Which teams have the hardest and easiest schedules in 2016-17? And how much will that affect their record?
Unlike in college basketball, where strength of competition is so important, teams within the two NBA conferences play a largely uniform set of opponents. However, there are underlying schedule factors that can have a tangible effect on a team's record.
To create these rankings, we created a baseline forecast for each team by averaging the projections from SCHOENE, real plus-minus (RPM) and the ESPN Summer Forecast. For each game, we calculated the probability of winning for the two teams based on the baseline forecasts, home court and other scheduling factors -- rest, road back-to-backs, travel, etc. We used those probabilities to run the schedule through a simulator.
The differences between the average simulation results and our baseline forecasts suggest who benefited from the 2016-17 schedule.
Here is a ranking of the each team's schedule difficulty, from hardest to easiest, taking all this into consideration.
1. Brooklyn Nets (5.32 extra losses)
The Nets are early in their rebuild and the schedule does them no favors. They are tied for the fewest games with two or three days of rest (13) and while they play just 14 back-to-backs, only four of those have the back end at the Barclays Center.
2. Philadelphia 76ers (5.07 extra losses)
The worst of it: The Sixers have their one four-games-in-five-days cluster in early December and it's a doozy. The fourth game is in Memphis after the Sixers play in Philly three of the previous four nights.
3. Phoenix Suns (4.69 extra losses)
The Suns don't get to play themselves and meet the Nets and Sixers only four times in total -- plus they share a division with the Warriors, Clippers and Blazers. Luckily, eight of Phoenix's 14 back-to-backs are at home.
4. Los Angeles Lakers (4.37 extra losses)
The Lakers share the same divisional reality as the Suns with some added complications. Just three of the Lakers' 16 back-to-backs finish at home.
5. Golden State Warriors (4.28 extra losses)
The Warriors have the league's best baseline forecast, but their schedule threatens to tamp them down a bit. An NBA-high 16 of Golden State's 17 back-to-backs finish on the road.
6. Sacramento Kings (3.10 extra losses)
The Kings' 18 back-to-backs are tied for the most in the league, but five of those finish in Sacramento. Somehow the Kings project to spend about 10,000 fewer miles in the air than the Warriors, their geographic neighbor.
7. New Orleans Pelicans (1.86 extra losses)
The Pelicans have a moderate schedule structurally and in fact are tied for a league-high 19 games with two or more days' rest. Alas, they also share a division with the Spurs, Mavs, Rockets and Grizzlies.
8. Denver Nuggets (1.20 extra losses)
The Nuggets will always have the high-altitude advantage at home, but this season only three teams have a lower percentage of their games coming against teams with less rest than their opponent (45.7 percent).
9. Dallas Mavericks (0.93 extra losses)
The Mavericks have a fairly unremarkable schedule across the board, though they do rank a surprising 10th in projected air miles. That's unexpected because not only is Dallas in the middle of the country, but several conference opponents are within relative proximity.
10. New York Knicks (0.30 extra losses)
The Knicks will enjoy a more or less neutral schedule. Their one four-in-five cluster is soft: In January, they go from Toronto to New York, have a day off, then play in Boston and New York back to back. The joys of East Coast city density.
11. Orlando Magic (0.08 extra wins)
No team figures to have less of a schedule effect than the Magic.
12. Miami Heat (0.47 extra wins)
Considering the Heat are stuck way down in South Florida, their travel looks pretty favorable. However, Miami has a league-high 33 games against teams that will be more rested.
13. Memphis Grizzlies (0.82 extra wins)
Eight of the Grizzlies' 17 back-to-backs finish in Memphis and they will play 12 road games on two or more days of rest. That's two more long-rest road matches than any other team in the league.
14. Los Angeles Clippers (1.23 extra wins)
As always the Clippers will spend a lot of time in the air (fourth in estimated air miles), but only two teams will play a higher portion of their games with a rest advantage over their opponent.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves (1.25 extra wins)
The Wolves are young and energetic, and the schedule should help their athletes stay sharp. Minnesota is one of the 10 teams without a four-in-five cluster.
16. Milwaukee Bucks (1.26 extra wins)
The Bucks have six instances of home games played on three days' rest, two more than any other team. Only one team will have more overall games with a rest advantage.
17. Charlotte Hornets (1.31 extra wins)
The Hornets have a league-low 11 games with a rest advantage. Every other team has at least 15.
18. San Antonio Spurs (1.46 extra wins)
As always, the bugaboo on the Spurs' schedule is February's annual Rodeo Trip. But this season's edition could be worse than it is. San Antonio has eight straight road games but there is only one back-to-back set and the All-Star break falls during that stretch.
19. Washington Wizards (1.51 extra wins)
Only Chicago is slated for fewer estimated air miles than the Wizards and only Memphis has fewer games on zero or one day of rest.
20. Houston Rockets (1.65 extra wins)
The Rockets' schedule effect comes out well in the simulations, but Houston is tied with Golden State for fewest games on two or three days of rest (three).
21. Chicago Bulls (2.13 extra wins)
The Bulls are slotted for the fewest estimated air miles in the league. Also, seven of Chicago's 17 back-to-backs finish at home.
22. Cleveland Cavaliers (2.18 extra wins)
The Cavs have a lot of favorable schedule factors even though they play in the division with the highest average baseline win forecast. No team will play more than Cleveland's 28 games with a rest advantage.
23. Detroit Pistons (2.49 extra wins)
The Pistons rank 26th in estimated air miles and fifth in games with a rest advantage.
24. Oklahoma City Thunder (2.59 extra wins)
The Thunder rank sixth in air miles, 27th in games with a rest advantage and last in games with two or more days of rest. Yet it comes out all right in the end. OKC must get the right teams at the right times.
25. Indiana Pacers (2.63 extra wins)
The Pacers have a league-high nine of their 17 back-to-backs finish at home. Also, Indiana projects to have a league-high 64 plane trips but figure to rank just 25th in air miles. Lots of short trips.
26. Atlanta Hawks (2.75 extra wins)
The Hawks are tied for the most back-to-backs (18) but rank high on the lists for overall long-rest games (16) and long-rest games on the road (nine).
27. Portland Trail Blazers (2.85 extra wins)
The Blazers must deal with the reality of being isolated as the only team in the Pacific Northwest. (There used to be three!) Portland is slated for the fewest plane trips (56, tied with the Lakers) but projects to log a league-high 56,655 miles in the air.
28. Toronto Raptors (3.10 extra wins)
The only thing remarkable about the Raptors' schedule is that it's laden with Atlantic Division foes, an advantage shared by the Celtics. No other division has a lower average baseline projected win total.
29. Utah Jazz (3.29 extra wins)
The Jazz have eight of their 17 back-to-backs finish in Salt Lake City, and only one team has fewer three-in-four clusters.
30. Boston Celtics (3.34 extra wins)
The Celtics get plenty of the Knicks, Nets and Sixers. Seven of their 17 back-to-backs finish in Boston. They have 17 long-rest games and their 25 games with a rest advantage ranks third. It all adds up.