 | | Salisbury on the Jaguars |  |
A lot of experts have downgraded Jacksonville this season in favor of teams like Indianapolis and Tennessee. Before Week 1, the Jaguars experienced some serious injuries to offensive tackle Leon Searcy and defensive back Carnell Lake. Speedy tailback Fred Taylor was hurt and couldn't start the season.
The media and fans have backed off the Jaguars, but the Jags have never backed off. They remain as intense as their head coach, and Tom Coughlin certainly isn't messing around. Within days after running back Chris Howard lost a fumble against Baltimore, he got cut.
The Jaguars might not look like a Super Bowl team, but they certainly have a Super Bowl-caliber combination of Mark Brunell and Jimmy Smith. The Jaguars are a fragile team. They could either be explosive and blow teams out or lose two games in a row.
Their overall skill is as good as any team's in the league, with players like Aaron Beasley, Kevin Hardy and Tony Brackens on defense. But I don't think the Jags feel comfortable because they don't have all of their people in the lineup.
Although they won't admit it, the Jaguars have been looking over their shoulders and wondering when Taylor would return to the lineup. He finally makes his debut Monday night against Indianapolis. Despite the lack of expectations, the Jaguars fully expect to be playing in late January, injuries or not. We don't know how good they will be, and neither do they.
Five keys for the Jaguars:
1. Run, run, run. Brunell is playing as well as any quarterback in the league. But Jacksonville needs to get some sort of running game. Even though the Jags are
not playing against the best defense in the league, they need to present some kind of running threat. Brunell can't be asked to continually carry the team. They need to get the ball to Taylor on runs and screen passes, so they can at least control the ball and kill some clock. The Jags can no longer be a one-dimensional offense.
2. Contain James. Edgerrin James can change the course of the game, so the Jaguars must contain him in pass coverage and stuff him on the run. But the Jags need to force other players in the Colts' offense to make plays.
3. Score red-zone TDs. In a game with two high-powered offenses, field goals won't be enough against the Colts. When the Jaguars get inside the red zone, they
have to score and come away with touchdowns. Jacksonville has only converted three of 12 red-zone opportunities into touchdowns this season, a mark that is
near the bottom of the league. The Colts had two weeks to prepare for the game, so the Jaguars must make the most of their scoring chances.
4. Get Brunell in a rhythm. He's a good scrambling quarterback, but he is at his best when he can plant his left foot in the ground and throw the ball.
When he's throwing out of a three-step drop on rhythm and throwing the skinny post, he is as good as any quarterback in the league. Before the
Jaguars played the Ravens, Baltimore coach Brian Billick told me he thought Brunell was the best quarterback in the league. He has done nothing to
discredit that. It's all about rhythm for Brunell, which means allowing him to time to set his feet.
5. Ball-control. Playing on turf against a team that can score at will, the Jags will need to hold the ball. Although they can get into a shooting match
with the Colts, they are on the road and the crowd will be loud. They are an explosive team, but when the running game isn't there, they resort to
controlling the clock with a short passing game. They are more of a ball-control offense that manufactures big plays because they set
it up well. |
 | | Jaworski on the Colts |  |
The Colts are the most explosive offensive team in the league outside of St. Louis. Peyton Manning is the linchpin, arguably the best quarterback in the NFL. Some could argue in favor of Kurt Warner or Mark Brunell, but Manning is near or at the top.
The Colts offense clearly wants to establish the run first and then run the play-action pass. Offensive coordinator Tom Moore is a big play-action advocate. He loves to pound, pound, pound the football to get the other team's safeties moving up to the line of scrimmage. Then he'll call on Manning to go over the top, usually on deep crossing patterns to Marvin Harrison.
The Colts have a plethora of good receivers with Harrison, Terrence
Wilkins, Jerome Pathon and E.G. Green. They can attack with multiple
formations and looks with their spread offense. But it all starts with the play-action passing game.
The defense is often considered the Colts' weakness, but the defense didn't lose the game against Oakland two weeks ago. The Colts shortened the field
for the Raiders with turnovers.
The Colts defense is much improved. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio loves to design schemes. Their front seven isn't the most talented group, but Fangio puts them in a position to be successful. His scheme is closely aligned with Dom Capers' zone-blitz defense in Jacksonville because Fangio worked with Capers in both Pittsburgh and Carolina.
Five keys for the Colts:
1. Attack early. People say you have to establish the run to get the play-action pass. I don't buy into that mentality because teams often call a big
play-action pass on their first or second play of the game after establishing nothing. The Colts are an efficient, well-respected running team already, so they don't have to establish the run. They can come out quickly and establish the play-action passing, and that's what they will do in this game. The Colts defense must be aware that the Jags are very anxious to go deep, particularly to Jimmy Smith. So, the Colts offense must try to gain the early advantage.
2. Get penetration. The Colts do a lot of slants, twists and stunts to get penetration and blow the running game up in the backfield. That will be the
key to the game, their ability to get penetration. Not only to stop the running game with Fred Taylor back, but also to get people in Brunell's face and cause confusion for the Jags' blocking schemes.
3. Hollier must be hot. One Colts defender who must step up is Dwight Hollier. The Colts have struggled at linebacker. They drafted Rob Morris, who hasn't been able to win his way onto the field as a starter. But to me
the middle linebacker in a 4-3 defense has to be a stud, and Hollier hasn't played that way yet.
4. Double-cover Smith. Jacksonville will try to avoid this. The Jags will move Smith around and use formation variation. The Colts need to be aware of
where Smith is and make their adjustments on the move to get two people on him. Keenan McCardell will then become the receiver Brunell will be looking to. Fangio will take his chances against McCardell rather than Smith, the league's leading receiver.
5. Bottle up Brady. With the problems that Hollier has had in his coverage, outside linebacker Mike Peterson might have to pick up tight end Kyle Brady in coverage. If the Colts are going to double-cover a receiver, that means a
linebacker will have to play Brady. Cornelius Bennett likes to play the open side of the formation, so Peterson needs a big game against Brady, who is tied for first among all NFL tight ends with 11 catches.
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