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2023 projected NFL draft order: Texans, Lions top first round

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Who should the Texans take with the top pick? (1:27)

Matt Miller and Jordan Reid analyze some options for the Texans if they have the top pick in the 2023 NFL draft. (1:27)

The Houston Texans have the best chance to land the top pick in the 2023 NFL draft, according to the updated projections from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). The 1-10-1 Texans have an 89.7% chance to get the top selection after losing their seventh straight game. They're followed in our draft order projections by the Detroit Lions, who have a 4% chance to land the No. 1 overall pick. The Lions received that additional first-round pick in a 2021 trade with the Los Angeles Rams.

There already have been six trades involving first-round picks for April's draft, with the Texans, Lions, Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles in line to have two selections in Round 1. The Dolphins were stripped of their own pick because of violations of league policies relating to the integrity of the game, which means there are only 31 picks in the first round for 2023.

Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and the playoffs. NFC/AFC playoff seeding is not taken into account right now; this is just average draft position in the simulations.

Check out the full 1-31 projection for the 2023 NFL draft (updated Dec. 6):

1. Houston Texans (1-10-1)

Average draft position: 1.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 89.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Greater than 99.9%


2. Detroit Lions (via 3-9 LAR)

Average draft position: 3.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 86.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.1%


3. Chicago Bears (3-10)

Average draft position: 3.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 85.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.1%


4. Seattle Seahawks (via 3-9 DEN)

Average draft position: 3.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 81.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99%


5. Carolina Panthers (4-8)

Average draft position: 6.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 52.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 91.3%


6. Philadelphia Eagles (via 4-9 NO)

Average draft position: 7.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 28.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 87.7%


7. Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1)

Average draft position: 8.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 17.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 79%


8. Atlanta Falcons (5-8)

Average draft position: 8.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 17.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 77.6%


9. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8)

Average draft position: 9.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 12.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 69.9%


10. Arizona Cardinals (4-8)

Average draft position: 10.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 8.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 53.8%


11. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)

Average draft position: 12.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 32.3%


12. Houston Texans (via 5-7 CLE)

Average draft position: 12.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 27.7%


13. Detroit Lions (5-7)

Average draft position: 13.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 21%


14. Green Bay Packers (5-8)

Average draft position: 13.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 16.3%


15. Las Vegas Raiders (5-7)

Average draft position: 13.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 24.3%


16. New England Patriots (6-6)

Average draft position: 14.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 12.5%


17. New York Jets (7-5)

Average draft position: 17.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.9%


18. Los Angeles Chargers (6-6)

Average draft position: 19.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.6%


19. New York Giants (7-4-1)

Average draft position: 19.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


20. Washington Commanders (7-5-1)

Average draft position: 19.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)

Average draft position: 21.5


22. Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

Average draft position: 21.5


23. Tennessee Titans (7-5)

Average draft position: 22.1


24. Denver Broncos (via MIA/8-4 SF)

Average draft position: 22.6


25. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)

Average draft position: 24.5


26. Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)

Average draft position: 24.8


27. Minnesota Vikings (10-2)

Average draft position: 26.4


28. Buffalo Bills (9-3)

Average draft position: 27.9


29. Philadelphia Eagles (11-1)

Average draft position: 28.1


30. Dallas Cowboys (9-3)

Average draft position: 28.2


31. Kansas City Chiefs (9-3)

Average draft position: 28.3