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Wednesday, October 9
 
Defenses have the advantage in Dallas

By Jim Donnan
Special to ESPN.com

Having been a part of the Oklahoma-Texas game, I can tell you there is no bigger thrill in a regular-season game than this spectacular event. Half the stadium in burnt orange and half in crimson, not to mention 250,000 people at the Texas State Fair, create an atmosphere that you have to experience to believe.

This year's Red River Shootout has all the makings of a national championship prelude. The winner can expect to be in the Fiesta Bowl if it runs the table, but the loser could win out and probably not end up in Tempe. Here's the way I see it unfolding.

OU offense vs. Texas defense
Nate Hybl
Nate Hybl will need some protection if OU wants to beat Texas.
The Sooners have improved upon last year's miserable offense but have yet to prove they can operate efficiently against a strong defense like the one Texas has. Oklahoma must run the ball north and south and mix in a little misdirection to keep the Longhorns at home.

Quarterback Nate Hybl will use play-action, some screens and take an occasional shot down the field. A key here is whether the OU receivers can get off the line against the Horns' talented but young cornerbacks. Also look for Oklahoma to try to get Quentin Griffin the ball out of the backfield, because I don't believe Oklahoma will muster many yards on the ground.

To off-set that, OU tight end Trent Smith must make some possession receptions to keep the chains moving. Will Peoples, Antwone Savage and Curtis Fagan are all capable at receiver but they must be at their best getting off the press coverage of Texas.

The real downer for the Sooners since the national championship season in 2000 has been offensive line play. Hybl ran for his life all of last year and got hammered earlier this season against Alabama, so this is the day of reckoning for the O-line. Oklahoma must protect well and avoid sacks and lost yardage plays.

Texas defensive end Cory Redding has been double and triple-teamed on pass protection all year, but he should be able to get to Hybl and create some havoc. Defensive coordinator Carl Reese always comes up with a great plan and is one of the very best at creating pressure. UT will likely bail its corners to confuse Hybl and force him into some bad deep throws when he is expecting press coverage.

There is no question the Longhorns are talented in the back-end, but they must hold up and not give the Sooners anything easy. I give the edge to the Texas defense.

Texas offense vs. OU defense
Chris Simms
Chris Simms can silence his critics with a win over Oklahoma.
The whole football world will be watching Chris Simms on Saturday, whether it is fair to judge him on this game or not. A win would be just what the doctor ordered when it comes to getting people off his back, though.

He is a quality player with all the tools, and while most tend to focus on the negatives during his career, positives are that he is 20-4 as the Longhorns' starter, has thrown just three interceptions this year and has some great athletes surrounding him.

Texas has taken a more physical approach since the offense struggled against North Texas. Cedric Benson is a good back and is averaging 4.8 yards per carry, but he is not the kind of runner who can make defenders miss. Look for OU to gang-tackle and get after the UT running game with zone blitzes and linebacker run-throughs.

Simms will deploy several formations and try to isolate Roy Williams and Sloan Thomas in one-on-one coverage, particularly from the no-back set. I don't like to see Simms under center in this formation, but I'm not the coach. The Sooners should knock down some passes because Simms will take only three steps before looking to throw, and they will try to take away the inside routes on those empty formations. Texas will have to throw some fade patterns from these offensive formations.

Oklahoma's defense is tough and has some great players, but both Alabama and Missouri were able to move the ball on it. The key will be whether the Longhorns can get tough inside yards in the crunch and protect Simms well enough to for him to do some damage, and I give the edge to the Sooners' defense.

Special teams
Neither team has been outstanding on special teams. Texas is just 6-of-12 on field goal attempts while Oklahoma is only 5-of-8, but both have good return games and coverage. Here are some numbers to keep in mind that could make a difference in special teams decisions.

			OU	Texas
Turnover margin		+11	+8
3rd-down pct.		38.0	39.7
4th-down pct.		67.0	80.0
Penalties-Yds.		31-253	42-399

Coaches
Two high-profile coaches, Mack Brown of Texas and Bob Stoops of Oklahoma, lead their teams into this game. Just like Darrell Royal, Barry Switzer and Bud Wilkinson before them, Brown and Stoops will always be judged by the outcome of this game, and this rivalry will continue for years to come both on the field and on the recruiting trail.

Each teams is extremely well-coached, and as a former OU assistant it is hard for me to not pull for the Sooners. But having coached Mack Brown in college at Florida State I feel he needs this win more at this point in his career than Bob Stoops. I predict Texas will win in a tight game.

ESPN.com college football analyst Jim Donnan takes part in chats and makes observations on Saturdays as part of College GameDay Online.








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