| |  Staying at the top difficult in today's NFL
By John Clayton
ESPN.com
NEW ORLEANS -- For the St. Louis Rams, the defeat against the New England Patriots on Sunday wasn't the end of
their run of Super Bowls.
Still, the timetable on their chances of a dynasty
suffered a severe blow when Adam Vinatieri hit that 48-yard field goal at as
the clock struck zero in the Patriots' 20-17 victory Sunday.
The good news for the Rams is that they should return pretty much intact
for a Super Bowl run next season. Two of their top three free agents -- wide
receiver Az-zahir Hakim and defensive end Leonard Little -- are valuable
players, but they are backups. They could lose middle linebacker London
Fletcher, a move that would be a big blow to the defense.
In other words, there are no free agent concerns that would prevent the Rams
from being in Super Bowl contention next season.
"The key to any organization now is identifying the core players," Rams
president Jay Zgmunt said. "Still, it's always difficult. We have one
starter up on defense. Az Hakim is important as a third receiver. Little
provides the pass rush to our defense. But I think we can have most of a
starters for next year, but you just don't know."
Where the problem begins is in 2003. Halfback Marshall Faulk would need a
new contract by then. The only offensive lineman under contract in 2003 is
guard Adam Timmerman. Worse, the team is $16 million over the cap.
Zgmunt does a great job of managing the cap and handling the payroll. He
admits there probably isn't a day out he doesn't have
to think about figuring out ways to keep their talent.
But the cycle is short for top teams because of the cap. The Packers felt
they were on the verge of joining the elite Super Bowl teams until the
Denver Broncos stop their Super Bowl run at one. They've never been back.
The cap broke up the Packers. It will break up the Rams, and more than
likely it will happen sooner rather than later. The key for the Rams is
drafting as well as they did this year, and that will be difficult.
After all, falling into the wild-card spot and being able to get a
first-round choice for quarterback Trent Green gave the Rams the chance to
draft starters for their defense. Eight starters were replaced on defense.
They made huge gains with the development of safety Adam Archuleta and
linebacker Tommy Polley. Defensive tackles Ryan Pickett and Damione Lewis
should be bigger factors next season.
"We are no different than any other team if you are a veteran team,"
Zgmunt said. "The one thing you know about this system is that it's hard to
keep veteran players. Basically, you must go with the draft. You have no
choice. The draft has never been more important."
The Rams have $4 million of room under the cap for 44 players, so
effectively, they are at the cap. Until the start of the regular
season, teams count the 51 highest cap numbers and can never go over the
$71.7 million cap number. With tenders to restricted free agents and including
the salaries of the seven players to get them to 51, the Rams don't have the
greatest amount of wiggle room.
Another problem is that they are once again drafting at the bottom of the
first round. Teams that draft toward the bottom often take
gambles on players with injuries or take a role player to fill a need.
Where the Rams figure to have some problems is maintaining depth. They got bargains in signing players such as defensive ends Chidi Ahanotu and Sean
Moran, offensive tackle Rod Jones, running back Robert Holcombe and tight
end Jeff Robinson.
It wouldn't be out of the question for Tony Dungy to try to recruit Ahanotu
to Indianapolis because he knows the defense the Colts plan to install.
The great receiving corps could also be halved next season if Hakim
leaves for the Chiefs and if Ricky Proehl retires. Their ability to play at
relatively low cap figures and have full knowledge of the offense has been
invaluable.
"As an organization, the top people work so well together," general
manager Charley Armey said. "Mike Martz, Jay, John Shaw and myself all try
to agree on a move before we do things. By doing it that way, there is less
chance for an error. I think you hear rumors of us not getting along because
a lot of people don't want it to work. It works because it's well
structured. We didn't get here by accident."
Still, next year is critical. The Rams move into a new division that will be
tougher than the old NFC West. The 49ers are a playoff team, and the
Seahawks are on the verge of becoming one. The only potential easy team
would be the Arizona Cardinals, but they became more respectable under Dave
McGinnis.
Another potential problem for 2003 could involve the defensive coaching
staff. Defensive coordinator Lovie Smith should start to emerge as a future
head coaching candidate.
That's why getting that Super Bowl ring was so important for the Rams. It's
hard to stay on top. Ask the Ravens, who are breaking up the team after two
runs at the Super Bowl. Ask the Titans, who fell last season. Pretty soon,
you'll be asking the Rams.
John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.
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