Raising draft age limit would hurt NBA

On Monday night in Indianapolis, Duke's Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow will try to win a national championship in what almost certainly will be their final NCAA game before becoming lottery picks in the 2015 NBA draft.

If commissioner Adam Silver had his way, however, both Okafor and Winslow would return to school to try to repeat or avenge their loss.

The NBA's age limit figures to be a contentious part of the next collective bargaining agreement negotiations between the league and its players (either side can opt out of the CBA to renegotiate, and potentially initiate a work stoppage, in summer 2017).

Since taking office, Silver has made no secret of his desire to expand the current "one-and-done" arrangement and keep American players from entering the draft until two years after their high school graduation. New National Basketball Players Association president Michele Roberts has pushed back on a possible change, telling espnW.com she's "completely against it."

The age limit has been analyzed in many ways, including in my study last year that suggested players develop faster by entering the NBA rather than returning for their sophomore season. But I'm not sure anyone has addressed the question of whether it would be better for the league's talent pool to keep players in college another year, a scenario my wins above replacement player (WARP) ratings are uniquely suited to answer.