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| Wednesday, October 9 Updated: October 10, 3:32 PM ET First ... And 10: Running to victory By John Clayton ESPN.com |
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Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First And 10" column takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the week followed by primers for 10 other games. Here's his look at Week 6. First ... Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos: Talk about a test of wills. The Dolphins are hoping that they can ride on the back of Ricky Williams to the Super Bowl. Broncos coach Mike Shanahan hitched his running offense to three backs -- Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson and rookie Clinton Portis. Each teams relies on the run and each team thrives on stopping the run. Each team ranks in the top four in the NFL stopping the run, the Broncos second and the Dolphins fourth.
The numbers will make it tough for either team to approach the line of scrimmage with a lot of confidence. The Broncos are allowing 61 yards a game and 3.2 yards a carry. The Dolphins are allowing 82.2 yards a game and 3.4 yards a carry. What's interesting is that the Dolphins may have weakened their run-stopping ability by cutting defensive tackle Daryl Gardener during the offseason, but the line now goes with how well Tim Bowens plays. Bowens is the run-stopping force behind the Dolphins run-stopping success. Though he's playing through some chronically sore knees, Bowens has battled hard all season. Larry Chester has helped take some of the pressure off the linebackers by occupying guards and the center in blocking schemes. In the past two weeks, the Dolphins stuffed Priest Holmes on the ground and Antowain Smith. The improvement of the Broncos run defense comes from a two-fold transition. The Broncos signed former Ravens defensive tackle Lional Dalton, whose nickname is "Jelly," but he's acted more like cement in solidifying the interior of the Broncos defensive line. Dalton has teamed up with Chester McGlockton to protect the Broncos linebackers. The other move was taking Pro Bowl defensive tackle Trevor Pryce and moving him to defensive end. Pryce is solid against the run as an end, but he's still quick enough to provide a pass-rush. The other feature of this game is the speed of the linebackers of both teams. The Dolphins recently figured that they have linebackers with the average speed of 4.52 seconds in the 40. The huge front is important because the Dolphins linebackers weigh in the 220s and 230s. Still, linebackers Morlon Greenwood, Zach Thomas and Derrick Rodgers run all over the field to make stops, but they don't let many backs get downfield. The Broncos linebacking corps is definitely bigger, but they may be faster. Ian Gold has replaced Bill Romanowski on the outside and is one of the fastest linebackers in football. Middle linebacker Al Wilson and outside linebacker John Mobley are big, fast attacking linebackers. Running yards will be hard to find Sunday night. The linebackers are as fast as the running backs. And 10. Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots: The Packers head to New England with a wounded defense. They lost defensive end Joe Johnson for the season with a torn triceps and they don't have defensive end Vonnie Holliday because of a torn pec. If that isn't bad enough, the entire secondary is banged up, and coach Mike Sherman doesn't know how many defensive backs will be able to play Sunday. Sherman finished the Bears game on Monday night with only four healthy defensive backs. Wide receiver Terry Glenn had to be coached up along the sidelines for possible use in the secondary. The Packers also had three injured tight ends and their offensive line is getting banged up. Let's see. The Patriots are averaging 43 passes a game. The Packers may not have a great pass rush because of the injuries and their secondary is banged up. Antowain Smith better not be thinking about getting 20 carries this week because the Packers are a team that will be vulnerable to the Tom Brady pass-happy attack. The crowd will be into the return of the controversial Glenn, who quit on the team during its Super Bowl run. Glenn is coming off an eight-catch game, which was his best of the season. The Packers plan to start rookie Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila as the defensive ends with Billy Lyon and last year's first-round bust Jamal Reynolds as backups. 9. Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have to play close, low-scoring games to win. That's what they learned last week against the Broncos because they don't play well from behind. The Chiefs are averaging 34 points a game and are giving up 31, but they have the flair for the dramatic. They love scoring points in the fourth quarter. They have a league high 85 fourth-quarter points. So the strategy for the Chargers is simple -- get the lead and hold on for your dear life. More than any other game, the Chargers have to take the air out of the ball and not let the Chiefs onto the field as much. The Chiefs have to prove they are able to stop a steady diet of LaDainian Tomlinson runs. Opponents have been so busy exploiting the Chiefs pass defense that they have only called 23 runs a game. Tomlinson may have 23 carries in the first half alone. The Chiefs are allowing 4.6 yards a carry, and if Tomlinson gets 100 yards in the first half, it could be tough for the Chiefs to regain control of the game.
7. Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts: Only four weeks into the season, the Colts have improved on defense from the non-tackling bunch of a year ago.But they must get better against the run. This game will challenge them. Jamal Lewis is a power runner and the Ravens have a big offensive line. Lewis has 382 yards and a punishing 4.5 yards per carry average. He's coming off a 187-yard game against the Browns on Sunday. The Colts are surrendering 145 yards a game on the ground and 4.8 yards a carry, and that must be tightened up. The Ravens aren't a force on offense. They have six touchdowns in the first four games. This is a good stretch for the Colts to improve their run defense. Next week, they visit the Steelers and face a power back in Jerome Bettis. If the Colts defensive line rolls over in the next two weeks, teams will be running hard against them all year. They need to make a stand. Middle linebacker Ray Lewis is questionable with a partially separated shoulder. If he plays, the shoulder injury may prevent him from delivering all of his bone-jarring tackles.
6. Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys have been unpredictably predictable. Lose one. Win one. Lose one. Win one. Lose one. So the pattern should point to a Cowboys victory. In many ways, it better. The fans are growing impatient, but there are reasons for the struggles that go beyond Quincy Carter. Carter is doing reasonable well during the first three quarters, his problem is the fourth quarter. In fourth quarters, Carter is completing only 49 percent of his passes and is averaging only 5.31 yards an attempt, one of the lower numbers in the NFC. But his overall numbers are 58 percent and 6.22 yards an attempt. So the rest of the team needs to step up in the fourth quarter to pull off a victory. There are major problems on the offensive line. The ankle problem of right tackle Larry Allen may force him to sit. Center Andre Gurode is bothered by a knee injury. Left guard Kelvin Garmon is banged up and struggling. And the Panthers might be ripe to cause them problems. They have talented front seven, and this hungry team is looking for a win on the road. That could mean danger to a Cowboys team that should not lose to the Panthers at home.
5. San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: For the Seahawks, this is a game of redemption. They can put aside their 0-3 start and climb back into the NFC West by pulling off a Monday night victory. To do that, the Seahawks run defense must come together. That's a big if. But there is hope. Defensive tackle John Randle is expected to make his 2002 debut after recovering from a micro-fracture knee operation this offseason. The Seahawks hope to have Shawn Springs back at cornerback. Randle and Springs could provide some energy to a defense that ranks No. 28 overall and is allowing 189.5 yards a game on the ground. The 49ers love to have Fred Beasley do the lead blocking for Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow, who are each averaging over 5 yards a carry. Wide receiver J.J. Stokes is questionable because of a second-degree medial collateral knee sprain that was at first considered a three-week injury.
4. Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants:The Giants are climbing into the playoff race, and a win could propel them into a decent position. They are catching the Falcons at the right time. Michael Vick is doubtful because of a right shoulder injury. That means that Doug Johnson may start and he isn't the running threat in the mold of Vick. In fact, the Falcons will have to be more conventional with their offense under Johnson, a dropback quarterback who has some, but not great mobility. Maybe that's why Dan Reeves is leaning toward going with a power back, T.J. Duckett, instead of a quick back such as Warrick Dunn. The Giants may have to make a major adjustment in their offense without tight end Jeremy Shockey, who has a turf toe injury. Shockey has drawn enough defensive attention that Amani Toomer is having a monster season now that he is getting more single coverage. The Falcons 3-4 scheme is taking shape under coordinator Wade Phillips and will be tough against the Giants defense. This should be a low-scoring game unless Johnson and the Falcons turn the ball over.
3. Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams: The Raiders are averaging more than 40 points a game and the Rams offense, which had three consecutive 500-point seasons, has scored only 74 points in their five losses. This has the looks of a blowout, but the Raiders have injury concerns. Halfback Charlie Garner is questionable. Fullback Jon Ritchie may not play. Their three best offensive tackles are banged up. Cornerback Charles Woodson is out. Of course, don't whisper those problems to Rams coach Mike Martz. Martz doesn't have quarterback Kurt Warner, left tackle Orlando Pace and several top defensive players. This may be the last hurrah for the Rams this year. They are at home where they generate a lot of energy. Rams halfback Marshall Faulk will try his best to carry the offense to get a victory. But can they beat the Raiders with Jamie Martin at quarterback? That will be tough.
2. Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Browns are starting to slip, and you wonder if they can stop the problems. Tim Couch is coming off his worst week as a Brown. Fans cheered his head injury last Sunday, and he might not have started this game if backup Kelly Holcolmb hadn't suffered a fractured tibia Sunday night trying to rally the offense. The Bucs are gaining a lot of momentum on defense. They have taken four defensive plays back for touchdowns in the past four games. Their mission will be to target Couch to keep the streak going. The one concern for the Bucs is that the defense is almost doing a better job of scoring touchdowns than the offense. Five of the Bucs 14 touchdowns have been by returns, four on interceptions and one on a punt. The offense has scored only nine touchdowns in five games, settling for 11 field goal attempts. The Browns can dictate the type of game this will be. If they make turnovers, the Bucs will score a lot of points. If they protect the ball well, it will be low-scoring.
1. Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans: The Bills are giving up 36 points a game. So it's evident that teams can score on Buffalo. With a first-year offense and patchwork offense line, the question facing Texans coach Dom Capers is whether or not he can take advantage of that. The Texans have four offensive touchdowns all season. The Bills can give that up in one quarter. Capers' biggest mission is controlling Drew Bledsoe's passing offense. The Texans are strong at cornerback with Aaron Glenn and Marcus Coleman. Capers has had time during the bye week to add a few blitzes to pressure Bledsoe. The Texans can't make this game a shootout. But if they can force turnovers and mistakes, they could make life miserable for the Bills. John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com. |
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