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| Saturday, December 1 Brady or Bledsoe? Belichick must make right call By John Clayton ESPN.com |
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The salary cap has been around long enough to establish a new order in the NFL. That's why it seems so strange to look back into the late 1980s and see a high-paid, Hall of Fame quarterback such as Steve Young waiting in the wings for Joe Montana to exhaust his great career. Young played four years before taking over for Montana in 1990. There were times Young hinted at being traded, but in the end, the 49ers traded Montana to Kansas City in 1992 and let Young establish his own 49ers legacy, albeit at the age of 31. What brings this to mind is the situation in New England involving Tom Brady and Drew Bledsoe.
Bill Belichick has played this situation so that one of the two must go after this season. From the looks of it, Brady has the best chance of staying. He's now a fan favorite in a city that always seems to be looking for the next quarterback. Bledsoe, though only 29 years old, thought he signed a $103 million contract last winter to finish his career in New England. One early-season chest injury turned him from a franchise institution into a tradeable asset. For Belichick, though, this situation is a blessing and a curse. The blessing is that the Patriots have two capable quarterbacks. The Cowboys, for example, have none. The curse is that Belichick's New England career will be defined by the success or failure of how he handles this one decision. The easiest solution is to let Bledsoe go to the Houston Texans in the expansion draft. There are a lot of people around the league who are convinced that is going to happen in February. Bledsoe has a great relationship with Texans offensive coordinator Chris Palmer. The Patriots would rid themselves of the remaining $91.5 million of Bledsoe's contract. They wouldn't have a $6.666 million charge on next year's cap for a departed Bledsoe because the Texans pick up all salary cap consequences if they acquire a player in the expansion draft. What can't happen is to think that Bledsoe and Brady can co-exist a second year after a season like this one. Trent Green and Kurt Warner worked together in 2000 because Green was coming off a major knee injury and wasn't 100 percent, so he accepted the reality that Warner had his job. It wouldn't have worked this year because Green needed a chance to start, so simple solution was trading him to the Chiefs. Doug Flutie and Rob Johnson couldn't coexist in Buffalo after the 1999 season. It created an ugly 2000 season and cost Wade Phillips his head coaching job. In the salary cap years, egos are too big for two high-salaried quarterbacks to work together even if they care about the team. Belichick's dilemma is how well he handles the Bledsoe situation. It isn't particularly easy. The trading period doesn't start until March, so he can't dangle Bledsoe for first-round draft choices without letting the expansion draft opportunity pass. For two years, Belichick has tried his best to operate under a tight cap. He couldn't sign free agents in 2000 and picked up 16 veterans this season at low cap numbers. The Patriots are currently about $7 million under next year's cap, but that number will evaporate quickly after offering tenders to restricted free agents and for the increased salaries of veteran minimums because of the new collective bargaining agreement. So basically, the Patriots won't have much cap room to sign a big-name free agent unless they can unload Bledsoe's $6.333 million cap number for next year.
But fans and owner Bob Kraft might be critical if Belichick doesn't try to get trade value for their $103 million quarterback. That's the tricky call. Under normal circumstances, a 29-year-old franchise quarterback would command a trade package that would include five top draft choices spread over two or three years. It's nice to think, but practically, what team would give away that much stock just to get one player? Won't happen. The league has so much parity now that trading one for five only weakens the franchise. Look at the teams in market for quarterbacks next season. The Lions, Cowboys, Dolphins, Redskins and Bears are the only teams that might be in the active market for quarterbacks. Except for the Bears, none of those teams are going to be willing to surrender a huge ransom to get a quarterback. Plus, are the Bears willing to give up two first-round choices and more if they can go to the playoffs with Jim Miller and possibly adding Chad Hutchinson, the former Stanford star? That would force the value of Bledsoe down to maybe a first- and a third at best. Not enough for a player of his quality. It would be a lot easier if a team or two needing quarterbacks had multiple first-rounders. That's not the case. The Eagles and Chargers are the only teams with multiple second-round choices, and they aren't going for quarterbacks. I'm not even sure that the Bears or Cowboys have to pay that kind of price for a top quarterback. That's why the expansion possibility isn't all that bad. Bledsoe has a base salary of $5 million and a remaining proration of $1.3333 million. The Patriots can probably sign Brady to a cap-friendly extension between $4.5 million and $6 million a year that would be only around $2.5 million to $3.5 million over the first three years of the contract. In my opinion, I'd go with Bledsoe. He's more of a deep threat than Brady and causes more worries within the defense. This is a lot different from what the Patriots did in trading away Curtis Martin but there is a similarity. Martin proved that star power means a lot and is producing MVP numbers for the Jets. Every one of his replacements with the Patriots -- Antowain Smith, Robert Edwards, Kevin Faulk and whomever -- haven't come close to filling the Patriots void for Bledsoe. But let's try another theory. Brady wouldn't command the trade value of Bledsoe but he may be a price some team might afford. The Bears would have to consider giving up a second-rounder at the very least. If a team would give up a first for Brady and the Patriots could keep Bledsoe, Belichick would be considered a genius in the way he handled a difficult situation. I personally don't think that will happen. Bledsoe should probably relocate to Houston, give them a chance to draft a respectable defense and try to construct a decent offensive line. My guess it that the Patriots will gamble and wait until the trading deadline starts to attempt to deal Bledsoe so that they can keep Brady. Win or lose, only the future of the Patriots is at stake. John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com. |
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