Shortly after the first round of the 1999 draft concluded then-San Diego general manager Bobby Beathard opined that, of the five quarterbacks selected in the opening stanza, odds were that two of them would be busts.

No matter his track record in the last few drafts of his Chargers tenure, a retired Beathard was looking pretty much like a genius on Wednesday afternoon.

	Quick Exit
	From 1970-2000, there were 52 quarterbacks selected in the first round of the draft and Cade McNown becomes one of just seven not to last into a third season with the franchise that originally chose him. Here's a look at other six and how many years they were with the team that drafted them:
	Player	Team	Draft	Years
	Jim Druckenmiller	49ers	1997	2
	John Elway (a)	Colts	1983	0
	Jim Everett (b)	Oilers	1986	0
	Tommy Maddox	Den.	1992	2
	Todd Marinovich	Oak.	1991	2
	Steve Pisarkiewicz	Cardinals	1977	2
	(a) Traded to Denver (b) Traded to L.A. Rams

The last of those five quarterbacks chosen among the top dozen selections in 1999, Cade McNown, has now officially earned the label of first-round flop. Basically given away by the Chicago Bears in a trade with the Miami Dolphins for what likely will be a late-round choice, McNown combined poor statistics and a bad attitude to earn a ticket out of town.

So who will be the second of the "Fab Five" of 1999 to stumble and, in essence, fulfill Beathard's prophesy? Certainly the favorite at this point is the Cincinnati Bengals' Akili Smith, whose current bout of tendinitis in his right shoulder is just the latest setback for a player who parlayed one good season at the University of Oregon into first-round dollars.

Smith is listed third on the Bengals depth chart, behind journeymen Jon Kitna and Scott Mitchell, and is all but eliminated from the competition for the starting job. Having paid Smith about $11.25 million so far, the historically penurious Bengals aren't ready yet to totally write him off.

"Not by a long shot," said Bengals owner Mike Brown last month. "We still believe that Akili will be a player."

The Bengals are running out of patience, though, and some feel the franchise will expose Smith in the 2002 veteran allocation draft to help stock the new Houston Texans. After all, the Texans' offensive coordinator is former Cleveland head coach Chris Palmer, who thought highly of Smith in the '99 draft, when the Browns owned the first overall choice.

The three other first-round quarterbacks from the '99 draft -- Tim Couch of Cleveland, Donovan McNabb of Philadelphia and Minnesota's Daunte Culpepper -- are all firmly entrenched as the starters for their respective teams. McNabb and Culpepper both went to the Pro Bowl last year in only their second seasons. The development of Couch has been stymied a bit by a dearth of playmakers in the Browns offensive lineup.

Len Pasquarelli is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.