Projecting the 64 teams that will comprise the NCAA Tournament field in January is like looking at a half-drawn picture. It's like seeing the first half of a movie and then writing the review, or declaring an election winner without all the ballots counted correctly.

CREME'S CROP

Using the same path we think the women's NCAA selection committee will take on Selection Sunday, here's how Charlie Creme sees each region of the 2003 NCAA Tournament bracket shaping up come March 16 (with top four seeds listed): East: Dayton, Ohio No. 1 UConn, No. 2 Kansas State, No. 3 Mississippi State, No. 4 Arizona Mideast: Knoxville, Tenn. Tennessee, LSU, Minnesota, Penn State Midwest: Albuquerque, N.M. Duke, North Carolina, Arkansas, Oklahoma West: Stanford, Calif. Texas Tech, Stanford, Purdue, Illinois Got a question for Creme? Click here to sound off. Creme's answers to the best questions will be posted later this week.

Oh wait -- we've done that.

With that in mind, however, here's our take on which teams will get their names called on Selection Sunday (based on information and games played through Jan. 19). Using the same formula and path we think the women's selection committee will take just less than two months from now when the real 2003 NCAA Tournament bracket is unveiled, we see Connecticut, Duke, Tennessee and Texas Tech as No. 1 seeds, although the Huskies will most likely stay in the East Region and bump the top-ranked Blue Devils to New Mexico in the Midwest. Also, the Lady Vols could end up facing another SEC rival in the Elite Eight, but we'll get to these controversial decisions in a minute.

We looked at each region as if the season were to end today and build a bracket using all the criteria the committee uses: overall record, RPI, conference record, strength of schedule, road record, nonconference record, record in the last 10 games, record against the RPI top-50, record against the RPI 51-100, bad losses (those against teams lower than 100 in the RPI), and, what we like to call, really bad losses (those against teams lower than 200 in the RPI).

Beware: This is still not an exact science, so the phrase, "if the season ended today," is a basis, but not a steadfast principle. There are exceptions, largely because the conference season is still very young. Over the years, for instance, teams that don't finish with at least a .500 conference record haven't gotten into the tournament very often.

Consider Michigan, which has opened the Big Ten season with a 1-3 record. The Wolverines might eventually completely play themselves out of consideration, but for now, a No. 19 ranking in the RPI is hard to ignore. Therefore, Michigan's in our bracket for now, but if the Wolverines might be in trouble if they don't get to .500 by March.

This is also a unique year because, for the first time, first- and second-round sites have been predetermined. That's great for planning, but adds the twist of trying to keep teams geographically near home when the schools under consideration aren't necessarily near the cities to which they might have to be sent. Of course, that's a challenge the committee faces as well. While we've followed the principle of keeping teams close to home as much as possible, it's not always going to work out.

When assigning first- and second-round sites, priority was given to the top-four seeds and never were any of those top-four seeds put at a geographic disadvantage in the opening two rounds. On a few occasions, even in this first go-round, teams had to be moved a seed in one direction or another to better serve geography or to avoid inter-conference matchups in the first three rounds. Of course, competitive fairness and balance were not compromised. That's still the first priority.

Some other topics that will be issues from now until Selection Sunday (And don't worry: If your team didn't make the cut, there's still hope. We'll forecast the bracket two more times between now and March 16):

CONFERENCE CALL

The Big 12 had a banner year last season, sending seven teams to the NCAA Tournament. But based on Charlie Creme's projections, that number will drop to just five invitations this March. Instead, Creme sees the Big Ten sending seven teams (up one from 2002) to the Big Dance, the Big East sending six (also up one) and the SEC again matching its record with eight teams in the tournament. A look at which teams will be representing the major conferences in our bracket projection: ACC (4): Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Wake Forest Big East (6): Boston College, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, Villanova Big Ten (7): Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue Big 12 (5): Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech Pac-10 (3): Arizona, Stanford, Washington SEC (8): Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt