The assumption was one of doom and gloom, of RPIs falling and losses mounting and postseason opportunities shrinking.

Someone forgot to tell WAC basketball teams, is all.

Three years after its split with the eight teams that now form the Mountain West Conference, those bouncing balls and shooting jumpers for WAC programs are doing just fine, thank you.

Last season, the WAC sent two teams (Fresno State and Hawaii) to the NCAA Tournament, had one (Tulsa) win an NIT championship and another (Texas-El Paso) earn and NIT bid.

WAC PROJECTIONS

Here are ESPN.com's WAC projections a previews of each team: 1. Fresno State 2. Tulsa 3. Hawaii 4. UTEP 5. SMU 6. Louisiana Tech 7. Boise State 8. San Jose State 9. Rice 10. Nevada ALL-WAC TEAM G: Predrag Savovic Hawaii, Senior F: Chris Jefferies Fresno State, Junior F: Abe Jackson, Boise State Boise State, Senior F: Kevin Johnson Tulsa, Junior C: Melvin Ely Fresno State, Senior MOST VALUABLE PLAYER Melvin Ely, Fresno State NEWCOMER OF THE YEAR Carlton Baker, San Jose State

This season, things could be even better.

And it all begins with No. 25 Fresno State.

"Certainly, it is a program that gives our conference name recognition, one with a nationally-known coach in Jerry Tarkanian," said WAC commissioner Karl Benson. "When people talk about WAC basketball, they begin with Fresno State.

"As a conference, we have been able to maintain our postseason success after the split of teams. Are we better today as a 10-team league than we were at 16? I think so. Utah had that great Final Four run for us in 1998, but I think many expected us to fall off when they left with the (other seven), that we wouldn't have any firepower remaining.

"That hasn't happened."

Not at all. The WAC had as many as four teams ranked among the Top 50 in RPI last February, and if not for a late stumble by SMU (loser of its final six games), could have received more postseason exposure. Now, there is no question which team will stand at the front of the line this season, the league's banner draped from its back.

Ten conference coaches voted for a preseason favorite.

Nine picked Fresno State.

"I was a little surprised at that, but I sure hope it all holds true," said Tarkanian, who wasn't allowed to vote for his team. "Right now, we don't have much depth, but I like how the guys are working.

"Hawaii and Tulsa also have a chance to be very good and right there near the top ... I think our post players will carry us, at least in the beginning. But by the time we get to conference, I think we'll be a pretty balanced team.

"Our kids like being the favorite. They invite it. They're a very confident bunch. They don't think anyone can beat them. That's good, if you can back it all up."

It all begs a question: In a mid-major conference, is it better for national perception to have one outstanding team like Fresno State followed by a few good ones instead of three or four solid programs like Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico atop the Mountain West?

"I'm not sure," said Benson. "I do think we're in for a challenge this season going from nine teams to 10. We add Boise State and Louisiana Tech and lose a strong program like Texas Christian, which was consistently among the top 60 or 70 in RPI.

"Sure, it might not be the most ideal way to put your conference on the map, but this is what we have transformed into. We were rated the nation's seventh best conference last season. Now, we need our two new teams -- who I believe are very good fits -- to help us maintain our standards.

"I still think we have a chance to get as many as three teams into the NCAA Tournament., to continue the kind of postseason success some of our programs have had."

Three is likely a stretch.

Well, maybe.

Hawaii is picked second to the Bulldogs and it is Riley Wallace's team that shocked most by winning seven of its final nine games last season, including wins against TCU, Fresno State and Tulsa in the conference tournament.

The Rainbows lost to Syracuse in the first round of NCAAs.

"We finished 17-14, but needed to get hot there in the end to do so," Wallace said. "I think we'll be much more consistent from the beginning this season. The experience we gained last season by winning the conference tournament on someone else's floor is invaluable. Fresno State has to be the favorite with the players they have back, but I don't think winning (the conference) is going to come easy to anyone.

	Fresno State's Melvin Ely may be the best center in the country nobody knows about.

"We're not the only team that has trouble on the road in this league. Five teams last season had between six and eight losses in the conference. There isn't that much difference in talent between a lot of us."

So true, on either end of the spectrum. Change might be the one constant of WAC teams, but the haves and have nots throughout the standings remain the same. This is a league where any of four teams in a given year can sneak into a champions' role, while the bottom-dwellers annually oblige with sub-par records.

Translation: You know what you have in Nevada and Boise State and San Jose State as much (or more) so as Fresno State and Hawaii and Tulsa.

Then there are programs that could go either way, programs like Texas-El Paso and SMU.

The Don Haskins Center at UTEP is again shaking from the rafters, a passionate fan base having embraced the up-tempo style of coach Jason Rabedeaux. The Miners endured four losing seasons in five years before winning 23 games in 2000-01. Three years later, a fiery coach finally has his system in the place and the bodies to execute it.

Now, UTEP sits directly below the Fresnos on the conference ladder, but is not yet close enough to tough the Bulldogs.

"We accomplished a lot last season," said Rabedeaux. "But it is important that we don't settle. We need to build on last season. We need to continue improving. Our non-conference schedule is the toughest it has been in 10 years, which should help prepare us for the Fresnos and Hawaiis and Tulsas of our conference."

One preseason publication tabbed SMU's Mike Dement as the league's "Coach on the Hot Seat." There is good reason. Late-season collapses have defined recent times for the Mustangs, who are again good enough to make a run at the postseason.

But two years after the program appeared headed for playing an annual favorite's role, discipline and attitude problems have refused the Mustangs many rewards.

"I'm pleased with the competitive level this program has reached," said Dement, 96-78 in six seasons as SMU's coach. "I believe we have become a very respected team in the WAC. But now we have to take that next step, which has been the hardest for us.

"I really think you're looking at a very competitive league with Fresno State as the obvious favorite. That is an excellent team."

And yet perhaps more than anyone, Tulsa as the best chance of ruining Fresno State's championship dreams. First, the Golden Hurricane is very good, having won 26 games last season, the 26th being a rout of Alabama in the NIT final. Second, the conference tournament again returns to Reynolds Center.

If anything, the Fresno State-Tulsa rivalry has strengthened the WAC's national image.

"It really has helped solidify both sides of the conference in terms of proximity," Benson said. "A rivalry like this is important. It's valuable. It's positive. Games like those usually get on television and that helps everyone in the conference.

"Last season was a break-through of sorts for us. I think we're done surprising people. I think people know that if they're going to play us, they better be at their best."

WAC basketball.

It's doing just fine, thank you.

Ed Graney of the San Diego Union-Tribune is a regular contributor to ESPN.com. He can be reached at ed.graney@uniontrib.com.