There are only three undefeated teams left in the NFL. Denver, Minnesota and Philadelphia have all looked great so far this season. However, based on Football Outsiders' methodology, none of those three teams is the current favorite to win Super Bowl LI.
This early in the season, our playoff odds still combine performance this season with our preseason forecast that was based on personnel changes and general year-to-year trends. And because they are playing very well, have a 3-1 record, and were our top forecasted team coming into 2016, we currently have the Seattle Seahawks as a significant favorite to win Super Bowl LI. The Seahawks make it back to the Super Bowl in 33.2 percent of our simulations this week and win it all 20.7 percent of the time. The Pittsburgh Steelers are second at 11.7 percent after their big win over Kansas City. Undefeated Minnesota and Denver are third and fourth.
But while they might not be our Super Bowl favorites, Minnesota and Denver have very strong odds to make it to the postseason because of their 4-0 records. Each week from now until the end of the regular season, we'll be taking a look at the playoff odds for all 32 teams in the NFL.
For a full explanation on how we calculate each team's playoff odds, see the bottom of the article.
AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
FAVORITES
1. Denver Broncos (4-0)
Odds of making playoffs: 80.4 percent
The Broncos had by far their best defensive game of the season against Tampa Bay in Week 4, climbing to fifth in defensive DVOA. They're also still in the top 10 on offense, one of the major surprises of the early season. Right now the biggest hurdle between the Broncos and another AFC West title is that the AFC West is the best division in the game. All three of Denver's division rivals also have an above-average DVOA through four weeks.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 79.8 percent
Based on average DVOA rating so far, the Steelers have played the hardest schedule in the NFL, but they play the easiest schedule over their final 12 games. While Pittsburgh has yet to play a team with a below-average DVOA through four games, six of its next eight opponents are currently below average (although New England won't be by the time they play the Steelers).
3. New England Patriots (3-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 71.8 percent
The Patriots don't really need to worry about their offense with Tom Brady now returning, but the defense is a different story. The Patriots rank 26th in defensive DVOA through four weeks, and what's worse is that they've done it against the second-easiest set of opposing offenses so far. Only Seattle has faced an average opponent that was worse on offense. New England's opponents so far rank 32nd (Houston), 25th (Arizona), 23rd (Miami) and 12th (Buffalo) on offense.
4. Oakland Raiders (3-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 59.5 percent
Neither Denver nor Oakland has yet to play a game inside their division, but the Raiders host San Diego and Kansas City over the next two weeks. Because of how well the Broncos are playing, the Raiders are now the NFL team most likely to win a wild card, which they do in 33.6 percent of our simulations this week.
5. Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 56.5 percent
Baltimore and Oakland have actually been somewhat similar so far this year. Both teams have only played games decided by a touchdown or less, and they have played similar schedules: 16th so far for Oakland, 20th for Baltimore. The difference is that Oakland has a strong offense (second) boosting a poor defense (31st), whereas Baltimore has a strong defense (fourth) boosting a poor offense (27th).
6. Houston Texans (3-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 45.6 percent
Don't let a 3-1 record fool you: This team is not good. The Texans rank 29th in DVOA right now and dead-last on offense. Yes, a lot of that is just one awful performance against New England, but even if we removed that game from our ratings, the "undefeated" Texans would rank 23rd in DVOA. That's why the Texans don't even make the playoffs in half of our simulations despite having a two-game lead on the rest of the division.
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7. Buffalo Bills (2-2)
Odds of making playoffs: 40.0 percent
The Bills are a difficult team to get a read on because of the circumstances surrounding their season. Right now, they rank 10th in DVOA, higher than any other 2-2 team. Their 33-18 win over Arizona will look better to our numbers if the Cardinals can fix their problems and play more like they did in 2015, but it will look worse to our subjective opinions if the Cardinals keep struggling all season. And how much credit does the Bills' defense really deserve for shutting out a Patriots offense that was using an injured third-string quarterback?
8. Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
Odds of making playoffs: 36.2 percent
No team saw its playoff odds fall more after Week 4 than Kansas City. The Chiefs' terrible showing against Pittsburgh, combined with wins by Denver and Oakland, dropped their playoff odds almost in half, from 70.3 percent a week ago to just 36.2 percent now.
9. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)
Odds of making playoffs: 34.9 percent
The Bengals look like a very average team this year. They've beaten two very bad teams (Dolphins and Jets) but lost to two very good teams (Broncos and Steelers). But when you combine what we know from 2016 with how well they've played in recent years, it's logical to suggest that the Bengals are going to be in the playoff race all season. It will be tough to win the division again with Pittsburgh and Baltimore playing well and both a game ahead, but each of these three AFC North teams wins a wild card in at least 20 percent of our current simulations.
THE AFC SOUTH IS TERRIBLE
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 22.9 percent
Because DVOA thinks the Texans are nowhere near as good as their 3-1 record, each of the other AFC South teams still wins the division in at least 16 percent of simulations. In 34.4 percent of simulations, the division champion is 8-8 or worse. In 9.4 percent of simulations, the division champion is 7-9 or worse.
11. Indianapolis Colts (1-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 20.7 percent
The Colts' defense has actually been roughly league-average on both first downs and third downs. The problem is that the Colts are the worst defense in the league on second downs, where they allow an average of 8.1 yards per play. Oakland (7.2 yards) is the only other defense to allow more than 6.7 yards per play on second downs.
12. Tennessee Titans (1-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 18.6 percent
It seems like the only thing going right for the Titans right now is the running game, where DeMarco Murray has run for 340 yards and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry. But even that is a bit of a mirage caused by the Titans' schedule. Yes, the Vikings have a great run defense, but the Titans' last three opponents are all bottom of the barrel in run defense DVOA: Detroit is 31st, Oakland is 29th and Houston is 30th.
IN THE RUNNING
13. San Diego Chargers (1-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 16.4 percent
In the first three quarters of the game, San Diego has ranked second in offensive DVOA, behind only Atlanta. In the fourth quarter, San Diego has ranked 31st in offensive DVOA, ahead of only the New York Jets.
LONG SHOTS
14. Miami Dolphins (1-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 9.5 percent
Miami's offensive line has actually been very good so far blocking for a revolving carousel of running backs, but the pass-blocking has been horrific. Miami is currently third in our adjusted line yards metric, but dead last in adjusted sack rate. Speaking of AFC East teams that run better than they pass ...
15. New York Jets (1-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 6.9 percent
The Jets now rank dead last in DVOA -- yes, behind even the Cleveland Browns -- with a remarkably unbalanced team that demonstrates how the cliché about how you need to "run the ball and stop the run" is a crock in the modern, pass-focused NFL. The Jets rank dead last in pass offense DVOA and 31st in pass defense, but seventh in run offense and third in run defense.
NON-SHOT
16. Cleveland Browns (0-4)
Odds of making playoffs: 0.5 percent
The Browns might be winless, but they've found one thing they can build on for the future: the running game. Cleveland is fifth in run offense DVOA. Isaiah Crowell currently leads all running backs in both rushing DVOA and DYAR, and Duke Johnson Jr. trails only Crowell in rushing DVOA among backs with at least 20 carries.
NFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
FAVORITES
1. Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 86.6 percent
With their last two wins, Seattle has improved from 27th to 17th in offensive DVOA and remains No. 1 in defensive DVOA.
2. Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
Odds of making playoffs: 86.2 percent
As well as the Vikings have played so far, they're going to have trouble winning with a running-and-defense philosophy if they can't figure out how to run the football effectively. Right now Minnesota ranks sixth in pass offense DVOA but dead last in the run game. Vikings running backs are averaging just 2.6 yards per carry.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
Odds of making playoffs: 70.2 percent
The Eagles' hot start will be challenged by the schedule over the next few weeks; they play four of five games on the road, and the only home game is against the red-hot Vikings. Surprisingly, that Week 7 matchup is a battle of unbeatens in only 22.2 percent of this week's simulations. Minnesota shouldn't have a problem dispatching Houston this week, but even as well as they are playing, it's unlikely the Eagles will beat both Detroit and Washington on the road.
4. Atlanta Falcons (3-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 65.5 percent
The best possible loss an NFL team can have is on the road against a good team from the other conference, so a loss in Denver this week won't do much to affect Atlanta's playoff chances. Even in simulations in which the Falcons lose and Carolina beats Tampa Bay, Atlanta still wins the NFC South 54 percent of the time.
5. Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 59.9 percent
Green Bay has stuffed opposing runners for a loss or no gain on 34 percent of carries so far this season. No other defense is above 30 percent. Their defense is also No. 1 in adjusted line yards, albeit with just three games instead of the four most other teams have played.
6. Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 56.0 percent
The Cowboys are playing very well, but their schedule is going to get much harder from here on out. But the same can be said for the entire NFC East. Based on average DVOA of remaining opponents, the four toughest schedules left in the NFL belong to the four NFC East teams, in order: Washington, Philadelphia, Dallas and the New York Giants.
CONTENDERS
7. Los Angeles Rams (3-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 43.1 percent
The Rams are the NFC version of the Houston Texans: good defense and horrible offense, with three close wins and one huge loss. The main differences are:
a) Los Angeles has much, much better special teams than Houston. It's particularly important for a defense-first team to have a punter as good as Johnny Hekker.
b) The Rams have a much more difficult road to the playoffs, because Seattle and Arizona are better than any team in the AFC South.
c) With that said, the Rams have an easier remaining schedule, ranked 27th in the NFL.
8. New York Giants (2-2)
Odds of making playoffs: 21.8 percent
The Giants should look better on offense but worse on defense as time goes on, because their red zone performance is likely to move closer to overall performance. So far, the Giants are 16th in offensive DVOA but 28th in the red zone. On defense, however, the Giants are 21st in DVOA but fourth in the red zone.
9. Carolina Panthers (1-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 20.9 percent
The Panthers are going to need to get past Atlanta to return to the playoffs, because the quality of the teams around the rest of the NFC makes it very unlikely a wild card is coming out of the NFC South. Atlanta wins a wild card in only 4.4 percent of simulations, and Carolina in only 4.3 percent.
10. Arizona Cardinals (1-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 19.9 percent
If the Cardinals want to turn things around and try to make it back to the playoffs, they need to figure out how to get their defense off the field on third downs. The Cardinals rank second in defensive DVOA on first downs and eighth on second downs, but 30th on third downs.
11. Washington Redskins (2-2)
Odds of making playoffs: 19.2 percent
Washington has third-down issues on both sides of the ball. The Washington offense ranks 11th in DVOA overall but 30th on third down. The defense, meanwhile, ranks 24th in DVOA overall but dead last on third down. The Redskins allow a league-high average of 8.5 yards on third down. Even worse: In three fourth-and-1 situations this year, Washington has allowed pass completions of 19, 28 and 29 yards.
12. New Orleans Saints (1-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 16.4 percent
The Saints were already in a deep hole after starting 0-3, so their comeback win over San Diego raised their playoff odds by only 6.7 percent. But there's still hope at this point in the playoff odds. Last year after Week 4, Kansas City had only a 13.1 percent chance of making the postseason.
LONG SHOTS
13. Detroit Lions (1-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 11.0 percent
Somehow through four games, the Lions and their opponents have combined for only one fumble, by Tennessee's Marc Mariani on a punt return in Week 2. It ended up out of bounds.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 10.9 percent
The one thing the Bucs have done well this year is stop the run: They rank 11th in run defense DVOA, but 27th in pass defense.
15. Chicago Bears (1-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 8.7 percent
Last week, we noted that while the Bears were winless, at least they were good on special teams. So they went out Sunday and played much better on offense and defense ... but awful on special teams. Connor Barth missed a field goal, and the punt-coverage team gave up an 85-yard touchdown to Andre Roberts. Now the Bears have moved up to 23rd in DVOA overall, but they dropped to 29th on special teams.
16. San Francisco 49ers (1-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 3.6 percent
San Francisco has been better running the ball than passing it, but Football Outsiders' stats suggest the offensive line has been much better pass-blocking than run-blocking. The 49ers rank second in adjusted sack rate, behind only Oakland, but 31st in adjusted line yards, ahead of only Minnesota.
BIGGEST GAMES OF WEEK 5
Each week, we'll look at which games on the schedule will have the biggest effect on playoff odds. This is based solely on wins and losses and doesn't account for how much the results would affect each team's rating. "Swing" is the difference between a team's odds with a win compared to a loss. For example, Green Bay makes the playoffs in 68 percent of simulations when it beats the Giants this week, but only 43 percent of simulations when it loses, for a 25 percent swing.
1) New York Giants (21.9 percent swing) at Green Bay (25.0 percent swing)
2) San Diego (18.6 percent swing) at Oakland (24.9 percent swing)
3) Buffalo (20.0 percent swing) at Los Angeles (20.9 percent swing)
4) Cincinnati (19.1 percent swing) at Dallas (21.0 percent swing)
5) Washington (14.7 percent swing) at Baltimore (20.4 percent swing)
METHODOLOGY
The odds listed here come from a weekly Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation that plays out the rest of the season 50,000 times. Based on our ratings and home-field advantage, a random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. Early in the season, these probabilities are based on a combination of Football Outsiders' preseason projections and DVOA. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, which looks at a team's performance on every play and adjusts based on situation and opponent, explained further here.)
Right now, the ratings used in the simulation are 50 percent forecast and 50 percent performance so far. This is the first week we add in opponent adjustments to our 2016 ratings, and those adjustments are currently at 40 percent of their eventual full strength. Ratings in the future also account for injuries and suspensions; for example, the Patriots' offensive rating is based on a forecast of how they will do with Tom Brady back at quarterback instead of how they played in the first four games with backups.
You can find the full playoff odds report, including the odds of each team winning each of the six seeds and the Super Bowl, on FootballOutsiders.com. Note that our odds will be different than playoff odds you might find elsewhere on ESPN.com (or at FiveThirtyEight.com), because each set of team ratings is computed differently.