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Updated: Oct. 27, 2006, 12:07 PM ET
SPECIAL PREVIEW EDITION
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| ANALYST | COMMENT |
 MarcStein ESPN.com |
I said it and I stand by it: Nellie's return makes the Warriors a playoff team. The direction of the league -- with its smaller lineups, inviting lanes and faster tempos -- has never favored his coaching style more. DIVISION RANK: 3 | CONFERENCE RANK: 8 |
 ChrisSheridan ESPN.com |
We like Chris Mullin as a person, but not as an executive. He wasn't proactive in shaking up his roster over the summer, and we don't expect him to last long if Don Nelson's squad drops too far below .500. DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 14 |
 JimO'Brien ESPN.com |
Don Nelson is a master at small ball and creating matchup headaches. The Warriors had better score a ton of points because they are going to struggle at the defensive end again this year (20th in FG% defense last season). DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 12 |
 TimLegler ESPN.com |
Not even Nellie's unconventional genius can overcome a conference this good. But if Baron Davis can stay on the court, they have a chance. Dajuan Wagner will battle Amare Stoudemire for the comeback player of the year. DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 15 |
 ScoopJackson ESPN.com |
Last year, they were my sleeper squad and they sold me out. Why I'm rolling with GSW again this year? I'm dumb. Plus Don Nelson has shown he can turn point guards into point gods. I'm trynna pray to Baron Davis this year. DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 9 |
 JohnHollinger ESPN.com |
Nellie's back, but I don't know how they'll get any stops with a frontcourt of Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy. Throw in the annual injury to Baron Davis, and the league's longest playoff drought will head for Year 13. DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 12 |
 ChadFord ESPN.com |
Nellie will make them entertaining, but can he make them winners? With Murphy at center and Dunleavy at four, the answer is no. Even a great coach can't change the Warriors' losing ways overnight. DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 11 |
 RicBucher ESPN Mag |
The Suns perfected small ball but Don Nelson introduced it. He will help the maligned -- Baron Davis, Mike Dunleavy -- show off their talent, and they, in turn, will embrace his game plan with the fervor of the possessed. On such alliances are playoff berths won. DIVISION RANK: 3 | CONFERENCE RANK: 7 |
 ChrisBroussard ESPN Mag |
Nellie was a great hire, but you know the catalyst, B. Davis, will go down at some point. If he stays healthy -- the refrain again this season -- the Warriors could be tough. DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 13 |
 GregAnthony ESPN.com |
Don Nelson is going to have this team improved with its ability to score, but the question with this team revolves around defending the paint and scoring in the paint. DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 12 |
| Average ranks |
DIVISION: 4.6 | Standings CONFERENCE: 11.3 | Standings |
| STARTERS | ANALYSIS |
 Baron DavisPoint Guard 6-3 | 215 |
Tim Hardaway talent still eclipses CWebb 'tude. Or so Nellie prays. |
 Jason RichardsonShooting Guard 6-6 | 225 |
Team leader in Baron's absence vows not to abdicate. |
 Mickael PietrusSmall Forward 6-6 | 215 |
First order of business: Flip that 0.8:1.5 A-to-TO ratio. |
 Mike DunleavyPower Forward 6-9 | 230 |
Nellie's answer to "Is he a 2 or a 3?" Play him at the 4. |
 Troy MurphyCenter 6-11 | 245 |
Sure, tons of PFs are migrating to C. Most can block a shot, though. |
| Bench: New coach says FT% determines PT. Three starters shoot less than 70 percent. So Monta Ellis, Ike Diogu and Dajuan Wagner better stay loose. | |
ESPN The Magazine's NBA Preview hits newsstands October 25.
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Player efficiency rating projection: 15.57 vs. NBA avg.: +0.57 Warriors profiles |
Scouting report: Biedrins still needs to add more muscle, but he's reasonably sized for a center and should throw his weight around more. First, he'll need to internalize the contact rules in the post. Right now he just shoves his man in the back any time he catches on the block, and as a result he averaged nearly a foul every five minutes.
Offensively, Biedrins can finish around the basket, as his shooting mark attests, but he needs to be more active. His usage rate was only 58th among centers, which might be partly explained by the tunnel vision of the Warriors' guards but also had something to do with his own inability to get to open spots on the floor. He also could use some time with Pete Newell figuring out how to score in the post.
2006-07 outlook: With Adonal Foyle's continued ineffectiveness and rookie Patrick O'Bryant's inexperience, the time is ripe for Biedrins to claim a much greater role in the Warriors' frontcourt. Biedrins would need to improve quite a bit to provide a quality solution, but since he's only 20 years old, he just might do it. Don't look for him to shoot so well from the field, or so badly from the line, but if he cuts down on the fouls and picks up the rebound rate another notch, he could be one of this year's pleasant surprises.
What's your take on the possibility that Don Nelson will start Dunleavy at power forward and Murphy at center?
63.0% That's why he's a genius!
37.0% Give me a break!
What would it take for you to get a tattoo of the Warriors' logo on your chest?
Guess who was the head coach of the Warriors the last time they made the playoffs? (Hint: It wasn't Mike Montgomery, Eric Musselman, Brian Winters, Dave Cowens, Garry St. Jean, PJ Carlesimo, Rick Adelman, or even Bob "NBA Cares" Lanier.)
That's right: Don Nelson. Nellieball is back in the Bay Area and Warriors Nation is thinking playoffs. A first-round playoff sweep? We're Warriors fans -- we'll take it!
And that tattoo of the Warriors logo? We're the most loyal fans in the entire NBA -- we each already sport more of those than all of Allen Iverson's tats combined. "Unstoppable baby!"
• Atma Brother No. 1 and Fantasy Junkie of Golden State of Mind
| DON NELSON COACHING FILE |
 Experience: 27 yearsRecord: 1,190-880 Playoffs: 70-85 NBA titles: 0 Coach's profile |
One challenge Don Nelson will have in his first season will be to convince his team that they don't have to wait for him to call a play before they shoot the ball. It won't be a tough sell.
Baron Davis and Co. need to lift their shooting percentages, and Nellie's feel for allowing guys to "do their thing" should improve those numbers.
Nelson does need to figure out ways to win close games, as the Warriors lost 14 of 21 games decided by three or fewer points.
– David Thorpe
The most intriguing players are the youngest. Biedrins is only 20 and is a 62 percent career shooter who can rebound and block shots, although he's still very rough around the edges.
Ellis is 21 and shows lots of promise as a Sam Cassell-type scoring guard, while another 2005 second-round draft pick, Chris Taft, is also 21 and played very well at the start of last season before back trouble ended his season.
But the best of the group is probably Diogu, who is potentially a stud low-post scorer at just 6-8 thanks to his long arms and variety of moves. The 23-year-old could end up pushing Murphy for a starting job this year and, longer term, may make him expendable.
Other younger players could also take steps forward. Mickael Pietrus is 24 and Dunleavy is 26; both were disasters last season but each could perform substantially better. And Richardson has played so long that it's hard to remember he's just 25.
Sleeper: This may be the year Mickael Pietrus gets to regularly showcase some of the ability that he's given fans glimpses of over the past three years.
He's already been named the starter at small forward, which is critical for a player who has never had his coach's confidence. His numbers should increase across the board, possibly making him worthy of your final roster spot.
Bust: Dajuan Wagner's return to the NBA is a nice story, but his poor shooting percentage and low assist totals don't make him an attractive option. He may provide the Warriors with a boost off the bench this season, but he'll play behind Baron Davis and Jason Richardson, so he won't play enough minutes to be worth your time.
– Keith Lipscomb | Fantasy Hoops Index
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