Each week on ESPN.com, Dr. Jack Ramsay delves into his mailbag and answers questions from users. Here is his latest installment. Send your e-mails by clicking on the file to the right!
Don't trade Terrell
Chauncey Billups did a wonderful job filling in for Terrell Brandon while he was out with an injury. I think that he is a more energetic player and pushes the ball up the floor better than Terrell while still having a high assist-to-turnover ratio. I was wondering if the Timberwolves are pondering, or if they should ponder, trading Brandon for anything since he has already expressed a desire to play less?
Adam, Aitkin, Minn.
Dear Adam,
Billups did a great job filling in for Brandon, but now that Terrell is back, he rightfully returns to the starting lineup. Brandon is a more consistent scorer and has the best assist/turnover ratio in the league (about seven-to-one). There’s room for both, however. Putting their recent performance at Detroit aside, the T-Wolves are having an excellent season and their depth at guard (Billups, Brandon, Wally Szczerbiak and Anthony Peeler) is one of the reasons. I don’t expect them to trade any of that group.
Growing pains
Why would any NBA team waste a draft pick on a player who can play only 25 or so games? These high school players this year have been so invisible! Why the heck did they make the decision to come out in the first place if they weren't in good enough shape to play in more than 20 games? These players should be developing their talent in college instead of wasting their time and teams' draft picks in the NBA, don't you think?
Andy, Knoxville, Tenn.
Dear Andy,
The reason the young high schoolers are not playing more is not a matter of conditioning. They’re all in good shape. It’s the difficulty in adjusting to the NBA game that overwhelms them. Teams take a calculated risk in signing young talent, hoping that they’ll have a strong base for the future. Among rookies Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry and Tony Parker -- all without college experience -- only Parker is making any kind of impact. Parker, only 19, had the advantage of playing pro basketball in Europe, making the transition easier. You must remember that Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady and Jermaine O’Neal all went this route -- and turned out pretty good.
Nash is Mav-elous
Could I get your input on why Steve Nash has been able to make the turn to an elite point guard? Also, what are his chances of making the All-Star team?
Dustin Street, Vancouver, B.C.
Dear Dustin,
I asked Steve that question last season. His answer was that for the first time in his career he was injury free and could do things on the court that his injuries prevented him from doing. I think that is definitely a part of his dramatic turnaround. Other factors include playing for Don Nelson, a coach who promotes a wide-open scoring game; having scorers like Dirk Nowitzki and Michael Finley on his team; and the confidence he has attained in finding that he can do the things he does. He’s having a great season and deserves a spot on the All-Star team.
Dumars for the Hall
You mentioned recently your picks of current players that will make the Hall of Fame someday. What about players who recently retired? To be more specific: Joe Dumars, Mark Aguirre, Adrian Dantley, Rolando Blackmon and Tom Chambers. I think all of them should be in the hall way before showboats like Tracy McGrady or Kobe Bryant.
Drew Hoekstra, Gulfport, Miss.
Dear Drew,
Of the recently retired players you mentioned, I’d say that Joe Dumars has the best chance of being elected to the Hall of Fame. The others were all great players, but Joe was special for his part in Detroit’s back-to-back championships. The current players that I mentioned haven’t made it yet and must continue to expand on the level of their play to make the Hall. But my guess is that they will.
The numbers game
Over the last 10 years, there has been a mini-revolution in regards to viewing baseball statistics. Stats such as batting average and RBI, which held great importance, have been devalued some as opposed to on-base percentage and slugging percentage, in terms of measuring a player's individual performance. Is there any particular NBA statistic you feel gets overlooked by the general public that better quantifies the contributions of an individual to a team? Or is the NBA a league where observation of intangibles is the only way to truly determine the best players?
Patrick, Boston
Dear Patrick,
Some stats that the NBA routinely keeps help to measure a player’s true worth to his team. The assist/turnover ratio is critical for all players, but point guards in particular. Capable points should have a ratio of at least three-to-one, while most coaches are satisfied if their centers and big forwards keep a positive ratio -- that is, have more assists than TOs -- (most do not). Field-goal percentage is also a significant stat. Big men who work mostly in the basket area should be around 50 percent; you’d like those at the perimeter to shoot 45 percent or better. Offensive and total rebounds and blocked shots are also significant and appear on the game stat sheet. The league periodically releases other pertinent stats -- like rebounds and blocked shots per minute played -- that help rate the performance of bench players.
But the most informative details are kept by assistant coaches, who chart just about everything that each player does during the course of a game. These stats are seldom made public, but include these defensive acts: challenging jump shooters without a foul; providing weak-side help; recovering from help D; blocking out for rebounds; containing the dribbler; deflecting passes; taking charges; and transition D against the fast break. Offensive concerns: carrying out a play; setting screens; moving without the ball; advancing the ball; making appropriate passes; committing offensive fouls and other causes of a turnover.
Many teams have a plus-minus system that evaluates every player in each game in these areas. These findings are reviewed by the coach with his players before the next team practice. Most teams also rate players by the score variance during the time they are in the game. This information gives a more definitive picture of who’s doing what than one gets from looking at the final stat sheet.
Sixers stick out
Hi, Dr. Jack, I always look forward to the mailbag! With the Wizards, Hornets, Pacers, Pistons, Magic and Sixers all practically running even Steven, which of these teams will most likely pull through to the postseason?
Jasper, The Netherlands
Dear Jasper,
It’s going to be a dog fight, Jasper. I think the Sixers will certainly make it, but after that it’s a struggle that may not be decided until the last day of the regular season. If I had to make the other choices right now, I’d pick the Hornets, Magic and Pacers to join New Jersey, Boston, Milwaukee, Toronto and Philly in the East. But I wouldn’t be shocked if MJ’s Wizards and Jerry Stackhouse’s Pistons make it either. It’s going to be wild down the stretch.
Trade watch
How come there have not been any trades in the NBA so far?
Brian Stooksbury, Knoxville, Tenn.
Dear Brian,
Trades usually take place as the deadline nears. Teams wait to see if they can do better than what has been proposed, then pull the trigger when they think they’ve gotten the most they can get. I think that there will be a flurry of trades as we near the deadline in February.
AI, Kobe on D
Allen Iverson has been criticized about his defense. I've watched many games, and he is a very competent defender. On the other hand, Kobe Bryant has been praised for his ability to guard all kinds of players. I didn't see the NBA Finals last year, but in the majority of matchups before that, AI burned Kobe. What do you think about their defense?
Bobby Raul, Houston
Dear Bobby,
I’d rate Kobe the better defender. AI is an excellent ball stealer, not good as a one-on-one, but I don‘t consider him a weak defender . Kobe isn’t as good a ball theft, but usually very strong defending his man. I saw Kobe do a great job on Allen a couple of years ago, but AI has also lit him up on occasion. In last year’s Finals, Derek Fisher and Tyronn Lue did most of the defensive work on Iverson -- and did quite well. Iverson is so quick and athletic, it’s hard to shut him down completely on offense.
Williams is the one
If the year ended now with the standings fairly much as is (at least for the last-place Chicago Bulls), and assuming the Bulls win the first overall draft pick, who should they pick? Should it be Yao Ming or Jason Williams? Is Yao Ming a better prospect than their duo of Curry and Chandler? Can a first five of Williams, Ron Mercer, Ron Artest, Curry and Chandler challenge in three years?
Little Jack, Sydney
Dear Little Jack,
If the Bulls get the No. 1 pick, they should take Williams. They need a point guard badly, and Williams will have an easy adjustment to the NBA game after his playing experience at Duke. The Bulls have Chandler and Curry as their future big men, so there is no need to bring in Yao Ming, who will duplicate their big-man talent and will need a couple of years to adapt to the NBA.
A Sixth sense for Redd?
What are your thoughts on the recent play of Michael Redd? Any chance for Sixth Man of the Year considerations?
Ville, Kotka, Finland
Dear Ville,
Redd has played very well as a backup point and two-guard. He’s a big guard (6-foot-6), scores double digits, has a nice handle (two-to-one assist-turnover ratio), shoots well from the field (47 percent) and free-throw line (83 percent) and is a pesky defender. He was a real find for the Bucks at the 43rd pick in the 2000 draft, but I doubt that he’ll get strong consideration as Sixth Man this year.
