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The toughest pick 'em of them all
By Mark Malone
ESPN.com

This game is set up to be a nasty, knock-down-drag-out, physical affair. Neither team is going to fool the other -- everyone knows full well that both the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers (CBS, 12:30 ET Sunday) are going to run the ball -- which means this will likely come down to the play of the quarterbacks, Elvis Grbac and Kordell Stewart, and the special teams.

Just when each team thought it had a specific, key component of its game come together, they are facing an opponent who is better equipped than ever to match up. For instance -- the Ravens are running the ball better than they've run it all year, but they won't be able to run it down the throat of the No. 1 rushing defense in the league. At the same time, Jerome Bettis is finally fresh for the Steelers, but the Ravens are playing much better defense now than they were the first two times these teams met.

They split the regular season games, but the Steelers dominated most aspects of both games. However, the Ravens that everyone have doubted all season long are beginning to look like the Ravens no one doubted at this time last year -- they may just be hitting their stride at the perfect time.

This game, just like the Raiders-Patriots and Eagles-Bears, really is a pick 'em. But with a big, huge asterisk next to the pick, I'm going to say the Steelers win, at home, in a very, very close one.

The keys to each teams' success will be almost mirror images of each other, because these teams really do match up that closely. Here are the keys for both teams Sunday:

Three keys for the Steelers
1. Persistence in the running game. They don't have to necessarily be successful, but they must be persistent running the ball with Jerome Bettis.

2. Stewart must make the big play down the field. In the first two meetings between the Steelers and the Ravens, Kordell Stewart's big numbers were no small part of the Steelers' success. Stewart will have plenty of opportunities to throw because the Ravens will overplay the run. When he gets the chance, he has to take it. Stewart made big plays to Bobby Shaw and Plaxico Burress in the Steelers' victories the first two times -- he must do it again now more than ever.

3. Score touchdowns in the red zone. The Steelers can not leave this thing up to Kris Brown. The last person Bill Cowher wants to see on the field in the last two minutes of the game is Brown -- he simply misses too many field goals. Not only does he miss FGs, but in doing so, he keeps the Ravens in the game. In both previous meetings, the Steelers dominated every facet of the game, but the Ravens were hanging around in the fourth quarter because the Steelers missed key field goals.

Three keys for the Ravens
1. Persistence and success in the running game. Like the Steelers, the Ravens too need to pound away running the ball. Unlike the Steelers, the Ravens need to have at least some success doing so, because Grbac will not be able to make the plays Kordell Stewart will. The Ravens' recent success running the football has been impressive, but that is not why it is key. It's key because it helps Grbac succeed --it benefits Grbac more than it benefits the running game.

2. Help Grbac succeed. Brian Billick understands that Grbac must be in a comfort zone if the Ravens are to win. A successful running game puts Grbac in a situation where he can throw the ball in man coverage, out of play action, where he can get some protection.

3. Create turnovers. The Ravens haven't allowed a touchdown in 54 playoff drives. 54. In five playoff games, they've given up zero touchdown passes, while they've had 11 interceptions. If they are to win this football game, they have to keep up that trend. They have to counter their shortcomings on offense by creating turnovers -- give the offense as many chances as possible.

Mark Malone is the host of NFL 2Night




.