Clayton 1st and 10

John Clayton

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Thursday, November 15
 
First ... And 10: AFC East at stake

By John Clayton
ESPN.com

Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First And 10" column takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the week followed by primers for 10 other games. Here's his look at Week 10.

First ... New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: For good reason, the Dolphins believe they are better than the Jets. Unfortunately for them, the scoreboard doesn't agree.

Take their past three meetings. Last October, the Dolphins jumped out to a 30-7 lead over the Jets and lost 40-37 in what was called the "Miracle in the Meadowlands." A month later, they are trailing 6-3 with midway through the fourth quarter when a former Dolphin, Bernie Parmalee -- now retired -- reels off two game-winning touchdown runs in what turned out to be a 20-3 loss.

Then, during the fifth week of this season, they blow a 17-0 halftime lead in a 21-17 loss in the Meadowlands. Where the Dolphins may be good at finishing games against other teams, they can't extinguish the Jets. If they don't do that Sunday in Pro Player, they may finally let the Jets take the AFC East away from them.

Marvin Jones
Aaron Glenn, top, celebrates another comeback win over Miami with Marvin Jones, center, and Damien Robinson in Week 5.
What should concern the Dolphins is that the Jets are starting to get accustomed to Herm Edwards' 4-3 defense. Defensive end John Abraham jumped to the front of the AFC sack leaders with nine. After being worst against the run during the first part of the season, the Jets have allowed 300 yards rushing over the past three games.

Edwards is doing more blitzing and allowing his cornerbacks to do more man coverage. This aggressiveness is making the Jets look as though they are making a dramatic turnaround. Even defensive tackles Steve Martin and Shane Burton are making plays that they weren't making early in the season.

It's hard for Dave Wannstedt to prevent the Dolphins from being paranoid even if they jump out to a two-touchdown lead. They've lost games to the Jets when Lamar Smith has had 155-yard games, and they've lost games to the Jets when they've bottled up the run. The Dolphins love getting a lead and then eating up clock time with the running game, so don't fault Wannstedt if he looks more nervous with the lead.

Sam Madison's shoulder separation propels first-round choice Jamar Fletcher into the starting lineup at cornerback, so expect Vinny Testaverde to test him often. Patrick Surtain is too good on the other side of the field to try, so Fletcher needs to play as well as he did in limiting Colts receivers last week to less than 12 yards a reception.

Last Sunday against the Colts, the Dolphins showed they don't panic in critical situations in the fourth quarter. In fact, the way Dolphins players were flying around in the final five minutes, they seemed to enjoy the action.

With the Colts in flux because of Edgerrin James' knee, Peyton Manning's cracked jaw and a vulnerable defense, the game between the Dolphins and Jets is for the AFC East.

And 10. St. Louis Rams at New England Patriots: The Patriots snuck up on everyone. If they beat the Rams, they will be 6-4 and will be the talk of the league. Tom Brady would be 6-2 as Drew Bledsoe's replacement and next week's debate is why in the world would Bill Belichick go back to Bledsoe as the starter. That is, if they can beat the Rams. The Rams are out to prove points. Last Sunday, they blew out the Panthers, 48-14, because Mike Martz doesn't want his offense to let up until it has a 35-point lead. This week's mission is to prove the Rams can win outdoors, something they only have to do one more time this season in Carolina. Their advantage is that halfback Marshall Faulk knows Belichick's defense from his days with the Colts. Faulk proved by his 183-yard rushing day against the Panthers that he isn't going to be bothered by his troublesome knee. In fact, it will be fun for Faulk to play on the grass in Foxboro, a rare treat. Rams quarterback Kurt Warner has to get used to potential winds for this Sunday Night ESPN special. The only wind he's experienced lately has been the air conditioning in domes.

9. Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Does it appear to you that the Browns are running out of gas? As competitive as coach Butch Davis has made them, injuries and fatigue are catching up. Their defense is staying on the field too long, so it's harder for them to make those final-minute stops. Close losses to Chicago and Pittsburgh have drained their emotions. And now, the Browns face a rare revenge game. The Ravens want to avenge their 24-14 loss in Cleveland that showed that the Browns' franchise is once again a factor. The Ravens survived the first part of their season by going 3-3 on the road. They have five home games. As long as they don't lose a home game, they should win the AFC Central. With Terry Allen out with a broken hand, the Ravens have to rely on talented but raw Jason Brookins, who's averaged four yards a carry. Conversely, Browns halfback James Jackson is averaging only 3.0 yards a carry and now is going against the league's most stubborn run defense. Doesn't that mean negative yards on the ground? The Ravens won the past three games by outscoring teams in the fourth quarter, 24-7.

8. San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are angry. They are also banged up. The Chargers have lost four of the past six games and suddenly find their season going from division contender to wild-card possibility. Losing Rodney Harrison for the next two to three weeks may be the one injury that takes a big chunk out of the Chargers' defense. They've always paid a price with defensive tackle Jamal Williams being knocked out for the season and Junior Seau playing but battling leg injuries in the middle. Raiders coach Jon Gruden and Broncos coach Mike Shanahan have called Harrison one of the best safeties of this era, so losing him will be tough. Rogers Beckett has to step up. For the Raiders, it's simply a matter of fighting off their injuries and tightening up the defense. They have to make it a point not to let LaDainian Tomlinson get to 100 yards after letting Shaun Alexander rush for 266 last Sunday night. Chargers-Raiders games are always physical. Usually, they are close and low-scoring.

7. Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints: Peyton Manning has a cracked jaw, but the crack isn't as much of a concern as the cracks in the Indy defense. It's hard to figure. Under Jim Mora, the Colts' defense plays hard. Their young linebackers are good, but losing Mike Peterson, their best defensive player, for a month will hurt. Communication problems in the secondary are creating wide-open passing lanes for quarterbacks to throw to receivers. Aaron Brooks has to take advantage of that. The Saints are on a two-game losing streak, so getting their offense right is a priority. There is no excuse for not getting two or three touchdown drives in this game. Still, this is Manning's return home and there will be lots of emotion. The reason Manning can play is that the crack in the jaw is rather small and it is in the front below the teeth. It's not high as in Kerry Collins a couple years ago in which he had to miss a month. There is no danger, for example, of Manning having his jaw dislocated. The injury isn't in that area. What you wonder about is how well he will be able to call plays and audibles in what will be a noisy Superdome. False starts by Colts offensive linemen could be high.

6. New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings are shaking up their secondary. Why not? Their season is going down the drain, so these are times for desperate moves. Dennis Green usually coaches his best when the team is about ready to be written off, but that has happened so few times. At 3-5, the Vikings are about to be an afterthought, so Green plans to start Dale Carter at cornerback, get Robert Griffith back at strong safety and hope that Tyrone Carter can do a better job than high-paid Orlando Thomas at free safety. At home, the Vikings are tough, and their defense seems to feed off the fans. The Giants, meanwhile, seem to be struggling to get their emotions up. Even last Sunday's victory over the Cardinals was a yawn. This could be a monster game, though, for Giants defensive end Michael Strahan, who is on a record-setting pace with 15 sacks. The Vikings are well-coached on the offensive line, but their starters at tackle are mostly journeymen.

Jim Miller
Will the Bears let Jim Miller throw downfield against the Bucs?
5. Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Critics complained that the Bears were too cautious in last week's loss to the Packers at Soldier Field. Jim Miller tried very few deep passes and they tried too much to dink and dunk against the Packers. If they do the same on the road against the Bucs, the Bears may get buried. This is the game that might ignite the fire back in the Bucs. They need a huge defensive effort, and if they shut down the Cinderella Bears, they would be within one game of second place and feeling as though they can make their usually late-season run. Expect a big game for Warren Sapp, who has only three sacks this season. Expect linebacker Derrick Brooks to be flying around the field. And maybe, for energy, coach Tony Dungy may open up their offense and try more deep balls. The Bears are tough to throw deep against because of a good scheme and solid talent. But a deep completion or two would excite the fans. The Bucs need to get some energy going.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers: Since their season-opening 21-3 loss to the Jaguars, the Steelers have turned themselves into one of the top teams in the NFL. Kordell Stewart is throwing at 60 percent efficiency and Jerome Bettis is one of the top three AFC players for MVP honors. But defensively, they have been phenomenal. Bill Cowher's blitz schemes and great linebacker play by Joey Porter, Kendrell Bell and others have the Steelers ranked first in six defensive categories, including fewest yards allowed per game and fewest points. Add revenge to the mix, and this should be a tough day for Tom Coughlin's team. Jaguars quarterback Mark Brunell will have to be especially sharp. Last year, Brunell pulled out a late-season win because Fred Taylor was unstoppable against the Steelers' defense. Once again, after missing six games, Taylor is still a question mark whether he can play on his pulled groin injury.

3. Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills: Mike Holmgren can't repeat what his Seahawks did two weeks ago by losing to a team that is beatable. The Redskins loss was an embarrassment, so quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has to be extra focused not to let the young, improving Bills defense get confidence early in the game. The key is letting hot running back Shaun Alexander control the early action. Alexander's 266 yards against the Raiders was an explosion ready to happen. He's that good. And Holmgren has adjusted his offensive thinking to get more run plays into the offense. The Bills won't have Rob Johnson at quarterback, which, as strange as it sounds, may help. Backup Alex Van Pelt became a little bit of a fan favorite because he runs the West Coast offense better than Johnson. Plus, offensive coordinator Mike Shepherd knows the Seahawks because he was Holmgren's quarterbacks coach last year. Even though the Seahawks are favored by a field goal, this is a dangerous game.

2. San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers: Poor George Seifert. He left some of the great fishing areas in this country, and now the Panthers team he coaches is a pain to turn around. Chris Weinke returns at quarterback, but injuries keep taking away talent. Last Sunday, he lost his best defensive lineman, Sean Gilbert, for a month with a knee injury. So with no pass rush and limited ability to stop running plays, the Panthers have to face his former team, the 49ers. Terrell Owens may not like this, but coach Steve Mariucci needs to be conservative early in the game and just let backs Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow work against a run defense that gave up 337 yards to the Rams last Sunday. There is no need to be fancy when a team is struggling as much as the 1-8 Panthers.

1. Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals: Jeff Fisher may have a tough time getting the Titans to bounce back after their demoralizing Monday night loss to the Ravens. But there is no choice. If they lose to the Bengals, the Titans may be headed for a fifth-place finish, which they don't want any part of in their last year in the AFC Central. Quarterback Steve McNair is iffy because of a swollen thumb and banged-up halfback Eddie George still looks as though he needs time to recover from his injuries. The Bengals, meanwhile, know that they have a chance to maybe get an eight- or nine-win season if they can win a home game like this. Corey Dillon needs a big game, which will be tough against the hurting yet proud Titans defense. Motivating the Titans is Fisher's supreme challenge, but it's always what he does best.

John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.










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