The calliope is close to being silenced, the wooden horses nearly halted on their incessant gallop around a 360-degree trail, the "Closed" sign about to be affixed to the brightly painted façade.

	Jon Gruden will probably be looking at a new home after the 2002 season.

As soon as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hire a new coach -- a move that took a step backward on Friday when talks with Ravens' defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis broke down -- the NFL's coaching carousel will finally be shut down for another year.

It has been, in retrospect, a far busier ridership season on the carousel than had been anticipated when the 2001 campaign commenced. Dating back to 1980, the league has averaged about six coaching changes per year, and most observers felt the 2001 casualty count would be about half that much.

Then again, no one could have divined that Marty Schottenheimer would be ousted after only one year in Washington. Or that the Carolina Panthers would win just a single contest and precipitate George Seifert's departure with two years remaining on his contract. There were no indications in Minnesota that Dennis Green would be bounced, nary a hint of the Indianapolis Colts' collapse in which Jim Mora was removed.

If there is one certainty in being an NFL head coach, though, it is the uncertainty that has become the negative mainstay of the profession. In hindsight, few seasons pass without a surprise or two, and in that respect this year was no different. So the final inventory is that six franchises, or about 20 percent of the teams, will have new head coaches for 2002.

"That seems to be about the norm anymore," said Green, who will spend the 2002 season hosting a fishing show before likely resurfacing in the league in 2003. "It always seems anymore to be in that area. You think, given the number of recent changes, there will be a season when it slows up a little. But that hasn't been the case."

And it's not likely to change, either, after the 2002 season. In fact, there is a chance the exodus of head coaches after the '02 season will be even larger than the most recent purge. Already it seems certain Jon Gruden and the Oakland Raiders will part after 2002, when the high-profile coach can be a free agent, and perhaps command the most lucrative contract in league history.

Gruden won't be the only coach changing addresses, though, although he is perhaps the only one assured of landing another job.

The upcoming free agency period, the draft, retirements and trades and any number of elements can alter a team and a head coach's job security. Training camps don't open again until July and by then, the dynamics of teams can have been dramatically altered. Certainly a coach some feel is on the hot seat right now, looking ahead to '02, could wind up in a recliner instead if his team has a productive offseason.

But given the current status of teams, here's a look into a murky crystal ball at the coaches whose jobs could be in jeopardy after the 2002 season. The coaches are listed in alphabetical order:

Dave Campo, Dallas
Despite winning just five games in 2001, you could make a convincing argument the Cowboys actually overachieved, and there were very few games in which they were not competitive. But 10 victories in two seasons won't be enough to sustain Jerry Jones' loyalty to Campo forever, and the Cowboys owner will be looking for more positive results in 2002, or probably be looking for a new coach after the season. There is finally some salary cap room and the addition of Bruce Coslet as offensive coordinator should be a plus. The bottom line, though, is that Campo probably has to get close to the .500 mark in 2002 to stick around.

Jon Gruden, Oakland
Pay no attention to those who suggest that, now that he is locked into coaching the Raiders for the final year of his original contract, Gruden will tank the '02 season. Anyone who feels that doesn't understand Gruden's competitiveness, his pride, and his fondness for players like quarterback Rich Gannon and wide receiver Tim Brown. But even if he succeeds in taking the team to a Super Bowl victory, Gruden stands to perhaps become the highest-paid head coach in league history by essentially opting for free agency. Raiders owner Al Davis may take one more shot at an extension, but his history is that he doesn't cede his coaches the degree of control Gruden desires, and isn't willing to break the bank to keep him on board. Gruden will be on every team's "short list" early next January, and will have to beat the suitors away from his front door.

Jim Haslett, New Orleans
A disappointing 7-9 season in 2001, in a year when the Saints were supposed to challenge for a second consecutive NFC West title, has left the franchise in disarray. And it's now evolved into an offseason of ugliness, innuendo, alleged breaches of discipline and tawdry rumors. Owner Tom Benson has offered Haslett, who is entering the final season of his original three-year contract, a four-year extension worth about $10 million and with a salary of $2 million in the first year. But it's uncertain if Benson is comfortable with the way the program is going right now. Why else would Benson grant permission to general manager Randy Mueller to interview with Atlanta for the same job? Things are a big uneasy in The Big Easy, and Haslett might not want to stay beyond 2002, especially if the Buffalo head coach job becomes vacant. He is close friends with Bills general manager Tom Donahoe.

Dick LeBeau, Cincinnati
It's believed LeBeau received just a two-year contract when owner Mike Brown decided to retain him after he replaced Coslet in 2001. If that is accurate, LeBeau will be entering the final year of that deal in 2002. LeBeau has done an excellent job restoring respect in the coaching staff and constructing a top 10 defensive unit. But the Cincinnati offense remains comatose, particularly the passing game, and the franchise hasn't enjoyed a winning year since 1990. At age 64, LeBeau remains vital and his defensive ideas fresh, but he probably needs to improve over this season's six victories to extend his tenure. The organization is fond of Mark Duffner, the defensive coordinator, and he could be a potential replacement.

Marty Mornhinweg, Detroit
In his first season, the former San Francisco offensive coordinator did not inherit the kind of personnel he required to optimally operate his attack. But there will be no excuses if the Lions don't roar a little louder next season. Some pundits strongly suggested that Mornhinweg was in over his head this year. It's hard to say if that's an accurate assessment. But if he was barely treading water in 2001, Mornhinweg needs to get things going a lot more swimmingly in 2002. The Lions are preparing to move into a new stadium and, after a while the novelty of a fresh facility wears off, and you've got to win games.

Gregg Williams, Buffalo
He will be entering the second year of a three-year contract and had some rough moments with veteran players in his debut season as an NFL head coach. Many of the veterans, who had things far softer under predecessors Wade Phillips and Marv Levy, could not get in line with Williams' more disciplined approach. The good news is, most of those players are gone, and the youngsters on the roster know there is no dogging it with Williams. Buffalo has to upgrade its offensive personnel, offensive design, and stabilize the quarterback situation. And it might help if Williams had a more veteran staff. He hired a lot of college coaches in 2001 and, while they possessed an admirable work ethic, the lack of familiarity with the NFL was a minus for many of the staffers.

Len Pasquarelli is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.