On Thursday night, the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs will play the most important game of the 2016 NFL season so far.
It's rare that a game this early in December has such strong implications for who wins the Super Bowl. On Oct. 16, the Chiefs went to Oakland and beat the Raiders 26-10. Another win on Thursday night would give Kansas City a sweep and a tiebreaker advantage over Oakland. That's particularly important because the Chiefs have a schedule advantage in the final three games. Both teams go to San Diego, but the Chiefs also get the Titans and Broncos at home, while the Raiders get the Colts at home and the Broncos on the road.
On the other hand, a Raiders win would give Oakland a two-game lead over Kansas City. Even with the easier of the two remaining schedules, that's almost insurmountable.
So in simulations in which the Raiders win on Thursday, they go on to win the AFC West 88 percent of the time. In simulations in which the Chiefs win, they go on to win the AFC West 68 percent of the time. The division title, which comes with home-field advantage and a likely first-round bye, makes for a dramatic difference in the odds of representing the AFC in Super Bowl LI. Oakland's odds of making the Super Bowl are twice as good with a Thursday win (32.8 percent) compared to a Thursday loss (16.4 percent). Kansas City's odds are more than twice as good: 22.6 percent with a win, 9.3 percent with a loss.
You'll find our playoff odds for all 32 teams below. For a full explanation on how we calculate each team's playoff odds, see the bottom of the article.
AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
FAVORITES
1. Oakland Raiders (10-2)
Odds of making playoffs: 99.3 percent
Paging Travis Kelce: Oakland ranks third in DVOA against short passes (up to 15 yards through the air) on the left side of the field and 11th against short passes on the right side, but 28th against short passes in the middle of the field.
2. New England Patriots (10-2)
Odds of making playoffs: 99.2 percent
The Patriots rise to No. 1 in our ratings this week, but their playoff odds fall slightly behind Oakland's because the Ravens look like a much more dangerous opponent for this Sunday now. More important than playoff odds right now are the odds of getting the No. 1 seed, which will change substantially depending on the results of the Thursday night game. A Chiefs win would give the Patriots a one-game lead over both Kansas City and Oakland. The Patriots get the No. 1 seed in 67 percent of simulations where the Chiefs win Thursday, but only 33 percent of the simulations where the Raiders win Thursday.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 94.3 percent
Kansas City currently ranks 11th in defensive DVOA, but it ranks only 20th on third downs including 19th against the pass. That's not a good weakness against the Raiders, who rank second in offensive DVOA on third down (second passing and ninth rushing).
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
Odds of making playoffs: 59.4 percent
The Steelers and Ravens are still essentially in a battle for the AFC North title, which leaves the loser out in January -- although both teams have seen their wild-card odds rise above 5 percent. The Steelers still have the advantage because they get to host Baltimore on Christmas Day and they have a near-gimme win against Cleveland on New Year's Day.
5. Denver Broncos (8-4)
Odds of making playoffs: 51.1 percent
The Broncos' playoff odds shot back up by 18.4 percent this week, less because of their win and more because of the Dolphins' epic faceplant in Baltimore. Denver has a tough final month, facing the top three teams in the AFC, but the Broncos do get two of them (New England and Oakland) at home. Two of Denver's four lowest offensive DVOA performances this year have come in Paxton Lynch's two starts, so the Broncos really do need Trevor Siemian back.
6. Baltimore Ravens (7-5)
Odds of making playoffs: 50.7 percent
The Ravens rose from 13th to ninth in overall DVOA with the big win over Miami, although the Broncos knocked them down to No. 2 in defensive DVOA. Baltimore's run defense DVOA declined a little bit with Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi's 5.1 yards per carry, but the Ravens are still on pace to break the 2000 Ravens' record. Baltimore also has the No. 1 defense against tight ends ... but the No. 22 defense against running backs in the passing game, so get ready for the Dion Lewis Show on Monday night.
CONTENDERS
7. Indianapolis Colts (6-6)
Odds of making playoffs: 39.9 percent
Ladies and gentlemen, may I present the brand new AFC South favorite, thanks to a schedule that gives them their last two divisional games at home: Sunday against Houston and Week 17 against Jacksonville. The Titans (18th) rank better in DVOA than the Colts (25th), and the Titans average more wins in our simulations (8.2 vs. 8.0). Yet the Colts' 2-2 division record gives them the edge over the Titans, who are 1-3 in the AFC South. However, the Colts' odds of winning the division depend heavily on tiebreakers and winning those last two divisional games, because they will be favored to lose road trips to Minnesota in Week 15 and Oakland in Week 16.
8. Tennessee Titans (6-6)
Odds of making playoffs: 34.0 percent
The Titans run on 46 percent of their first-half plays, trailing only San Francisco and Dallas. They should go even more run-heavy to get a must-have victory over Denver on Sunday, as the Broncos rank No. 1 in pass defense DVOA but No. 26 in run defense.
9. Miami Dolphins (7-5)
Odds of making playoffs: 31.9 percent
Oops. The Dolphins' embarrassing blowout loss to Baltimore dropped their playoff odds by 25.4 percent and plunged them from ninth to 19th in our DVOA ratings.
10. Houston Texans (6-6)
Odds of making playoffs: 28.8 percent
Either Houston or Indianapolis will be the AFC South favorite with a win in Sunday's divisional showdown, but a loss would be worse for Indianapolis than for Houston. The Texans make the playoffs in 15 percent of simulations where they lose Sunday, while the Colts' playoff odds drop to 7.7 percent with a loss.
11. Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Odds of making playoffs: 9.9 percent
The Bills are being kept alive by the league's easiest remaining schedule: Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Miami at home, followed by the Jets on the road.
LONG SHOTS
12. Cincinnati Bengals
Odds of making playoffs: 1.0 percent
Odds of getting No. 1 pick: less than 0.1 percent
Odds of getting top-5 pick: 3.7 percent
13. San Diego Chargers (5-7)
Odds of making playoffs: 0.5 percent
Odds of getting No. 1 pick: None
Odds of getting top-5 pick: 0.6 percent
ELIMINATED
14. New York Jets (3-9)
Odds of getting No. 1 pick: 0.1 percent
Odds of getting top-5 pick: 84.8 percent
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
Odds of getting No. 1 pick: 0.6 percent
Odds of getting top-5 pick: 85.1 percent
16. Cleveland Browns (0-12)
Odds of getting No. 1 pick: 80.5 percent
Odds of getting top-5 pick: 100 percent
Odds of finishing the season 0-16: 36 percent
NFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
CLINCHED
1. Dallas Cowboys (11-1)
Odds of making playoffs: Clinched
The Cowboys are the first team to clinch a playoff spot this season. They now get the No. 1 seed in 93 percent of simulations and are the favorites to both make the Super Bowl (44 percent; Seattle at 25 percent) and win it (23 percent; New England at 22 percent). The Cowboys, Patriots and Seahawks are virtually tied atop our DVOA ratings, but the Rob Gronkowski and Earl Thomas injuries help make a good argument that the Cowboys are clearly the best team in the NFL right now.
FAVORITES
2. Seattle Seahawks (8-3-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 99.0 percent
Seattle is only a half-game ahead of Detroit, but a much easier remaining schedule gives them a much stronger hold on the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. The Seahawks get a bye in 76 percent of simulations and the No. 2 seed in 72 percent of simulations.
3. Atlanta Falcons (7-5)
Odds of making playoffs: 85.2 percent
Three weeks ago, the idea that Tampa Bay would catch up to Atlanta seemed ridiculous, but here we are. Nonetheless, as with the battle for the No. 2 seed between Atlanta and Detroit, the battle for the NFC South isn't as close as it looks because of remaining schedules. The Bucs still have to play a home-and-home against the frisky New Orleans Saints, and they must go win in Dallas in the game that's been flexed into prime time for Dec. 18. The Falcons, on the other hand, get to play the Rams and 49ers in the next two weeks, and their one remaining game against New Orleans is at home to finish off the season.
4. Detroit Lions (8-4)
Odds of making playoffs: 80.6 percent
The Lions are essentially the antimatter Philadelphia Eagles. All year long, we've had to explain why the Eagles have been so high in our ratings. It's because Philadelphia has three huge wins and its losses have generally been very close until the last couple weeks. Well, Detroit is the exact opposite. The Lions are only 26th in DVOA despite an 8-4 record because of three games that rate much worse than they seem at first glance: Week 3 and 4 losses that weren't as close as the final scores, and the Week 6 game where they somehow beat the Rams despite letting Case Keenum throw for 321 yards and three touchdowns. Their other wins are all just slightly above-average. Just as the Eagles are falling apart in recent weeks, the Lions are peaking, with two of their three best rated games coming in the last two weeks.
5. New York Giants (8-4)
Odds of making playoffs: 73.5 percent
Although the Giants got most of their press in the offseason for additions to the pass defense, it's worth noting that DVOA actually rates them better against the run (fifth) than against the pass (seventh). The Giants also have been slightly above average with remarkable consistency: No team has less week-to-week variation in offensive DVOA. They also rank fourth in lowest variation of defensive DVOA.
CONTENDERS
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
Odds of making playoffs: 47.4 percent
The tough schedule, particularly the game in Dallas, makes Tampa Bay a clear underdog for the NFC South title. But the Bucs' win streak, combined with Washington's loss this week, has given them a reasonable path to a wild card. Tampa Bay wins the division in only 21 percent of our simulations, but the Bucs win a wild card 26 percent of the time.
7. Washington Redskins (6-5-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 41.5 percent
Close losses are still losses, and Washington's playoff odds have dropped from 62.6 percent to 41.5 percent over the past two weeks. The Redskins now have the worst defensive DVOA in the league on third and fourth downs, although that won't mean much this week against a Philadelphia offense that ranks 28th in the same situations.
8. Green Bay Packers (6-6)
Odds of making playoffs: 33.4 percent
The Packers move past the Vikings in our playoff odds because their head-to-head win over Detroit back in Week 3 gives them a tiebreaker advantage should the Lions collapse over the final month of the season. However, the Vikings have the better odds of winning a wild card: 15.6 percent to 9.1 percent.
9. Minnesota Vikings (6-6)
Odds of making playoffs: 21.9 percent
Minnesota ranks 25th in offensive DVOA but sixth in defensive DVOA, just one of many teams that illustrate that 2016 is a year without any really good, balanced teams. The top seven teams in offensive DVOA all rank 19th or lower on defense -- in order: Atlanta, Dallas, New England, Oakland, New Orleans, Washington and Tennessee. The top seven teams in defensive DVOA all rank 19th or lower on offense, except for Seattle with is 13th -- in order: Denver, Baltimore, Arizona, Philadelphia, Seattle, Minnesota and the Giants.
LONG SHOTS
10. New Orleans Saints (5-7)
Odds of making playoffs: 6.6 percent
Odds of getting top-5 pick: 0.9 percent
11. Arizona Cardinals (5-6-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 5.5 percent
Odds of getting top-5 pick: 1.3 percent
12. Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)
Odds of making playoffs: 5.5 percent
Odds of Cleveland getting a second top-5 pick: 0.4 percent
13. Carolina Panthers (4-8)
Odds of making playoffs: 0.1 percent
Odds of getting top-5 pick: 18.4 percent
14. Los Angeles Rams (4-8)
Odds of making playoffs: 0.04 percent
Odds of Tennessee getting top-5 pick: 35.1 percent
15. Chicago Bears (3-9)
Odds of making playoffs: 0.01 percent
Odds of getting No. 1 pick: 0.0003 percent
Odds of getting top-5 pick: 69.5 percent
ELIMINATED
16. San Francisco 49ers (1-11)
Odds of getting No. 1 pick: 18.8 percent
Odds of getting top-5 pick: 99.7 percent
Biggest Week 14 games for playoff odds
Each week, we'll look at which games in the coming week will have the biggest effect on playoff odds. This is based solely on wins and losses and doesn't account for how much the results would affect each team's rating. "Swing" is the difference between a team's odds with a win compared to a loss; for example, Houston makes the playoffs in 57.7 percent of simulations where it beats Indianapolis this week, but only 14.8 percent of simulations where it loses, for a 42.9 percent swing.
1. Houston (42.9% swing) at Indianapolis (47.8% swing)
2. Denver (37.9% swing) at Tennessee (33.1% swing)
3. New Orleans (12.7% swing) at Tampa Bay (42.8% swing)
4. Pittsburgh (34.4% swing) at Buffalo (16.8% swing)
5. Washington (39.1% swing) at Philadelphia (8.8% swing)
Biggest Week 14 games for Super Bowl LI odds
Since some of the top teams in the league have now clinched (or are close to clinching) playoff spots, this week we are adding a list of the biggest games to determine odds to appear in Super Bowl LI.
1. Oakland (16.5% swing) at Kansas City (13.2% swing)
2. Baltimore (3.9% swing) at New England (4.7% swing)
3. Seattle (5.4% swing) at Green Bay (2.1% swing)
Methodology
The odds listed here come from a weekly Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation that plays out the rest of the season 50,000 times. Based on our ratings and home-field advantage, a random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. Early in the season, these probabilities are based on a combination of Football Outsiders' preseason projections and weighted DVOA. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric which looks at a team's performance on every play and adjusts based on situation and opponent, explained further here. Weighted DVOA lowers the value of games from more than two months ago to get a better picture of how teams are playing right now.) Some ratings are adjusted for this simulation based on past and future injuries, in particular the injuries to New England's Rob Gronkowski and Seattle's Earl Thomas.
You can find the full playoff odds report, including the odds of each team winning each of the six seeds and the Super Bowl, on FootballOutsiders.com. Note that our odds will be different than playoff odds you might find elsewhere on ESPN.com (or at FiveThirtyEight.com) because each set of team ratings is computed differently.