All 32 NFL teams have high expectations during training camp, but a lot can impact a Super Bowl race over 17 regular-season games. There are always surprises -- and variables we're not even thinking about during the preseason -- and 2023 will be no different.
To look at the bigger picture and just how good -- or bad -- every team could be this season, we turned to our ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). FPI projected win totals for every team based on 20,000 simulations of the entire season performed by our ESPN Stats & Information team, but to find a high and low, we picked out the middle 90% of those simulations. That gave us a ceiling and a floor in terms of expected record for each team in 2023, with extremely unlikely outliers eliminated. In other words, we identified the realistic best-case and worst-case scenarios for every team.
What can we expect for each team this season? If everything goes right, what might each team's record be? And if the worst scenario plays out, what would their records look like? We pulled the FPI ceilings and floors for every team, then asked our NFL Nation reporters to explain the biggest factor that will determine where each team falls within that win-total spectrum. Our reporters weren't allowed, however, to go with the easy answer and write about the success or failure of the quarterback they cover.
Let's go division-by-division, picking X factors for all 32 teams:
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest X factor: Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey's success in Year 2
The health and availability of Von Miller is also a factor in the Bills' ability to get over the postseason hump and win the AFC, if not the Super Bowl. But after the offense was inconsistent last year for a variety of reasons, especially in the second half of the season, Dorsey being on the same page with quarterback Josh Allen and taking some of the pressure off the quarterback's shoulders will be important. For the first time since drafting Allen, the Bills invested a first-round pick in an offensive player, tight end Dalton Kincaid, and how Dorsey integrates him in the offense is worth watching. -- Alaina Getzenberg