Every NFL season has surprises, and never more so than this 2020 campaign, but we typically have a good idea of how each team will perform. We turned to our ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) to determine just how good, and how bad, all 32 teams could be this year.
Using the middle 90% of the 20,000 FPI simulations of the season performed by our ESPN Stats & Information team, we identified a ceiling and a floor for each NFL team's expected performance in 2020. Unlikely outliers were eliminated, providing us with realistic best- and worst-case win-total projection scenarios. In other words, roughly 90% of the simulations have the Bills finishing with between six and 11 wins.
What can we expect for each NFL team this year? And what will determine on which end of that win-total spectrum each team eventually falls? FPI crunches the numbers, and our NFL Nation reporters indicate the biggest factor in each team hitting the high or low end of the range.
Ceiling: 11-5 | Floor: 6-10
Biggest variable: Whether Josh Allen has taken the next step. The third-year QB is the single-biggest catalyst for a team that has made improvements on offense and returns a top-three defense from 2019. With the addition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs, Buffalo has tried to build an offense that can keep up with some of the more high-powered units in the conference. On paper, the Bills should be able to, but that will also be heavily reliant on Allen's development as a passer. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Ceiling: 8-8 | Floor: 4-12
Biggest variable: Offensive line play. The Dolphins had the league's worst O-line last season, which played a significant role in them having the worst-ranked rushing attack and giving up a league-high in sacks. Whether it's Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tua Tagovailoa back there for much of the season, the Dolphins' QB1 is going to need a lot more help from the run game and better pass protection up front if the team hopes to push closer to a .500 record in 2020. Miami could have four new starters on the offensive line, including two rookies, so how well this unit gels in an unusual offseason will be a huge variable on the Dolphins' record. -- Cameron Wolfe