| |  First ... and 10: Avoiding a super blowout
By John Clayton
ESPN.com
Editor's note: ESPN senior NFL writer John Clayton's weekly "First and 10" column takes a quick look at Super Bowl XXXVI with 10 things to watch on Sunday.
First ... Already, I've gone on record as saying the Rams will win big, so my opinion is already out there.
Still, there are some compelling ways for the Patriots to make Super Bowl XXXVI interesting. Their confidence as a team grew from that Nov. 18 game in which they battled the Rams hit for hit, pass for pass, run for run in what turned out to be an entertaining 24-17 St. Louis victory in Foxboro.
Even though mostly everyone is forecasting scores similar to my 42-20 Rams prediction, the Patriots are well-coached and show a lot of character. As coaches and players, they made the most out of the least. They had the league's second-lowest payroll but made the jump from last to first in the AFC East.
It's been a strange Super Bowl. The NFL wanted a low-key celebration after the Sept. 11 bombings, so the hype has been held down even though Super Bowl week is being held in the world's best party town. Both teams are filled with smart, intelligent players who aren't talking much smack and aren't saying anything that will make headlines.
|  | | Dexter McCleon, right, gets tackled by Kevin Faulk after making this first-quarter pick in the Rams' Nov. 18 win. |
This Super Bowl has been so quiet, in fact, that Bill Belichick made most reporters miss a New Orleans-sponsored media party to await his expected announcement that Tom Brady would be the starting quarterback. Despite that, Belichick wasn't even criticized.
Welcome to the most subdued Super Bowl in recent memory.
... And 10. The fascinating study will be what new schemes New England defensive coordinator Romeo Crennell comes up with for Sunday's game. The question is: Can Crennell come up with more than he used in the last meeting with the Rams? The Patriots emptied their defensive playbook in the game. Not only did they use packages with six and seven defensive backs, but they even threw in a look of the old Chicago Bears' 46 defense. How well did it work? The strategy held the Rams to 24 points, but the Patriots still surrendered 401 yards passing.
9. Kurt Warner seems about as healthy as he has been in weeks. That's bad news for the Patriots. When Warner is on, there is no defense that can stop him. The New England regular-season game was the one that turned around his season. He took a pain-killing injection in his right thumb before it and was red hot the rest of the season. Last Sunday, before the victory over the Eagles, Warner took a pain-killing injection for his muscle problems around his ribs. Now they feel great. That's more bad news for the Patriots.
8. Coach Bill Belichick was definite in how he handled whether or not to start Tom Brady at quarterback. He waited until he saw Brady practice on his sore ankle Wednesday, brought Brady and Drew Bledsoe in for a 7:30 p.m. meeting and announced that Brady was the starter. What Belichick isn't saying is how long he will go with Brady if he struggles. Don't be surprised if Belichick has a quick hook if the Patriots fall two touchdowns behind early. Belichick is all about winning. If Brady can't perform as well as normal, Belichick knows Bledsoe is hungry and won't be as rusty. Bledsoe coming off the bench is better than Brady coming off the bench because of the former's experience.
7. In the first meeting, the Patriots occasionally put linebacker Roman Phifer on Rams halfback Marshall Faulk in man-to-man pass coverage matchups. Not a good move. That's where the Patriots have a big problem. They don't have a linebacker who can match the speed of Faulk. They are less equipped than the Eagles and Bears for that, in fact. If the Patriots are forced to use man-to-man coverage against Faulk, they will have to use an extra defensive back.
6. Martz proved in the NFC championship game that he can be conservative. It's funny. Many critics have been going around during Super Bowl week saying Martz turned too conservative last week in the biggest game of the season. Bull. If anything, the victory over Philly was a breakthrough for the mad professor of deep, high-risk passing. Running Faulk seven consecutive times in the second half showed that the Rams can play a little power football. If the Patriots baffle the Rams with zone schemes, the Rams can now come back with confidence and gash them with the run.
5. Special teams. Both teams have placed an importance on special teams, which should make this category a tie. Martz was so upset about his special teams last year that he was ready to fire the coach at midseason. He ended up doing so after the season and hired Bobby April, one of the best in the business. Thanks to April, the Rams have one of the most complete special-teams units in football. They are solid in every area. The Patriots showed how valuable their special teams were in getting 14 points out of the unit in their AFC title game victory over the Steelers.
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The Rams know that taking the Patriots lightly can get you to a hospital fast. |
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4. It will be interesting to see how Belichick attacks the right side of the Rams' offensive line now that Rod Jones has been named the starting right tackle. The Rams seem to like what they see of Jones, who is bigger but not as athletic as the injured Ryan Tucker. Jones is playing despite a groin injury. Left tackle Orlando Pace is playing despite a medial collateral sprain. The Rams overall won't be as athletic in their pass protections.
3. Don't expect the Rams' defense to blitz to put pressure on Brady. In the last game, the Rams used their defensive line stunts instead of blitzes to pressure Brady. The Rams limited the Patriots to 230 total yards in that game, including only 51 rushing. Brady threw two interceptions, and if he does that again the blowout might be more than 22 points.
2. The Rams won't come in too overconfident. They already know how physical the Patriots are. Five Rams suffered injuries Nov. 18 at New England. Defensive end Leonard Little hurt a knee and missed a couple of weeks. First-round choice Damione Lewis suffered a season-ending injury. The Rams know that taking the Patriots lightly can get you to a hospital fast.
1. Watch for cornerback Ty Law to match up on wide receiver Isaac Bruce, Otis Smith to work on Torry Holt and Terrell Buckley to take Az-Zahir Hakim. Though they surrendered 401 passing yards in the first game against the Rams, the Patriots' secondary came away knowing they weren't beaten on many big plays.
John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.
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SB XXXVI Over/Under
