Clayton 1st and 10

John Clayton

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Wednesday, November 28
Updated: November 30, 6:32 PM ET
 
First ... And 10: Unexpected beasts meet

By John Clayton
ESPN.com

Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First And 10" column takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the week followed by primers for 10 other games. Here's his look at Week 12.

First ... New England Patriots at New York Jets: Who would have thought it?

The Jets and Patriots are facing each other in a huge AFC East game in December and Bill Parcells isn't part of the conversation. Even the controversy involving Bill Belichick isn't a big deal. Thanks to Herman Edwards' positive approach to life and football, the conversation is more on the field than off. It's all about good coaching and good football.

Each coach is using different versions of the word turnover. Edwards has the Jets believing in a simple approach to the game. He wants his defense to create turnovers and his offense not to make any. The result is a plus-22 turnover margin.

Curtis Martin
Curtis Martin, left, ran for 106 yards and a TD in the Jets' 10-3 win over the Pats in Week 2.
Though the passes are shorter, Vinny Testaverde is quietly enjoying a satisfactory season. No, it's not like some of his big-play days of the past. His 6.2-yard pass per attempt average is second-lowest in the AFC and his 79.9 quarterback rating isn't going to get Testaverde to the Pro Bowl.

But that isn't the point. The Jets are looking to go to the playoffs, and the fact that Testaverde has thrown only six interceptions is one of the reasons.

Another reason for the Jets' success is the lack of penalties. Edwards is coaching a smart football team that has committed only 38 penalties in its first 10 games. On top of that, they have only lost five fumbles.

Of course, the one difference is Curtis Martin, the understated superstar that the Patriots traded away. He's having an MVP-like season with 983 yards and 10 touchdowns. If Martin runs over the Patriots and squashes their playoff chances, that is the one lingering part of the old rivalry that won't go away from the Jets.

Being the class act that he is, though, Martin won't rub it in.

Belichick, who gave away the Jets' coaching job, has been doing it with mirrors. He made the controversial decision of staying with Tom Brady but that continues to pay off. Despite some recent signs of slowing down, Brady is 6-3 as a starter and Drew Bledsoe appears to be quietly sitting out his final days as a Patriot.

Like Testaverde, Brady works the short passing game to minimize mistakes. It's allowed him to rise to second in the AFC with a 93.5 passer rating. He gets the ball mostly to Troy Brown, who has 70 catches and five touchdowns. The Patriots have done their best on offense when Antowain Smith runs for 100 yards even if it takes a lot of carries. He has 721 yards rushing on 187 carries.

Like the Jets, the Patriots haven't turned over the ball. They have only 10 interceptions and six lost fumbles. Belichick's big thing is turning over the roster. He's taken away the Terry Glenns and Bledsoes and using players who fit his hustling style of play.

Who would have thought it?

And 10. St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons: Dan Reeves is making a playoff run but fans aren't buying it. What a shame. Sunday's game against the Rams, whom the Falcons trail by two games in the NFC West, is probably the biggest for the franchise since their Super Bowl days a couple of years ago. Yet there are more than 20,000 unsold seats. Reeves is begging fans to come. The Falcons actually have a chance because the Rams may have to use two inexperienced safeties due to injuries. Quarterback Chris Chandler loves using his run fakes to draw in safeties to open big plays. Strong safety Adam Archuleta is out with an ankle injury and Kim Herring is questionable with a hip pointer. Naturally, Chandler will have a hard time outdoing Kurt Warner for big plays, and that's where the Falcons have problems. They are thin at safety, and Mike Martz's schemes confuse safeties since Isaac Bruce and Torry "Big Game" Holt get single coverage. Martz is making a point this week of cutting down the turnovers. The Rams are on pace to commit 51 turnovers, close to an NFL record. Maybe the Rams don't want to admit it, but their turnaround on defense is getting shakier because of injuries. They have to protect the ball because they've lost significant play-makers such as Damoine Lewis, Leonard Little and Archuleta who can get the ball back on defense. The Rams have to play smarter until their defense gets healthier.

9. Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins: The Broncos brought out all their guns on Thanksgiving and they barely sneaked out of Dallas with a victory. This week, they won't have semi-retired offensive line coach Alex Gibbs, who won't fly out of Phoenix to help the struggling offensive line. Wide receivers Rod Smith and Keith Poole may not play because of injuries, so Brian Griese may be throwing to a group of receivers who haven't had an NFL start. If that isn't bad enough, Sam Madison returns to one of the best cornerback trios in the NFL. Mike Shanahan knows this game might be one of his toughest challenges of the year. Part of the problems with the Broncos' line is so many of its young starters are playing through nagging injuries. Terrell Davis's return might be the best ticket for the team. Of course, the Dolphins got a big lift with their come-from-behind victory over the Bills last Sunday. Jay Fiedler came out of a lengthy slump to win the game. He should enter this game with momentum and have more confidence coming from his teammates.

8. Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens: Brian Billick walked into the office of vice president Ozzie Newsome and had to close the door because the news wasn't good. Jason Brookins had a broken foot and would be out three to four weeks. Defensive tackle Sam Adams needed knee surgery and will miss a game. Couple that with Michael McCrary's season-ending injury and the defense and offense are getting thinner. Thank heaven for home games. The Ravens have four of their final five games at home, so all they need to do is keep squeaking out close victories. Quarterback Elvis Grbac came through with a huge fourth-quarter performance to beat the Jaguars last Sunday. That's taken some of the pressure off after weeks of mistake-prone games. Colts quarterback Peyton Manning has to bounce back from a four-interception performance and the Indy defense has to bounce back from a season of bad plays. Converted defensive end Peter Boulware has to put on pressure to keep Manning from settling into a rhythm. Coach Jim Mora took some subtle shot at Manning for the turnovers. That's not good. Manning is the franchise and his turnovers are coming because he's trying to cover for a defense that is surrendering almost 30 points a game.

7. San Diego Chargers at Seattle Seahawks: Last year, Doug Flutie finished his Bills career by embarrassing the Seahawks' defense at Husky Stadium. Despite a 308-yard performance against the Cardinals, Flutie returns in a desperate situation. The Chargers' season is slipping away and a loss to the Seahawks would seal a much improved but disappointing season. After all, the Chargers have lost four in a row. Because Flutie is having difficulty converting scoring opportunities into touchdowns, the Chargers signed veteran kicker Steve Christie, hoping he can be more consistent than their $5.8 million acquisition, Wade Richey. The Chargers big problem is they seem to be falling apart in close games. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have major problems at the cornerback position. Shawn Springs' four-game suspension came at the wrong time because the Seahawks have to win two of their next three just to have a prayer of making the playoffs. Willie Williams becomes their best coverage player, but he can be victimized by tall receivers. Ken Lucas is still a rookie who was singed horribly early in the season. The Seahawks need a big game from halfback Shaun Alexander. The Chargers need a big game from rookie LaDainian Tomlinson.

6. Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers: To calm a few fears, contraction doesn't mean that Randy Moss's $75 million contract will shrink if the Vikings don't make the playoffs. Moss gets paid top dollar if he plays or doesn't play. The biggest question is how well quarterback Daunte Culpepper can play. He's experiencing swelling around the left knee and had to get an MRI Wednesday. The Vikings have been winless on the road with Culpepper. Imagine how successful they can be in Heinz Field without Culpepper. His throwing and running ability at least gives them the ability to Ketch-up. Sorry for the pun, but you need to have a few chuckles when talking about the Vikings. It's been an ugly season. For the first time in almost a decade, they go into December with the playoffs being a dream more than a reality. Perhaps the most amazing story is how Kordell Stewart is starting to get people to think about Pro Bowls and playoffs. He's getting better each week. In many games, he's doubled his passing yardage from a year ago. The Steelers sense they can win the AFC Central. They are on a roll.

5. Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars: This is a dangerous game for the Packers. Jaguars fans have a chance to bring some Monday night craziness that could inspire a depressed group of Jaguars. Mark Brunell tends to play well before the bright camera lights. Wide receiver Jimmy Smith will be extra dangerous because his character was questioned when police revealed a positive test for cocaine. The real pressure in this game goes on the Jaguars' defense and coordinator Gary Moeller. Off and on, the scheme has been called too soft. Brett Favre feasts on soft defenses. Halfback Ahman Green could further embarrass the Jaguars by breaking off long runs. Overall, the Jaguars rank 23rd on defense and are 11th-worst against the pass. They are the second-worst in allowing first downs. Just what Favre is looking for.

4. Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns: The Browns are talking about the playoffs. Imagine that. They have the worst offensive statistics (245.5 yards a game) in football along with the worst rushing average (3 yards a carry) in the league. Still, Butch Davis has established toughness on this team that allows them to play through the pressure. In many ways, it's the same toughness that Jeff Fisher taught to the Titans that turned them into Super Bowl contenders. That's why this game should be fun. The two teams meet twice over the next five weeks and will help determine how their seasons finish. The Titans don't want to finish below the Browns so Fisher will try to push his wounded squad to get to .500 or better. Despite a back problem, Jevon Kearse should play. Of course, less than two weeks ago, Kearse joined Gerard Warren in Pittsburgh at Plaxico Burress' party and had a great time. Warren ended up with a one-game suspension for having an unregistered gun.

3. Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Can the Lions embarrass Charlie Batch any more? They've taken the starting job away from him once and that was a failure. Now, Mike McMahon comes off the bench on Thanksgiving and creates great excitement in having the team come back to almost beat the Packers. Batch is back as the starter, but you get the feeling he's loitering. You get the feeling the Lions really want McMahon, Ty Detmer or somebody whose name isn't Batch. The return of halfback James Stewart helps. So does the fact that the Lions have played seven consecutive games in which they've battled teams but lost at the end. The Bears have to watch to make sure they don't get too overconfident. Next week's game against the Packers is for the NFC Central title. Halfback Anthony Thomas may not be able to go because of his hamstring injury, but don't expect James Allen to be as productive as a week ago. Allen is a good back, but his quickness really looked good on artificial turf. He's the better runner on turf. Thomas is the better back on grass.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals: How weird are the Bengals? Neil Rackers has put up the NFL's worst place-kicking numbers over the past two years, but management refuses to replace him. Jon Kitna's slump led to last week's benching, but Scott Mitchell and Akili Smith looked so bad replacing him that they didn't make a quarterback change. Kitna stays as the starter, which is the right decision. But Smith jumps ahead of Mitchell for no reason other than the team realizes they paid him $10.8 million to sign a couple of years ago. The Bucs finally played like a playoff team in their exciting Monday night victory over the Rams. There has been a tendency this year for teams coming off of emotional Monday night games to lose. That usually happens when the Monday night team plays a good team. The Bengals may have qualified for that early in the season, but they are playing the second half like the Bengals of old. The plus for the Bucs is that they could win this game and the temperature may be in the 30s. Then they can lose that stigma of being winless in games played in 43-degree temperature or colder.

1. Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: The Saints have been consistent. They let opponents get double-digit leads and they start clawing their way back. That has to stop. The Saints may have "come-backed" themselves out of the playoffs and time is running out. They need to get the running game going and maintain a lead. The Panthers shouldn't pose much of a problem. Quarterback Chris Weinke is struggling. The running game is nonexistent. Injuries have taken away most of the play-makers from George Seifert's defense. The loss of Willie Roaf will force the Saints to run more toward Kyle Turley's side on the road where the Panthers will certainly stack their defense.

John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.









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