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Tuesday, February 20
Updated: February 23, 11:03 AM ET
 
Beware of bad deals, free agent buyers

By John Clayton
ESPN.com

Free agency is football's hot stove league, but teams are doing a slow burn. Each year, teams dig deep into their checking accounts to sign players. Two or three years later, they feel they've overpaid and want to dump the player.

The classic example of this is Chiefs defensive tackle Chester McGlockton, who came to Kansas City as a restricted free agent in 1998. The Chiefs wanted him so much that they surrendered a second-round choice to the division rival Raiders and handed McGlockton a $7.5 million signing bonus and a $6 million a year salary.

Players on the Bubble
Veterans who could be released or traded because of salary cap issues:
Team Pos. Player
Ari. G Lester Holmes
Atl. Nobody
Bal.
OT
QB
OT
Harry Swayne
Tony Banks
Spencer Folau
Buf. DT
LB
RB
QB
QB
S
G
DE
Ted Washington
Sam Rogers
Antowain Smith
Doug Flutie
Rob Johnson
Henry Jones
Joe Panos
Phil Hansen
Car. DE CB
FB
G
G
Reggie White
Eric Davis
William Floyd
Bryan Stoltenberg
James Dexter
Cin. Nobody
Chi. Nobody
Cle. Nobody
Dal. QB
LB
OT
DT
QB
CB
WR
C
DT
DE
S
Troy Aikman
Joe Bowden
Erik Williams
Chad Hennings
R. Cunningham
Phillippi Sparks
James McKnight
Mark Stepnoski
Alonzo Spellman
Ryan McNeil
Darren Woodson
Det. DT
OT
Kelvin Pritchett
Ray Roberts
Den. DE
CB
OT
QB
L. Archambeau
Dale Carter
Tony Jones
Mike Tomczak
GB OT
RB
LB
C
Earl Dotson
Dorsey Levens
Brian Williams
Frank Winters
Ind. CB
LB
Tyrone Poole
Cornelius Bennett
Jac. WR
LB
S
WR
C
OT
DE
Reggie Barlow
Brant Boyer
Carnell Lake
Keenan McCardell
Quentin Neujahr
Leon Searcy
Joel Smeenge
KC FB
RB
DE
CB
QB
CB
DT
QB
LB
Kimble Anders
Donnell Bennett
Duane Clemons
Carlton Gray
Elvis Grbac
James Hasty
C. McGlockton
Warren Moon (ret.)
Marvcus Patton
Mia. WR
G
RB
Tony Martin
Heath Irwin
Thurman Thomas
Min. WR
DT
FS
DE
LB
G
RB
David Palmer
John Randle
Orlando Thomas
John Burrough
Gabe Northern
Brad Badger
Robert Smith (ret.)
NE G
QB
DT
Max Lane
John Friesz
Henry Thomas
NO WR
TE
CB
LB
Jake Reed
Andrew Glover
Alex Molden
Mark Fields
NYG Nobody
NYJ LB
OT
LB
Bryan Cox
Jumbo Elliott
Roman Phifer
Oak. CB
CB
CB
DE
Eric Allen
Darrien Gordon
Tory James
Lance Johnstone
Phi. DE Mike Mamula
Pit. C Dermontti Dawson
SDG CB
CB
S
QB
G
DE
Darryll Lewis
Deron Jenkins
Mike Dumas
Ryan Leaf
Kevin Gogan
Neil Smith
Stl. DT
LB
DT
C
Ray Agnew
Todd Collins
D'Marco Farr
Steve Everitt
SF G
RB
RT
LB
RB
LB
WR
OL
Ray Brown
Charlie Garner
Scott Gragg
Ken Norton
Travis Jervey
Winfred Tubbs
Jerry Rice
Chris Dalman (ret.)
Sea. WR
CB
DT
RB
Sean Dawkins
Willie Williams
Cortez Kennedy
Ricky Watters
Tam. OT
WR
Jason Odom
Karl Williams
Ten. WR
WR
Carl Pickens
Yancey Thigpen
Was. G
WR
G
G
G
Andy Heck
Irving Fryar
Jay Leeuwenburg
Keith Sims
Tre' Johnson

After four trips to the Pro Bowl as a Raider, McGlockton had none in three seasons with the Chiefs. To make matters worse, the Chiefs kept pouring money into his contract to stay competitive under the cap, replacing big chunks of his contract with signing bonuses. They now face a major dilemma.

Instead of severing the relationship and getting away with a $1.5 million cap hit, the Chiefs added $2.9 million of extra proration with two years of contract redos. While they save $5.6 million cash by cutting McGlockton, he will eat up $7.02 million of their cap after departing as opposed to what would have been $3 million.

With signing bonuses heading into the $10 million to $20 million range, free agent disasters will only get worse in the future, so teams have to review their strategies.

The lesson learned here for general mangers is to draft well and make sure you can re-sign your top prospects. If not, don't look to free agency to solve all your problems.

"The deal is now, teams are getting a lot smarter and are locking up their really good guys," retiring Packers general manager Ron Wolf said. "So the good ones, they don't get out there. To me, free agency is like a Band-Aid. If you've got a problem, you can fix it through free agency. But if you are one or two players away and you want to get there with these big money guys, to me, that's a gamble today."

The free agency class of 2001 should have a "Buyer Beware" poster as a marquee. The best players at most positions aren't dominating players. Study the defensive tackle, wide receiver, halfback and cornerback positions closely. Available are good players but not great players. Arguably, the top players at each of the four positions -- defensive tackle Chad Eaton, receiver Derrick Mason, halfback Charlie Garner and cornerback Ronde Barber -- are very good No. 2 starters at those positions. The No. 1 guys are the dominators, but to get the Eatons, Masons, Garners and Barbers, teams may have to pay dominating starter money to acquire them.

If you noticed that Ray Buchanan, Aeneas Williams and Jerome Bettis aren't at the top of their position pools, it's because they will most likely be re-signed or retained with a franchise tag. Like Wolf says, teams can keep their own players, if they want.

"Free agency is a law of unequal returns anymore," Wolf said. "There was a different level of player available at the onset of free agency. With the exception of Reggie White and Deion Sanders, most of the other top free agents haven't worked out.

"We keep running up the price on lesser caliber players. It makes no sense what we do, but if you are going to play in this game, you've got to do it."

Veteran cuts to the chase
The free agent list is pretty much starting to look like the list of college seniors eligible for the draft. The quality of any draft is determined by the number of quality underclassmen to turn pro. Starting with this year, the free agents list may be topped by the list of released players or those whose contracts are voided.

More than 100 players are on the bubble for being released or traded because of tight salary cap problems. McGlockton, Cortez Kennedy of the Seahawks, Ted Washington of the Bills and John Randle of the Vikings top anything at the defensive tackle position.

A decent linebacking crop would be augmented by the additions of Mark Fields of the Saints, Sam Rogers of the Bills and Roman Phifer of the Jets.

Where the question remains is the price and the length of the contract. Do you commit a $7 million to $11 million signing bonus to players who weren't retained by their teams? The other problem is that those contracts are stretched over six to seven years to spread out the cap consequences.

Head coaches aren't lasting anywhere close to the length of these contracts. A head coach has two or three years at best to win or he loses his job. During a six- or seven-year deal, a player may be exposed to two or three different head coaches, and if the head coach comes in with clout, he may turn on the long-term free agent and let him go if he isn't producing.

As the Ravens and Giants proved in going to the Super Bowl, building teams through the draft may take time, but it's still the best way to go. Each team used free agency to fill a few holes but not the primary spots.

The reason the Ravens wear the Super Bowl rings is because of the meticulous way they drafted top defensive players. The Giants were in the Super Bowl because stud draft choices such as Michael Strahan, Keith Hamilton, Jason Sehorn and others came together at the right time and matured.

Free agency can make good teams better teams, but it can't make them a great team. That won't stop the spending, though.

John Clayton is the senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.






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