Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First and 10" column takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the week followed by primers for 10 other games. Here's his look at Week 15.

First ... Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots:What a difference a couple of months can make.

	Antowain Smith is tied for third in the AFC with 11 touchdowns this season.

When the Patriots visited the Dolphins on Oct. 7, the Dolphins were the reigning AFC East champs, coming off a blowout loss to St. Louis. They were angry but confident. After all, the Dolphins were playing a Patriots team coming off a 5-11 season and a 1-2 start.

Bill Belichick has helped the Patriots make the long climb back to respectability. If he can beat the Dolphins on Saturday, the Patriots can take the AFC East. They would hold the tie-breaker and even get a bye week to rest up. Their final game is against a one-win Carolina team, so they would expect to finish 11-5.

That's why Belichick said not winning isn't an option. The Dolphins won the first meeting 30-10 in Miami. Expect a war.

Don't dwell on the fact that the Dolphins gave up six sacks to the 49ers last week. The 49ers whipped a tired Dolphins team 21-0, and once the Dolphins fell behind, quarterback Jay Fiedler became an easy target. They had given up 12 sacks in 12 games, so coach Dave Wannstedt feels he can write off one game as a fluke.

Because the Dolphins have been banged up, they limited hitting in practices, and that can throw timing off on defense. Execution and timing is important if the Dolphins want to beat the Patriots this time.

"They don't beat themselves," Wannstedt said of the Patriots. "They're doing a lot of things that we do and did last year when we were winning. They minimize their turnovers. They run the ball fairly well, and they don't give up a whole lot of big plays on defense. It almost sounds too simple, but that's what they're doing."

In some ways, Antowain Smith of the Patriots and Lamar Smith of the Dolphins have switched roles. Lamar Smith was a surprise signing for the Dolphins last year who came on and gave them a running attack they had been lacking for years. Lamar Smith's game is solid inside running.

This year, Lamar has been struggling. Teams have loaded the line of scrimmage to stop him. He's averaging only 2.9 yards a carry on 264 carries. Those numbers were similar to what happened to Antowain in Buffalo for a couple of seasons.

Antowain left and signed with New England, where he has produced Lamar Smith-type numbers. He has rushed for 920 yards on 240 carries this season. Most importantly, he has 10 rushing touchdowns. Lamar Smith has had half as many this year.

The other key matchup is at quarterback. On the road, Fiedler has had a tendency to come up with turnovers. Tom Brady, who is 9-3 as a starter and doesn't make many turnovers, is running an efficient offense. Some think he's having a Pro Bowl season.

Most teams that play the Dolphins and Patriots acknowledge after the games how physical they were. It could be one of the more physical games of the season.

... And 10. New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Saints' biggest problem is the timing and location of the game. The timing is bad because teams coming off physical Monday night games have been victimized when they play a winning team the next Sunday. Six of the past seven Monday night winners have lost the next Sunday to a winning team, and the Saints are coming off a 13-point loss to a physical Rams team last Monday. Defensive tackle Norman Hand has a sore foot. Halfback Ricky Williams has a hairline fracture in a rib. Cornerbacks Michael Hawthorne, Fred Weary and Kevin Mathis are playing wounded. Where the Saints have an edge, though, is that they played well against the Rams and lost. The Bucs played poorly against the Bears last Sunday and got blown out. The Bucs' biggest problem is their wounded offensive scheme. Too bad Brad Johnson and Keyshawn Johnson can't get more teammates involved in their offense. Their scheme seems to be getting the least out of Warrick Dunn, Mike Alstott, Jacquez Green and others. The Saints, meanwhile, are getting the most out of receivers Joe Horn and Willie Jackson. The winner of this game can probably start making plans to be the NFC's sixth playoff team and go to Philadelphia for the first round of the playoffs.

9. Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers: Suddenly, the pass rush is starting to show up for the 49ers. Finally. The 49ers have had 13 sacks during the past four games. That has helped create 16 turnovers during that span, including 12 interceptions. Rookie defensive end Andre Carter is finally getting into a pass-rush groove. Defensive coordinator Jim Mora, though, may have to slow down that rush so that they don't overpursue and let Donovan McNabb run out of the pocket and make big plays. Niners coach Steve Mariucci's biggest concern is on offense. Jeff Garcia has torn cartilage between some ribs. That's a painful injury that has sidelined Elvis Grbac and at least one other quarterback this year. Already playing on a sore knee, Garcia hasn't run out of the pocket as much in the past month. He doesn't want to be a sitting target for Eagles coordinator Jim Johnson's wild blitzing scheme. On Wednesday, Garcia was downgraded to questionable. The Eagles do a great job of stuffing the run and pounding quarterbacks. More than ever this week, the 49ers will need great running performances from Garrison Hearst and backup Kevan Barlow. The Eagles would clinch the NFC East with a victory, but then a Giants loss will accomplish the same thing.

8. Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins : Now that the Bears are in the playoffs, the Dick Jauron controversy won't die. Jauron would be a lame duck coach if he doesn't get a contract extension, and he's the leading candidate for NFC Coach of the Year. What might make this a dangerous game is that the Bears might let down their intensity a bit. Sure, they know the value of staying ahead of the Packers and winning the NFC Central. But to secure their trip to the playoffs, the Bears played at high intensity on defense all season. That has to continue. The matchup is a good one for the Bears. The Redskins are at their best when they run the ball and let Stephen Davis control the clock. It's been proven this season that you can't run on the Bears, particularly up the middle. The Bears are third best against the run allowing only 82 yards a game. That puts the pressure on quarterback Tony Banks, who continues to be erratic. A good Tony Banks can win this game, so the Bears will have to keep the pressure on him.

7. N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis Colts: This is the game where the Jets could use cornerback Aaron Glenn, who will miss his third consecutive game because of a knee injury. This is a game in which they need a different offense. Think about it for a second: Vinny Testaverde has only one 200-yard game this season. Peyton Manning puts up 200-yard halves. And while the Colts' defense is capable of making a bad passing offense gain 300 yards on any given Sunday, offensive coordinator Paul Hackett has to call the long tosses to get that going. Jets coach Herman Edwards jokes he might have to have a 50-pass game to beat the Colts, but those passes better be downfield. Remember the Jets lost their opener in the Meadowlands to the Colts 45-24. For the Colts, it's a matter of pride. Because it's a Sunday night game, the fans will be excitable in the first half, so if Manning starts off hot, they won't sit on their hands all day. If the Jets lose, though, everyone will keep reminding them of how they fall in December. What they don't want to happen is have Seattle get into the mix for the final AFC playoff spot.

	Steve McNair has throw nine touchdown passes in the Titans' last four games.

6. Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders: A year ago if the Titans were coming to Oakland, we'd be talking about how Eddie George might pound the struggling Raiders' running defense. Injuries have stopped George all season. The new strategy is Steve McNair, who is being allowed to put the Air McNair nickname back to work. Over the past seven weeks, Rich Gannon of the Raiders and McNair have been the top rated quarterbacks. McNair has been given the license to throw downfield and is averaging 262 passing yards the past seven games. He has connected on 13 touchdown passes. The Raiders' pass rush will have to stay all over him. This has the potential to be a high-scoring game where a year ago, you'd expect it to be a 13-10 game. Gannon will try to poke holes in the banged up Titans pass defense, the league's second worst unit, surrendering almost 246 yards a game. Raiders coach Jon Gruden is trying to make sure his defense tightens up in the final weeks of the season. Last week's victory over the Chargers was just a start, but quarterback Doug Flutie wasn't going to exploit some of the Raiders weakness with that short style of passing.

5. Seattle Seahawks at N.Y. Giants: So much for the Ricky Watters controversy. Though Watters can be credited for inspiring the offense in an easy victory over the Cowboys, his return only slowed things down a touch. It caused unnecessary confusion to the running game when coach Mike Holmgren struggled juggling playing time between Watters and Shaun Alexander in a loss to the Broncos. Watters is out for the season with a broken ankle, so it's up to Alexander to regain lost momentum and pick up his Pro Bowl rushing pace. What the Seahawks have to hope is that the Giants give as lackluster an effort as they did last Saturday in a come-from-behind victory over Arizona. After surprising everybody by going to the Super Bowl last season, the Giants have underachieved this season. They appeared to be more talented on defense going into this season with the addition of defensive end Kenny Holmes and two talented rookie cornerbacks, Will Allen and Will Peterson. While their 11th rating in defensive stats is respectable, the defense hasn't made the key stops to win games. Maybe that's the offense's fault. After all, the Giants' offense has gone six games without scoring more than 17 points.

4. San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chargers, who have lost seven in a row, are trying to use the Chiefs game as a rallying point. In the Chiefs' 25-20 victory over the Chargers on Nov. 4, halfback Priest Holmes rushed for 181 yards. The Chargers haven't won a game since. Chargers coach Mike Riley remains steadfast in saying that Doug Flutie is going to finish out the season as the starting quarterback, but there is talk that Drew Brees could get a little playing time Sunday. Brees threw for 221 yards in the second half of that earlier game trying but failing to overcome a 19-point deficit. Holmes is slowed by a groin injury. Coach Dick Vermeil is trying to get a strong finish for the Chiefs and carry it over to next season. Last week's win over Denver demoralized the Broncos, so the Chiefs want to establish the same feeling against the Chargers.

3. Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: A week ago, Ray Lewis tried to motivate himself by taking some Jerome Bettis comments about Takeo Spikes and saying they were an insult to Lewis. Well, now Spikes is calling out tight end Shannon Sharpe as nothing more than a cheerleader. If the strategy didn't work for the Ravens in a loss to the Steelers, how can the Bengals think they can use verbal motivation tricks? After all, they are the Bengals and they are on a six-game losing streak. Even worse, they have three injured quarterbacks. Akili Smith went on injured reserve and Jon Kitna and Scott Mitchell are hurt. Ravens coach Brian Billick said that the team fully supports quarterback Elvis Grbac and will exercise an option clause in March that will keep him around for five years. Meanwhile, the Ravens' defense is just looking to have some fun again. The Bengals picked the wrong time to go verbal on the Ravens.

2. St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers: The Rams are on a mission. Their goal is to finish the season 14-2 and clinch home-field advantage. Kurt Warner stepped up in the last month and is now the NFC favorite to be MVP. In many ways, this game is like a vacation for the Rams. It's outdoors in what should be decent weather conditions, and the Panthers have become noncompetitive. The Rams won the first meeting 48-14. For the first time this season, coach Mike Martz may start making plans on bringing in some reserves after the first half and resting some of his key veterans. The interesting decision will be how much the Rams will want to use pass-rushing end Leonard Little. They let him play a big portion of the Monday night victory over the Saints. Little recorded his 10th sack, but he rushed back from a knee injury to be available for that game. When the Rams get Little and Grant Wistrom together on the field, they can crank up a pretty good pass-rush, something Panthers quarterback Chris Weinke doesn't need this late in the season.

1. Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers: Each team is starting to run out of defensive players. Of course, the Browns are in the worst shape of the two. They don't expect to have Courtney Brown back at defensive end. Last week they borrowed from the linebacking core and used strong side backer Jamir Miller at defensive end. Miller came up with three sacks against the Jaguars and may have to play the position again. Browns coach Butch Davis shook up the offensive line with three changes and moved rookie receiver Quincy Morgan into the starting lineup ahead of Dennis Northcutt, but that did little to ignite the offense. The Packers are running out of linebackers. They had Chris Gizzi filling in for Nate Wayne, but he hurt his back. Rookie Torrance Marshall bailed the Packers out by playing but they lost to the Titans. The hope for the Packers is to get Gilbert Brown and John Thierry back on the defensive line. The bad news for the Browns is that quarterback Brett Favre is upset about his performance against the Titans and will be on a mission. If the Browns can't get a pass rush, he could have a big day.

John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.