Sean Salisbury

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Thursday, October 31
 
Game Plans: Bills-Patriots

By Sean Salisbury
Special to ESPN.com

Although we're only at the mid-point, this has been a tale of two seasons for the New England Patriots.

In the first three weeks, they seemed invincible. But after four consecutive losses, the Pats are starting to wonder if they can stop anybody. When a team develops chinks in their armor, the finger-pointing begins and players start assigning blame -- such is the case in New England. Once in-house fighting begins, things start to crumble and the ship will ultimately sink.

Whenever you air your dirty laundry, you leave yourself exposed and vulnerable. So, there are a lot of question marks surrounding the Patriots, particularly in terms of leadership. I'm not sure the Patriots feel that they can beat anyone right now. It will be interesting to see which team shows up in Buffalo on Sunday.

Buffalo, on the other hand, is one of the most confident teams in the league. At 5-3, their record may not be the best, but the Bills know they're on the doorstep and they're ready to walk on through. With the acquisition of Drew Bledsoe, last seasons struggles are a thing of the past.

The Bills have great offensive weapons who are stepping up and making plays. They've got confidence in their coaches on both sides of the ball. It's going to be loud, cold and -- with the whole Bledsoe-Brady sidebar -- downright mean and nasty at Rich Stadium. The Bills have endured quite a few close games that have gone into overtime. Even under pressure, they're confidence doesn't waiver, they know they can win.

Five Keys for the Patriots
1. Stop the run: The Patriots have been gassed on the run for the past five weeks. And this week won't be any easier. Travis Henry has been playing well and will give that struggling defense some problems. Bledsoe can beat you when he's one-dimensional, so you can't give him both the pass and the run. The Pats need to stop the run, not only to win the game, but to regain some confidence.

2. Limit the big play: The Bills receivers might be the best combination of hands in the league. Whether it's Peerless Price, Eric Moulds or Larry Centers doing the dirty work, it seems like each week they've been able to make big plays. The Patriots have got to limit the 20 plus-yard passing and rushing plays.

3. Establish the run (or at least the threat of it): If the Pats can threaten with the run, then maybe they can mix in some play-action to keep the Bills honest. The Bills defense is not dominant by any stretch, but if the Patriots aren't running the ball, it will force Brady to throw -- on the road, in the cold. Cold hands lead to tipped balls, interceptions and fumbles. The Pats will need the running threat to cause some separation for their receivers.

4. Don't play fast break: This isn't a basketball game on a 90-foot court. And you can't play a rebound-and-run football game against the Bills. The Pats need to slow the game down and maintain some control. The best defense is keeping Bledsoe off the field. If you try to play fast-break with the Bills, they'll beat you in a shootout -- leave that alone.

5. Hit Bledsoe: Don't just sack him, pressure him and hit him in the mouth. Bledsoe has made a huge impact on the Bills, you can't just let him sit back and run the show. He's been exuding confidence -- playing free, loose and relaxed. He's been throwing the ball with rhythm and timing. The Pats have got to put Bledsoe on the ground and force him to throw the ball earlier than planned. If they can do that, they've got a chance at turnovers.

Five Keys for the Bills
1. Pass to set up the run: Most teams run to set up the pass, but since teams have been running like crazy against them, the Patriots are probably expecting the Bills to run. To counter that, the Bills need to pass the ball first to get the Patriots defense soft and off-balance. Then, start gassing them on the run. If the Bills can come out throwing to set up the run and control the ball, they'll dominate the game.

2. Make the Patriots one dimensional: The Pats haven't been able to run the ball with any consistently. Attack the run, force them to throw the ball every time and go after Brady. Generally, when you force a quarterback to throw, good things happen for the defense.

3. Field position: The Bills have been playing well at home, but to win this one, they're going to need to win the battle of field position. Having lost four in a row, the Patriots' confidence is wavering. If you give them the short field and allow them to score a couple of quick touchdowns, they'll start to believing in themselves and probably score a couple more. Make them go the long field and earn every point.

4. Start fast: We've already established that the Bills have confidence and the Patriots don't. So, if I'm the Bills, I want to start fast and try and burry the Patriots early. Keep their confidence level so low that they're completely overwhelmed and want to quit. With added fuel from the Bledsoe-Brady story, fans will be going crazy. If the Bills can jump out to an early lead and force the Patriots to throw on every down... guess what? Bills win.

5. Don't play safe: In crucial matchups like this one, you've got to stick with what got you there. Bledsoe is MVP-caliber, Moulds and Price are having great seasons, and the Bills are winning because they don't play conservative -- they attack. There's a big difference between playing safe and being stupid. Playing safe doesn't mean you throw on every down, or go for it on every fourth down. It means staying aggressive and attacking. If you're up two touchdowns, attack and make it three.

Sean Salisbury covers the NFL for ESPN.





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