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Betting tips for Eastern Conference finals: Celtics-Heat Game 5

The Heat look to take a 3-2 series lead on Wednesday night and might need Jimmy Butler to have a big game to do so. Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images

All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.


What you need to know for Game 5

Playoff P: Payton Pritchard has made 10 of his 24 3-point attempts in this series and while a 54.9% conversion rate is tough to sustain, his role is real ... and it's spectacular. 36.6% of his points scored against the Heat have come from beyond the arc (third-highest in the league), an indicator that the Heat are willing to pack it in. While Jayson Tatum serves as the fulcrum of the Celtics' offense, he's shooting just 29.4% from 3. It's dangerous to try to project Boston's game plan, but it would seem that Tatum playing aggressive is what makes this offense run and with 75% of Pritchard's shots this month coming from deep, he stands to benefit most from a drive-and-kick offense.

Rebound Butler: Jimmy Butler is healthy and as far as we know, a healthy Butler has cashed props consistently in games coming off a loss. Outside of Game 3, in which Butler missed the second half, he has averaged 33.0 PPG on 60.7% shooting during this series. Butler has used the first quarter as a feeling out period, but increased his production as the game continues. In Game 4's against Atlanta and Philadelphia, both coming off a loss, Butler made 2-of-9 shots (nine points) the in first quarter, but went bananas in the second quarter (combined 25 points on 9-of-11 shooting). Butler is sure to take over this game and if you can time it right, there's plenty of profit to be had.

Cleaning the Glass: P.J. Tucker enters Game 5 with a rebounding prop of 4.5 after leading Miami in rebounding chances the past two games. For Boston, Jayson Tatum has averaged a dozen rebounding chances over the last two games and is projected to have nearly seven boards today.

-- Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe


Breaking down Game 5

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
8:30 p.m ET, FTX Arena, Miami, FLA


Line: Celtics (-1.5)
Money line: Celtics (-125), Heat (+105)
Total: 203.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 210.5 points
BPI Win%: Heat (61.3%)

Questionable: Marcus Smart (ankle), Tyler Herro (groin)

Ruled Out: None
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Notable: The Celtics are 17-13 ATS this season in games with a one possession spread (three or fewer points) while the Heat are 14-15. The edge is minor, but over tickets have cashed more often than not for both teams in such situations this season.

Best bet: Celtics -1.5. The Celtics have been the better team for the vast majority of this series, with the Heat only winning three of the 16 quarters so far... and the third of those "wins" was the garbage time fourth quarter of Game 4. The Heat put together a single massive quarter in each of Games 1 and 3 and won both games, but I think the Celtics are locked in enough not to allow a nightmare quarter on Wednesday. If they can do that, they should be able to win Game 5 comfortably. -- Andre Snellings

Best bet: Over 203.5 points. I've hammered the over in this series, which hit the first three games before falling short in Game 4. This correction seems too large, though, from a line of 207.5 down to 203.5. These teams have combined for 204 or more points in five of their last six meetings, going back to the regular season. Yes, the Heat's offense was historically bad in Game 4 ... I think that was a fluke. Playing at home, in the pivot game, I expect the Heat starters to score more than 18 points and for these two teams to regress to the norm and put some points on the board. -- Snellings

Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 39.5 total points assists rebounds. Tatum had a nightmare Game 3, but bounced back in a big way in Game 4. As per his norm. Tatum has only scored under 20 points in three games this postseason. The first time he did so, he responded in his next two games with averages of 34.0 PPG, 5.5 APG and 4.0 RPG. The second time he did so, he responded in his next two games with averages of 32.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG and 4.5 APG. This third time, he is ready and should now be poised to turn in that second straight monster effort in the follow-up. Patterns aside, Tatum knows he'll have to carry a big load in a swing Game 5, on the road, against a Heat team he has proven he can produce against. -- Snellings

Best bet: Over 203.5, Heat team total under 101.5

This series has not been very competitive within individual games, but that doesn't mean it hasn't been a very competitive series overall. Tied at 2-2, with Game 5 taking place in Miami, I like the Heat to bounce back -- especially on offense -- despite how well Boston's defense is playing. Some massive positive regression is due for a Heat starting unit that combined for 18 points and 7-of-36 shooting (19.4%) from the field. They'll bounce back big time from that historically poor performance. The 203.5 total is just a bit too low for me to fire on the under, despite that being my preferential play when these two defensive-minded teams match up. Games 1-3 soared well over this total, averaging 222.0 PPG. -- Tyler Fulghum