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NBA draft projections: Most likely All-Stars and player comps

Richard Shiro/AP PHOTO

Everyone knows Zion Williamson is the best player in the 2019 NBA draft. But is he the best prospect in the past two drafts? Yes.

Past five? Yes.

Past 10? It depends how you look at it, respectively.

ESPN's NBA draft projections show Williamson has the most upside of any prospect to enter the NBA draft in the model's history, which dates back to 2005.* His average projections rank third among all players in the same time span, trailing only Greg Oden and Anthony Davis.

Per the model, Williamson has a 72 percent chance to reach an All-Star level of play in his first four seasons -- better than the same model would have said for the likes of Davis, Kyrie Irving or Kevin Durant at the time of their drafts.

And as for the rest of the class of 2019? Williamson blows them out of the water. No other player in this year's class has even a 30 percent chance to reach an All-Star level, matching the perception that the drop-off from the first pick in this year's draft to the second is precipitous. In fact, if the second pick ends up being Ja Morant, the drop-off is even steeper (more on Morant in a minute).

Where are these numbers coming from?