The Golden State Warriors are 7-0, the NBA's only undefeated team. That includes five wins against 2015 playoff teams and an average scoring margin of 18.3 points per game.
For the most part, it's been blowout city: Opponents have usually been left for dead before the fourth quarter, and Golden State fans are noticeably uncomfortable when the team is not leading by at least 10 points.
The results have been so ridiculous that seven games into the season, we're left to ask: Is this the greatest team ever?
Getting better?
Stephen Curry has proclaimed this version of the Warriors better than last season's championship team. (Maybe it's the coaching change? Just kidding, Coach Kerr. Get well.)
Golden State's improvement might be the most remarkable fact of all. ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), our new NBA power ranking system, has the Warriors as the team that has most outperformed preseason expectations, with the largest increase in BPI since the start of the season.
Curry himself, the reigning MVP, has lifted his game in just about every metric that matters, and seems to have figured out that he truly cannot take too many 3-point shots. As for the supporting cast, the Warriors just seem to get deeper by the game.
Day 14 of the season might seem a bit early to consider a team a candidate for "greatest ever." Yet with such an amazing start, it's worthwhile to consider the evidence.
Best start ever?
Two teams in NBA history have started the season with 15 straight wins: the 1948-49 Washington Capitols and the 1993-94 Houston Rockets. The Warriors have an opportunity to blow past that mark.
We can use BPI to simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times to give us some insight into just how likely that is.
For the next eight games, the Warriors have an average chance to win of 81 percent, and that includes a rematch against the Clippers in Los Angeles on Nov. 19 that the Warriors have "only" a 51 percent chance to win.
Do the math and you get a 13 percent chance of a 15-0 start and a 12 percent chance they can break the record for wins to start a season.
While that is far from a guarantee, the Warriors' chances will likely increase with each win, with the tipping point being the Clippers game. Then Golden State might have an opportunity to set the record at home versus the Lakers on TNT two days before Thanksgiving.
Best finish ever?
On the far horizon beyond this winning streak, the more daunting and far more important number is 72. As NBA fans know, the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls of Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen and Phil Jackson went 72-10, becoming the only team in NBA history to reach the 70-win threshold.
Yes, for Golden State, 72 is in play. Based on the BPI season simulations, the Warriors have a 3.9 percent chance of winning at least 72 games.
That does not seem like a very high probability -- and it isn't. But considering how many times teams have failed to reach that mark over the years, a 1-in-26 chance is remarkable indeed.
No other team in the NBA reaches 72 wins in any of our 10,000 simulations of this season. And as a point of comparison, the Warriors have a better chance of winning 72 or more games than the Philadelphia 76ers have of winning 27, according to the BPI.
Best BPI ever?
Given that both 15-0 and 72-10 are in play, the Warriors certainly have a chance to get into the "greatest team ever" conversation. We can get a slightly better sense of whether they truly belong by looking at the BPI over the years -- our metric that goes beyond wins to measure a team's true quality.
BPI data goes back to the 1992-93 season, and in that time span, the highest recorded BPI for an entire season was put up by Jordan's Bulls of 1995-96, at 13.0. That means they would have defeated an average NBA team by 13 points on a neutral court. The next-best BPI, by the way, was registered by the next season's repeat champs, the 1996-97 Bulls, who won 69 games and finished with a BPI of 11.7.
Last season's Warriors team finished with a BPI of 9.1 and this season's edition has climbed already to 9.5. If the Warriors were to finish at 9.5, that would rank as the sixth-best BPI in the 24 seasons we have for the metric.
If the Warriors continue playing at this level, their BPI can continue to rise. Since they are just 3.5 points behind the record, the Warriors have a chance to finish with the highest recorded BPI.
It won't be easy, but considering Golden State showed on Saturday it could win by nine despite shooting as poorly as 20 percent from 3-point range (at Sacramento), the Warriors could reach heights that even those Bulls teams didn't.
Getting it done
The numbers help us with context, but they are meaningful only because they represent greatness on the court. For the Warriors to continue to perform at such a remarkable level, what needs to happen?
First, they need to play the game as only they can. This season, that has meant their five leading players (by minutes) each putting up more than four 3s per 100 possessions -- despite Saturday night's awful shooting in a win at Sacramento, the Warriors are still hitting 38 percent of their 3-point attempts. In contrast, the Rockets, who shoot even more 3s, are making just 30 percent of them.
Second, they have to continue to play great defense. The Warriors are a ton of fun to watch, but their ability to stop other offenses is equally impressive. Golden State's defensive BPI is 4.4, tops in the league. Being top three in both offense and defense is a great formula for winning a second straight NBA title.
Third, and arguably most important, the Warriors have to stay healthy. That deep, improved bench ultimately won't matter too much if Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green aren't around to carry Golden State.
November cannot tell us whether this is the greatest team ever -- that's a "title" that can only be awarded at the end of the postseason. But it's remarkable that after just seven games, we already know how much is at stake over the next seven months.