The more things change, the more they stay the same.
The BCS has altered its formula for the second time in three years, but the bottom line is this: there is still no playoff in college football. Many people hoped that last year's controversial result would pave the way for an overhaul of the current system. Instead, it just created a little tweaking.
For those who have been out of the loop this summer or out of the country for a few years, here's a simple look at the BCS -- what it is, what it does and how it has changed.
The BCS (Bowl Championship Series) is a title given to the grouping of the four major bowl games and the process which places eight of the nation's top teams into those games. It produces a No. 1 versus No. 2 national championship, which rotates annually between the four bowls.
|  | | Under the new formule, Miami and Ken Dorsey would have played OU in the Orange Bowl last year. |
The most recognized part of this system is the weekly rankings that ultimately determine which two teams are most deserving to play for the title. (Pause for laughter from Miami fans.) The rankings do not dictate which teams play in the other three games, although a new provision guarantees a spot to the third-place team. (Pause for laughter from Kansas State fans). The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC automatically receive six of the eight bids.
Others can play in the BCS bowls, though. Notre Dame must have at least nine wins AND and a top-12 final ranking to be eligible for selection. It must finish in the top six of the rankings to be automatically included. A champion of a non-BCS conference also receives automatic inclusion by finishing in the top six.
The BCS rankings are generated from a formula that combines two polls, eight computer ratings, schedule strength and number of games lost. The lower the total, the better. But don't be fooled into thinking that each component carries equal weight. Some parts are more important than others, and after the offseason adjustments to the formula, some parts are even more important than they used to be.
Poll average: Teams receive a point value for their average ranking between the media and coaches polls.
Each poll has always been significant because there are only two of them to be averaged (as opposed to eight computers). But after Miami placed second in both polls last season yet still finished third in the overall standings, it became obvious that poll ranking doesn't mean everything.
Computer average: Teams receive a point value for their rankings among eight computers. The best and worst ranking are each dropped, and the other six are averaged to get the team's number for this category.
The computers are certainly the X-factor of the BCS Rankings and have already been through a couple of evolutionary phases. Originally, there were only three ratings, and they were averaged with an adjusted deviation (if you don't know what that means, it's okay; very few people can identify both an adjusted deviation and pass interference). Before the 1999 season, the number of computer ratings increased to eight, which decreased the influence of each computer, and only the worst one was dropped to figure the average.
That alignment was in effect last year, when 11-1 Florida State used the nation's best scoring margin to reach No. 1 in five of the eight computers -- ahead of 12-0 Oklahoma. This gave the Seminoles an average computer ranking that vaulted them past Miami to No. 2 in the BCS standings. Much exception was taken to this result because the Hurricanes also had only one loss and had beaten Florida State in the regular season.
The BCS group has now tried to correct this perceived flaw in the system by diminishing the impact of scoring margin within the computers. Last year, seven of the eight considered margin of victory while rating teams. This year, only four will use it as a factor. As part of this process, two of last season's computers have been replaced.
Schedule strength points: Teams receive a point value based on the difficulty ranking of their schedule within Division I-A.
Strength of schedule carries more weight than just being a category of the formula, though; it is also factored into most of the computers in various degrees. Within the BCS schedule strength column, teams are ranked on the combined winning percentages of their opponents and their opponents' opponents. Each ranking is multiplied by .04 to give the teams a point value for schedule strength. A difference of 25 spots between teams in schedule ranking amounts to one point -- the equivalent of a one spot advantage in poll average.
Team losses: Teams receive a point for each game lost.
A loss already hurts a team in both the polls and computer ratings, but just for good measure, the BCS formula adds another point to the team total. This makes it even more difficult for a one-loss team to finish ahead of a major-conference undefeated team -- difficult, but still not impossible.
Now, take poll average, computer average, schedule strength points and team losses and add them all together. This gives you each team's BCS total points. In past years, the teams with the two lowest numbers in this column would have played each other for the national title. But not anymore...not necessarily. This year, we will be introduced to a fifth element of the BCS formula known as "bonus points."
Bonus points: Teams receive a point value for beating any opponents ranked in the BCS Top 15. (If a team has two wins over the same opponent, points will be given only once).
The Top 15 is established by using the total points column, then bonus points are awarded on a sliding scale -- from 1.5 for beating the No. 1 team all the way down to .1 for beating the No. 15 team. These points are then subtracted from that team's total points, giving a final total. The final total will now decide which two teams advance to the championship game.
If this element had been in effect last season, Miami would have jumped over Florida State because of bonus points and played Oklahoma for the national title. Wins over No.2 FSU and No. 5 Virginia Tech would have subtracted 2.5 points and given the Hurricanes a comfortable margin over the Seminoles, who would have managed only a 1.3 bonus.
So, that's it. Poll average + computer average + schedule strength points + team losses - bonus points = final total. The two lowest final totals meet for the national championship in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 3, 2002.
If you're already wondering who will be there, keep this in mind: in the first three years of the BCS, each championship game was played between a team ranked in the top two of the preseason polls and a team with a double-digit preseason ranking.
Study those polls and make your picks. The race is about to start.
Brad Edwards is a college football researcher for ESPN and one of the few people who actually understands the BCS formula. Edwards will have a weekly column on the BCS during the season.
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