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Friday, December 1
Big 12 title game key in bowl pairings

By Rod Gilmore
Special to ESPN.com

Hope you kept a little of the turkey leftovers for this weekend. The GameDay guys will kick us off Saturday morning and carry us through the SEC championship game and the all important Big 12 championship game. Let's check out the important aspects of the games this week:

No. 7 Kansas State vs. No. 1 Oklahoma
This game is not only the key to determining whether Oklahoma will face Florida State in the National Championship, but will also determine the fate of the Miami Hurricanes and the Oregon State Beavers. If Oklahoma wins, then the Sooners will face the Seminoles. Which will also mean Oregon State will likely receive a bid to the Fiesta Bowl, giving the Pac-10 a second team in the BCS (along with Washington) and another cool $13 million. If K-State wins, Miami will face Florida State in the title game and Oregon State will likely fall out of the Fiesta Bowl.


	QB Jonathan Beasley hopes to land K-State in a BCS bowl with a win over Oklahoma.

The weather is the first key to this game. If it's cold, it won't be a problem for either team. But if it's windy, Oklahoma's passing game could be hurt. Wind affects passing more than anything else -- especially if the QB doesn't have a powerful arm, which Josh Heupel does not have. My colleague John Mackovic coached at Arrowhead Stadium for several years and confirmed to me that wind -- not cold -- is the issue there.

Besides weather, the key for K-State is Jonathan Beasley. He didn't have a great game in the last meeting with Oklahoma. He can't carry the Wildcats, but he can hurt them if he plays poorly. K-State must block linebackers Rocky Calmus and Torrance Marshall so Beasley has a fighting chance on his option and off-tackle runs. Beasley must also get the ball to Quincy Morgan. Assuming Morgan and company catch the ball better than they did last time (I counted 6 drops), the Wildcats should be able to move the ball.

Conversely, the problem for K-State will be stopping Heupel and company from moving the ball. K-State was not able to pressure Heupel last time, although they tried several times early. The problem was that they tried to attack him up the middle and Heupel was essentially in punt formation -- they couldn't reach him. Expect K-State to use more zone coverage and to blitz Heupel less, which most teams have done lately with some success. However, they will still have to blitz Heupel on occasion. To do so effectively, they will have to overload one side and force Heupel to move to his right so as to make it difficult for him to throw across his body. Heupel, however, can break out and run just enough to kill you.

K-State is a very tough rematch for Oklahoma because the Wildcats have better athletes than the Sooners do, but I give the edge to Oklahoma because of Heupel. It seems to be his year.

No. 17 Auburn vs. No. 8 Florida
Although they'd never say it, this is the matchup Florida wanted in the SEC title game. Remember, Florida dominated Auburn earlier this year 38-7. It's doubtful the Mighty Gators wanted to see the Mississippi State team that blew them out earlier this year.

Once again, Florida should be able to throw the ball on Auburn and make big plays. Last time, Florida scored 35 points in 19 plays. Talk about explosion plays! The key matchup is Florida WR Jabar Gaffney against DB Larry Casher. Expect Auburn to give Casher help and double-bracket Gaffney. That won't stop QB Rex Grossman from finding other targets such as Reche Caldwell.

Auburn's best chance is Rudi Johnson. Remember, Mississippi State had a great deal of success running against Florida. If Johnson doesn't touch the ball 25 times, there is no way Auburn has a chance in this game. Yes, Ben Leard will need to make half a dozen key throws, but running is the key in this game. However, Florida is a better defensive team now than they were in September. DT Gerard Warren has been great inside and should clog things up in the middle.

Give a strong lean to the Mighty Gators in this game. Steve Spurrier will be in the BCS again.

Western Michigan at Marshall
This should be the year Marshall is finally unseated as the MAC champion, and Western Michigan should go on to represent the MAC in the Motor City Bowl. After all, Western. Michigan literally ran all over Marshall in a 30-10 win earlier this year (286 yards rushing). But, as Lee Corso would say, Not So Fast! With Gary Darnell being linked to the North Carolina job, everything is now up in the air for Western Michigan. How distracting has all of this been for the Broncos? Will Darnell coach Saturday? If Western Michigan wins, it's unlikely Darnell would coach in the bowl game. Will the team be motivated to send him out in style?

All of this gives Marshall a chance. However, the Herd will have to get much better play out of their defense than they got in the last game with Western Michigan. LB Max Yates and defensive linemen Paul Toviessi and Jimmy Parker must stop running back Robert Sanford, who has 1,500 yards on the season. Somehow Marshall will have to neutralize TE Mobolaji Afariogun, a good blocker and receiver. This may be too much for Marshall to overcome, unless Western Michigan is truly distracted by the Darnell situation.

Grambling vs. Alabama A&M
This is the second SWAC championship game since the conference went to the 10 team, two division alignment. It's not surprising former Super Bowl MVP Doug Williams' Grambling team got to this game, but it is surprising that Alabama A&M got here in its first season in the conference. You probably haven't seen these teams play since they don't get national exposure. However, the game will be fun and filled with big plays. Keep your eye on Grambling receiver Scott Anderson. He's a player.

Army vs. Navy
You have to watch this game. I always watch it. The stands are filled, the military uniforms are cool, and the games are usually intense and close. There is great history and pageantry in this game and this year there's a little added spice because 0-10 Navy is trying to avoid a winless season. Army isn't sitting much better at 1-9, but that one victory was an impressive win over Tulane. Check out the matchup between Navy FS Chris LePore and Army RB Michael Wallace. LePore is Navy's leading tackler, and Wallace is a first-team Conference USA running back. This is the key matchup.

ALSO SEE
Fowler: Two schools of thought on OU-K-State

Tirico: K-State has its chance

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