| |  Head coaches get top billing
By Ron Jaworski
ESPN.com
The NFL playoffs are about terrific football games and outstanding coaches, whose strategies play an integral part in determining the outcome of each game. Saturday's AFC divisional playoff (CBS, 8 p.m. ET) between the New England Patriots and Oakland Raiders is no different, an intriguing matchup of X's and O's.
For Oakland, head coach Jon Gruden is a great designer of offense. He understands breaking down a defense and knows how to create favorable matchups. New England's Bill Belichick is the same way defensively. Both are creative and innovative with their schemes, taking away what an opponent wants to do and forcing it to go with Plan B.
|
Baxter's Bits
|
|
Including playoffs, Raiders wide receiver Jerry Rice has caught 56 passes for 876 yards and seven touchdowns in his last nine games.
The Patriots have limited the opposition to 17 or fewer points in six straight games and 11 of 16 contests this season.
Raiders head coach Jon Gruden is 2-1 in postseason play; Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 1-1 (both games with Browns).
Russell Baxter is an NFL research coordinator for ESPN.
|
Gruden's offense stumbled late in the season, but he got it back on the right track in last week's wild-card win over the Jets. First, the Raiders got the power running game going. They did not play a finesse game with a diet of counter treys, sweeps and traps. They used man-on-man base blocking and a north-south attack, dominating the Jets' front seven.
Once the Raiders were able to establish the run, forcing the Jets' safeties to get nosey, they were able to get favorable matchups in the passing game for Rich Gannon. While Gannon struggled down the stretch and didn't appear to be healthy, he was sharp against the Jets. He made proper reads and got the ball to his receivers on time and with conviction. He threw with much more authority and looks to be 100 percent.
I was concerned that the Raiders, being an older team, might also be tired. But their giddyup appears to be back. Their defense, however, still has concerns after allowing the Jets to produce 410 yards of total offense. They are having trouble stopping the run consistently. Although defensive tackle Grady Jackson is playing solid football, the Raiders often lose their gap discipline and responsibility in the running game.
And it looks like teams are picking on cornerback Eric Allen in the passing game. They are creating matchups to get him in single coverage. The Jets had success spreading the field to take advantage of the Raiders' poor tackling in the secondary.
Although the Patriots have played only one game the past month, their defense had problems as well in their final regular-season game. It was not a meaningless game; they had to win to guarantee a bye. And while they won 38-6, the Patriots' front seven did not play well against the run. Carolina, the league's worst rushing team, ran for 193 yards, not a good sign for the Patriots. If Gruden sees that on tape, he will believe New England is susceptible to the run.
Offensively, Tom Brady struggled at the end of the season, throwing two touchdown passes and five interceptions in his last four games. Much of his problems could be attributed to the defenses he faced. Once they were able to get a book on him, they were able to make him play to his weaknesses. Although he throws a pretty good deep ball and is precise in the short passing game, Brady is not an accurate intermediate thrower, in the 15- to 20-yard range. When teams took away the short passes, he had trouble.
The bye week was the best thing that could have happened to the Patriots, or any team. They had an opportunity to heal and should be healthier for Saturday's game than they were for any other game during the season.
Something often overlooked is the full week that the New England coaches had to break down the Raiders. The Patriots were able to develop a more comprehensive game plan, giving them a huge advantage.
It should be a punch-counterpunch game, with both teams trying to feel each other out in the beginning. Because the Patriots had so much time to prepare, no one knows what they will do. So Gruden probably will be more conservative early in the game in order to get a read.
Here are the keys for both teams Saturday:
Three keys for the Raiders
1. Stop the run. The Raiders were ranked 22nd in the league in rushing defense and gave up 4.6 yards per carry, the most in the AFC. It's critical that they shut down Smith.
2. Throw down the field. They will need to throw down the field based on what Belichick will design. Belichick likes to take away what a team does best, and for the Raiders that's the short passing game. I wouldn't be surprised to see Belichick use the defense he used against Peyton Manning this year, where he rushed three, played six underneath and two deep. He took away the passing lanes. If Belichick gives the Raiders opportunities to go down the field, Gannon needs to be accurate and hit a few.
3. Burden on Brady. The Raiders must force Brady to throw the football. They must shut down New England on first down and put Brady in known passing situations on second and third downs.
|
In Their Fox-hole
|
|
The Patriots have won each of their last three home playoff games in dominating fashion. New England has outscored its opponents by a combined score of 65-12, and the did not allow a touchdown in any of those games. The Pats' pass defense was they key in those games, coming up with six interceptions and holding opposing QBs to a combined passer rating of 33.4.
|
|
|
Patriots
|
Opp.
|
|
Wins
|
3
|
0
|
|
PPG
|
21.7
|
4.0
|
|
TD
|
8
|
0
|
|
QB rating
|
65.2
|
33.4*
|
|
*0 TD passes, 6 INT
|
Three keys for the Patriots
1. Establish the run. The Patriots need to run the football to keep their offense on schedule and find themselves in second-and-six or less, or third-and-three or less, so that every offensive package is available to them. If they get into known passing situations, it will limit what they do offensively. With Smith running the ball, the Patriots have tried to maintain their balance. It's asking too much of a young quarterback like Brady to carry the team. They want to establish the run and then use the play-action passing game. They don't want to find themselves in second- and third-and-long and behind in the game. If they have to rely on Brady, they will be in trouble.
2. Get it to Brown. Troy Brown needs to get the ball early. He is Brady's go-to receiver and the foundation of the Patriots' offense. The Patriots will try to create some space for their receivers and backs, get them out on the edges and force the Raiders to tackle in the open field. Their passing attack is formulated around Brown, who can line up wide or in the slot, go in motion, or come out of the backfield. The Raiders can try to match up Charles Woodson with Brown, but that will be impossible on a consistent basis because the Patriots line him up in a number of places.
3. Play the 4-3 and stop the run. They can't just line up and play a base defense against the Raiders. They will need to use some slants, stunts, twists and play a lot of games up front and at times bring Lawyer Milloy down in the box to defend the run. I don't think they can withstand the Raiders' physical style of football for 60 minutes without bringing an eighth man down in the box. The Patriots are probably the only team in football that plays two base defenses, the 3-4 and the 4-3. They fluctuate back and forth between the two. But against Carolina, their 3-4 couldn't stop the run. Now that the Patriots are healthy, I believe they will show a heavier dose of their 4-3 defense, giving them a better opportunity to stop the run.
|
|
|
FFL Playoff Challenge
