NFL teams with average quarterback production have reached Super Bowls and occasionally won them when their defenses and/or running games were strong enough to compensate. The Houston Texans' potential to fit that profile took a huge hit with superstar defensive lineman J.J. Watt likely headed for injured reserve.
Brock Osweiler's four-year, $72 million contract hasn't fooled any NFL evaluators into thinking he has the ability to carry the Texans if their defense falls off considerably. The analysis 42 league insiders provided for our 2016 QB Tiers project over the summer was consistent, explaining why Osweiler checked in at No. 27 among projected starters, deep into the third tier.