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Public makes bookmakers' day on Super Sunday
By Darren Rovell
ESPN.com
SAN DIEGO -- Billions of dollars are on the line, but bookmakers' jobs usually aren't when it comes to Super Bowl Sunday.

Although as much as $6 billion (only about $75 million in Las Vegas) will be wagered on Super Bowl XXXVII -- through both legal and illegal means -- the Super Bowl is usually one of the best events of the year for Las Vegas sports books and online gambling outlets. That's because a large majority of bets are being placed by a more passionate public, instead of a more calculating professional gambler.

"A real gambler looks on the board on the Saturday before the Super Bowl, when there are 70 college basketball games on the board, and he sees which one he can take advantage of because we are too busy watching the line for the bigger game," said John Avello, director of the race and sports book at Bally's and Paris Las Vegas.

PROP BETS
  • Will either team score in the final 2 minutes of the first half?
  • Will both teams make 33 yard or longer field goals?
  • Will there be a safety?
  • What team will have the first penalty of the game?
  • Will the Raiders convert a 4th down attempt?
  • Will their be a successful two point conversion?
  • Will Rod Woodson intercept a pass?
  • Who will have more: Zack Crockett rushing yards or Tyson Chandler points?
  • Who will have more: Raiders points or Yao Ming's points and rebounds?
  • Source: Imperial Palace
    Professional and compulsive gamblers could prefer the smaller game on the board over the Super Bowl because they feel like they have a better chance of picking a winner.

    "The people that consistently bet think they have an advantage or some inside information that no one else is privy to," said Dr. Howard Shaffer, director of the division on addictions at Harvard Medical School.

    But with the media covering every heartbeat during the week leading up to the Super Bowl, finding out a piece of critical information -- like a particular player's injury -- or even believing that information is somehow proprietary well in advance of the bookmakers is a very tough task.

    "If there's any time where information isn't an issue, it's at the Super Bowl," said Joe Lupo, director of the race and sports book at Stardust Hotel & Casino.

    Bookmakers say the public -- many of whom are once-a-year bettors -- doesn't pay as much attention to the line and bets more than it usually would because they want the Super Bowl to take on a greater importance.

    Professional gamblers just want to make money, and good bookmakers know how to lure the novice and keep the pros away.

    One of the ways the inexperienced gets lured is by proposition bets. Las Vegas books such as Imperial Palace and online sports book World Sports Exchange post almost 200 proposition bets on their boards.

    While bookmakers acknowledge that the more proposition bets they post, the more likely there is a possibility of a bad line, "wise guys" who are used to crunching numbers know that many of the propositions aren't smart bets.

    "The average guy might look at the proposition bet that asks how many tackles Warren Sapp will have and he'll pick the over on 2.5 tackles," said Jay Kornegay, director of the race and sports book at Imperial Palace. "But he won't realize that Warren Sapp averages something like 1.3 tackles per game."

    In 1991, about 10 percent of all Super Bowl dollars wagered at Imperial Palace was on prop bets. This year, prop bets will make up about 65 percent, Kornegay said.

    “ The average guy might look at the proposition bet that asks how many tackles Warren Sapp will have and he'll pick the over on 2.5 tackles. But he won't realize that Warren Sapp averages something like 1.3 tackles per game. ”
    — Jay Kornegay, Imperial Palace
    One way to cut the risk of the professional gamblers exploiting a weakness is to set a maximum amount that can be placed. At the Imperial Palace the maximum is a $1,000, though Kornegay says he's somewhat flexible.

    "Most sports books will lose money on prop bets on every day of the year but the Super Bowl," said Steve Schillinger, director of wagering at World Sports Exchange. "Las Vegas gets killed by the wise guys, but that's not the case when the public is dominating the gambling scene."

    Schillinger, who estimates that World Sports Exchange will accept about $5 million in bets on the Super Bowl, says the books have a hard time beating the professional gamblers.

    "The best ones have million-dollar computer programs and are connected to a lot of people," Schillinger said.

    The two most important pieces of information in football are injuries and weather reports. Injury information is extremely guarded by team doctors and anyone on the medical staff, said Elliott Pellman, the New York Jets team doctor who is the former president of the NFL Physicians Society.

    Pellman gives injury information to the team's general manager, Terry Bradway, and head coach Herman Edwards on Monday, and injury reports are released on Wednesday.

    "If I read about medical information that the player or the team has not given out, I immediately launch my own investigation," Pellman said. While Pellman has done this on rare occasion, he has never concluded that the information was released in a gambler's best interest.

    "We're much more concerned with injuries and weather for obscure college football games than for the Super Bowl," Kornegay said. "We might have received a weather report, but they could be talking to some guy standing at the stadium. We have a slight chance of rain and the guy might know that it's definitely raining."

    But Kornegay says that if a huge amount of money is bet on a smaller game, the sports book has the right to investigate and not accept the bet. This happens every couple of weeks, although he says that it doesn't always turn out to be a case of inside information.

    "Especially with the Internet, there's very little that doesn't get out there," Lupo said. "The Super Bowl is the most public of all games, and that's why it's one of the easiest days of the year to book."

    Darren Rovell, who covers sports business for ESPN.com, can be reached at darren.rovell@espn3.com.






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