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Sunday, November 25
 
Florida suddenly in control of its Rose Bowl destiny

By Brad Edwards
Special to ESPN.com

Since Oct. 27, many college football fans have been anticipating a rematch in the Big 12 Championship Game.

And that's exactly what will take place this weekend at Texas Stadium -- only the uniforms will look a little different than originally expected.

Something happened on the way to Oklahoma-Nebraska II. The Huskers were dominated by Colorado, and just that one loss was all it took to keep them from winning even a division title. The Sooners then became victims of one of the biggest upsets in the last 10 years, falling at home to Oklahoma State and losing a chance to defend their conference and national championships.

Now, it will be Colorado and Texas battling for a second time this season -- this meeting for an automatic BCS berth. The Longhorns won easily in round one, but conventional wisdom says it will be much tougher this time around. Of course, conventional wisdom also said UT would not be preparing for a football game this weekend, so you just never know what might happen.

That's exactly the hope of Texas and a few other teams that now see themselves a little bit closer to their Rose Bowl dreams after the events of last weekend.

Stock up: Florida
Entering last week, the Gators needed some serious help to get back into the national championship mix. Entering this week, they have nothing to worry about but winning their remaining games.

The Big 12 upsets bumped idle Florida to No. 2 in the BCS Standings and will put the Gators in Pasadena for the New Year if they can beat Tennessee on Saturday and then win the SEC title game on Dec. 8. That strong closing schedule prevents any team from gaining ground on them unless they lose. And don't bet on it. Florida has won seven straight against Tennessee in Gainesville and is 5-1 in its last six SEC Championship Games.

Stock down: Nebraska
The Huskers went from 11-0 to being eliminated from the conference title chase in just a few forgettable hours on Friday. A very good season will unfortunately end with a sour taste for the Big Red.

Nebraska did salvage something on Saturday, though. Losses by Oklahoma and Michigan assured that the Huskers will be the only once-beaten, major-conference team available as an at-large selection for a BCS bowl. This makes it very likely they will still play in a high-profile January game.

There is also small consolation that the team remains mathematically in the running to play for the national championship, but it will require several upsets to help them get there. For starters, two of the following three teams -- Miami, Texas and Oregon - must lose on Saturday. Then, the Tennessee-Florida winner must fall in the SEC title game. It's not impossible, but don't call your travel agent just yet.

Under the radar
Though Miami and Florida are in the BCS driver's seat, don't write off teams like Texas and Oregon. There is a precedent for chaos. The last time there were this many significant games on a Saturday in early December was 1998 -- the debut season of the BCS. Entering that day, the top three teams in the standings were Tennessee, UCLA and Kansas State. The Vols rallied to win their game in the fourth quarter, but the Bruins and Wildcats both lost, sending previously No. 4 Florida State to play Tennessee for the national title. As long as there are still games to be played, anything can happen. Just ask Oklahoma State.

The new quality wins component of the BCS Standings credits a team for victories over opponents ranked in the Top 15, but it does NOT give any consideration for beating the same team twice. This rule will hurt Texas if it wins the Big 12 title on Saturday. The bonus that is currently being subtracted from the Longhorns' BCS point total comes from their win over Colorado on Oct. 20. But if they beat the Buffaloes again, that number will decrease. The loss would cause CU to fall in the BCS Standings, which in turn, lessens the reward given to any team that beat them. And those decreased bonus points are credited only once -- even to a team that beat Colorado twice. The game is not being played in vain, though. The Buffs will provide a significant boost to Texas' schedule strength, and a second win over them would be credited twice to the Longhorns within the computers.

BYU finally cracks the top 12 of the BCS Standings thanks to losses by Michigan and Washington, but the Cougars' chances to play in a major bowl are not looking much better. The Fiesta still has the option of preserving the Big Ten vs. Pac-10 bowl rivalry by taking Illinois to play Oregon, and there is now a possibility that Colorado (higher ranked and almost as close geographically as BYU) could also be available for selection. Also, don't overlook the fact that the Cougars' remaining opponents, Mississippi State and Hawaii, are both looking as strong as they've looked all season. Even if BYU can survive those games undefeated, they will still have to beat out either Nebraska or the Tennessee-Florida loser for an at-large bid to the BCS.

If the season ended today ...
Right now, it would be the Hurricanes against the Gators for the national title -- not exactly a dream matchup for the Rose Bowl, which has always had a West Coast participant. But even though these two Florida teams might not be ideal for attendance at a huge stadium in Southern California, they just might provide the most talent to have ever stepped on that field outside of a Super Bowl. It would certainly be a fun watch.

Official BCS Standings
Through Games of Nov. 24

1. Miami
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. Nebraska
5. Oregon
6. Tennessee
7. Colorado
8. Illinois
9. Oklahoma
10. Stanford

BCS Game of the Week: Tennessee at Florida
Simply put, there are only six teams left in the national title race, and these are two of them. The Vols don't necessarily control their own destiny as the Gators do, but winning this game and the SEC Championship might be enough to vault the Big Orange into the Rose Bowl. Tennessee at least has the opportunity to give Florida a loss, which is a much better position than having to hope someone else can pull an upset. A win would likely move the Vols up to at least third in next week's rankings.

Brad Edwards is a college football researcher for ESPN. Inside the BCS appears weekly.







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