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| Sunday, September 22 Updated: September 24, 9:51 AM ET Never too early to start thinking about the BCS By Brad Edwards Special to ESPN.com |
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It's been over nine months since a certain formula deemed Nebraska just slightly more worthy of playing for college football's national championship than either Colorado or Oregon. And it's been over eight months since most fans concluded that it wouldn't have mattered which team played Miami in the Rose Bowl. Not too many people have missed hearing about the BCS Rankings since then, but I'm afraid it's time to mention those words again. (Sorry, it's my job.)
Here Come The Irish
The school agreed to play in the Kickoff Classic many months ago but couldn't do so on the weekend of Aug. 24 because of mandatory freshman orientation at the university. After the game was instead scheduled for Aug. 31, the administration felt it would not be in the best interest of the student athletes to play 13 games in 14 weeks, so the decision was made not to use the extra game that was made available to teams by the NCAA this season. The result is that many teams in the country could conceivably be eligible for a BCS bid at 9-3, but Notre Dame would not be. The Irish now need 10 wins. In the four years of the BCS, four teams have placed in the final Top 12 with three losses, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that ND could find itself in a BCS quandary at 9-3. At that point, there would be three options:
There's a lot of football left to be played, but this has the makings of an interesting story.
BCS Projection
1. Miami
Another Tweak Last season, quality win bonus points were awarded for victories over teams that finished the season ranked in the BCS Top 15. Now, a quality win is defined as a victory over a Top-10 team in the final BCS Rankings. This means that a win over the No. 1 team is now worth 1.0 rather than 1.5 last year, and a win over the No. 10 team is worth 0.1 rather than 0.6. Colorado had two wins over Top-10 teams last season, so its 2001 bonus of 2.3 would be worth only 1.3 in the new system. Because neither Miami, Nebraska nor Oregon had a win over a Top-10 team last season, they would have received no bonus if this current formula had been in place. Remember that bonus is subtracted from the total points in the BCS since the object is to have a low score. What does that solve? Not much. While Oregon would have benefited last year and finished second, there is no guarantee that these adjustments haven't opened the door for some unforeseen controversy. The changes made over the last two years -- the introduction of quality win points and the total elimination of margin of victory as a factor in the computers (it is still a factor in the human polls) -- have shifted emphasis from how impressive you look to who you are actually playing. And while most would agree that this principle is valid, it could potentially fail to recognize one of the nation's top-two teams. In 1999, Virginia Tech dominated a schedule that was weakened because regular opponents such as Miami, Syracuse and Virginia simultaneously had a "down" season. The Hokies won all their games by an average of 31 points, but still barely finished ahead of once-beaten Nebraska in the final BCS Rankings. Had seven of the eight computers not been considering margin of victory that season, there is a good chance Tech might never have gotten the opportunity to play in what turned out to be the most exciting of the BCS Championship Games to date. The other unfortunate result of this shift of emphasis on schedule strength is that it significantly handcuffs teams from non-BCS conferences. In the past, the only way teams like Fresno State and BYU could offset the effect of several weak conference opponents was to impress the computers by beating them easily. Now, however, it is even more unlikely than in past years that a "Cinderella" team could make a run into the final BCS top six and be included in a major bowl game.
BCS Games of the Year
Oct. 12 Florida State at Miami Brad Edwards is a college football researcher for ESPN. Inside the BCS appears weekly. |
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