| |  MVPs Favre, Warner meet again
By John Clayton
ESPN.com
Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First and 10" column proceeds in "First and Goal" mode for the playoffs as he takes you around the league with a look at the best game of the weekend followed by primers for the other playoff games. Here's his look at the divisional playoffs.
First ... Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams: Brett Favre is a three-time Most Valuable Player. Kurt Warner won his second MVP this season.
That they meet in Sunday's Packers-Rams divisional playoff game is unique. That Warner is favored to beat Favre by 10 points is an even more amazing story. After all, Warner was on the Packers' roster in 1994. He wasn't even a factor.
|  | | Before becoming a two-time MVP quarterback with the Rams, Kurt Warner was an extra arm in the Packers' training camp. |
The Packers gave Warner a $5,000 signing bonus on a two-year deal as an undrafted player to be a training camp arm in 1994. He didn't get many reps in practice and didn't play a preseason game. No wonder. His competition was Favre, Ty Detmer and Mark Brunell.
"This isn't about two guys, but about two good teams and a chance to move one step closer. That is what excites me about this game," said Warner, who answered questions this week via e-mail. "As much as I like to watch Brett play, I hope I don't see too much excitement from him this weekend."
Warner will be weakened by events of the past two weeks. A hit on his vocal chords forced him to stop talking for more than a week. Early morning Wednesday, he had to run to the hospital because he was dehydrated from the flu. His challenge Sunday is facing the various aggressive schemes of Packers defensive coordinator Ed Donatell.
Usually, Warner plays his best when he's mentally challenged. Donatell's defense does that. The Packers do a great job of mixing man and zone blitzes. They mix coverages well, too.
Working against Favre is his record in domed stadiums. He's 2-7 in the Metrodome, 5-5 in the Silverdome, 0-1 in the RCA Dome, 0-1 in the Georgia Dome, 2-0 in the Superdome and 1-0 in the old Kingdome. He won his only game in St. Louis but that was before the Rams shifted their offense into turbo drive.
The biggest problem for Favre in domes is the noise. It screws up his audible calls. Those screw-ups tend to result in interceptions. Most of his worst games have been in domes.
Rams coach Mike Martz must work his magic to create mismatches against the Packers' defense. First of all, there isn't a Packer linebacker who can match up against halfback Marshall Faulk in man coverage. That's an advantage. With LeRoy Butler out for the season, Martz will have Warner try to force mistakes at safety with pump fakes.
More than ever, Martz knows he needs to get a lead and not let up. If the game is close in the second half, the Packers are a dangerous team.
"The thing I like most about Brett, and I don't know Brett, I look at him on tape and the thing that has always impressed me over the years is in tight games the expression on his face in the fourth quarter," Martz said. "His assertiveness and how he takes charge of the team is to me probably the most impressive thing."
The Rams should be able to score on the Packers. Favre should be able to get yardage, but to win against the Rams, he has to get touchdown drives.
... And Goal.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: This game will be more like the Ravens' 13-10 victory in Pittsburgh than the Steelers' 26-21 victory in Baltimore. It will be low-scoring, and it may come down to field goals. Steelers kicker Kris Brown, who missed 14 field goals in the regular season, can't afford a repeat of his four misses in the earlier game in Pittsburgh. Of all the playoff matches, this one is the toughest for the Steelers because of the timing. Halfback Jerome Bettis has been out seven weeks and five games with his torn groin muscle. In the first half, he won't have his timing with the blocking and will have some difficulty establishing the running game against one of the toughest run defenses in the NFL. That will put most of the pressure on quarterback Kordell Stewart, who had six interceptions in the final two regular-season games. The Ravens' defense didn't have Pro Bowl defensive tackle Sam Adams in the game in Baltimore. He's back, and his first step is one of the best in the game. Peter Boulware made his first start at defensive end in the second Pittsburgh game and feels more comfortable at the position. The Ravens should be better on the defensive line. Offensively, the Ravens can't think they will be as successful running the ball as they have in the past month. They changed the offense to emphasize running and avoid turnovers. The Steelers should hold down the running offense. Despite that, expect Terry Allen to keep hitting the running plays up the middle. As long as the Steelers can hold a lead, they should be fine. If they fall behind by four points, no problem. But they can't get into a game in which they trail the Ravens by seven or more points. The Ravens' defense is too tough to try to mount comebacks. Plus, it would take Bettis out of his usual second-half dominance on the ground.
Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots: The Raiders left their playoff game against the Jets with a lot of confidence. Rich Gannon broke out of his slump by upping the tempo of his offense and throwing more intermediate passes. That needs to continue against Bill Belichick's confusing, effective defensive schemes. Expect Tim Brown, who wasn't involved much in the Jets' offensive game plan, to be the featured receiver. Jerry Rice should continue to excel with the slant routes and the crossing patterns. The Raiders' big concern continues to be the defense, which surrendered big chunks of yards and 24 points against the Jets. The Patriots' offensive success has been quarterback Tom Brady's ability to make long drives and turn them into touchdowns. The key for the Raiders is making sure Sebastian Janikowski and punter Shane Lechler make the Patriots drive a long field. Brady has done a wonderful job of engineering the long drives without making turnovers. The Raiders will need their best games from their safeties because if they give up big plays on defense, they won't survive in the cold weather in Foxboro. Knowing Belichick's attention to detail, expect him to crowd the middle of the field with his defensive tackles and make sure that they try to deflect passes at the line of scrimmage. The Patriots won't be able to get the passes outside easily to Troy Brown and David Patten because of the fine man-to-man coverage of Eric Allen and Charles Woodson. They need to work the middle of the field to be successful.
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears: The Bears find out Saturday if they are for real. They learned during the season they have the perfect model for a playoff team. They run the ball well with Rookie of the Year Anthony Thomas. They play great run defense. Quarterback Jim Miller threw only 10 interceptions all season. That formula usually translates to nine or 10 victories, and the Bears parlayed that into a 13-win season. For the playoffs, Miller faces the confusion of the Eagles' complex blitzing schemes. Expect him to concentrate on early running plays because the simplest way to attack a zone blitzing scheme is with the run. One of the Bears' defensive weaknesses has been the screen pass, which the Eagles execute as well as anyone in football. With Duce Staley, the Eagles don't run much up the middle, but when they do, they enjoy reasonable success. Their 4.0-yard rushing average up the middle is the third best in the NFL. Part of that average is Donovan McNabb's success with the draw play. Bears coach Dick Jauron may have to spy him at the line of scrimmage. The Eagles aren't great for scoring touchdowns. They averaged two a game during the regular season. Getting two touchdown drives and a couple of field goals may be enough to win what should be a low-scoring affair.
John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.
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