Saturday, Jan. 30 5:28pm ET
The NFL Draft looms large
With only two teams left playing in the NFL, all the other teams have shifted their attention to the draft. Who better to get all the inside information from than ESPN's NFL analyst and draft expert Mel Kiper Jr.

Kiper hit chat just prior to the Super Bowl and touched on pretty much every team in the league and made his predictions as to who would go where on draft day. He also revealed which players have climbing stock, and which are falling fast.

Check out this edited transcript from Kiper's Jan. 29 chat and find out his prediction on the Super Bowl.

 Tim Couch
 Where will Kentucky's Tim Couch go in the NFL Draft?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Good afternoon and welcome again. Today, we can talk about the Super Bowl, the draft, etc. For those interested in my updated top 50 prospects, go to the NFL page on ESPN.com, click on other features and scroll down and it is there. A number of changes since last time out. Fire away.

Legend: I have heard that the Rams will make a move for Philly's pick at No. 2. Is this accurate?

Mel Kiper Jr.: If the Rams want to move up, it is obviously to get Ricky Williams. RB is the position they need most, outside of QB, where they might take McNabb at No. 6. Until they land a big-time QB, they will remain in the Top 10 of the draft for several years. If you move up to take the RB, you still don't have the triggerman. You can put to rest some of the RB problems in a later pick or two.

I have also heard that Philadelphia would consider trading down as an option. They could acquire some valuable second, third or fourth round picks. To me, the Eagles desperately need a RB, and at No. 2, you could get the best player available. Usually the No. 1 draft player on my board isn't available at No. 2. Last year it happened when Andre Wadsworth was No. 1 on my board.

Kevin Hornsby: We Virginia fans appreciated what you had to say about the draft prospects in the Peach Bowl. How has Anthony Poindexter's knee injury effected his draft position? Where would he have gone if he hadn't gotten hurt?

Mel Kiper Jr.: He would have been a mid-first rounder. The injury clouds the situation, so I'd say second or third round. A lot will depend on the exams at the combine workouts. He could go in Round 2 if he is healthy. If there is a chance he will miss his rookie year based on the medical testing, he'd go third round. I have him around No. 44 right now, and if he was 100 percent, I would have had him at 15-20 area.

Bronco: Do the Broncos match up defensively?

Mel Kiper Jr.: They match up defensively against the run game. They also have to put pressure on Chris Chandler, who is an accurate short to medium range passer. If you stop Jamal Anderson, then you have to shut down Chandler, who can beat you. The key for Atlanta is to keep it close into the fourth quarter and make sure the defense isn't forced to be on the field the whole time. The Falcons' defense doesn't have as much depth. If Atlanta can keep the number of possessions for John Elway and Terrell Davis down, it would help. I see Denver up three or six points into the fourth quarter.

Time of possession will be a key. If Atlanta has the ball enough, it can win this game. If Denver has a big edge, it could be a 13-point game. My pick: Denver 27, Atlanta 24. Early in the week, I thought Denver by 10-13. My gut feeling is Atlanta can keep it tight.

Dave: Why do teams waste all their money on scouts and draft people and war rooms when they could just take your player rankings, cross them off when they get picked, and then take the highest rated person.

Mel Kiper Jr.: That's interesting. Do you want to be my publicist?

SkinsFan: Who are some of your sleeper picks in this year's draft?

Mel Kiper Jr.: L. J. Shelton has moved up and I see him as the No. 11 pick to Washington. Mike Peterson the OLB from Florida in the first round, Patrick Kerney, DE, Virginia late in the first round. Pepe Zellner, DE, Fort Valley State in Georgia, the school which gave us Tyrone Poole, could be a solid second or third rounder.

Todd: I knows it's still a little early but what are the Steelers going to do on draft day -- any guys that pop in your mind?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Right now I have them projected taking Chris McAlister of Arizona. With Chad Scott coming off injury, and Carnell Lake and Daren Perry may be going elsewhere, they need a pure corner. At this stage of the first round, he would be a bargain there. Some are projecting him higher. Few people had Rod Woodson available at No. 10 in his draft year, projecting him at 3-4. He fell right to the Steelers.

Hilly: Where do you think D. McNabb will end up?

Mel Kiper Jr.: I currently project him No. 6 to St. Louis. They need a QB desperately. He has the rocket arm, escapability and charisma as a leader -- command in the huddle. I think it would be a great pick for the Rams.

Patsfan: What do you see for the Patriots with their two low first round picks? Any chance Gibson will be there? Should they go after Fryar?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Both lines would be the priority. I do have them taking Gibson at No. 20 right now. Even if Gibson doesn't slide down that far, they would take advantage of the depth in this area. Jon Jansen, Matt Stinchcomb, Kris Farris and Solomon Page would all figure in that area. The other pick I'd say DL. Larry Smith of Florida State has moved into a first round prospect. He has to do well in individual testing/combine workouts. He sat out the Fiesta Bowl with the high ankle sprain. He's a force collapsing the pocket, and with a thin year at DL, he could be a good pick in the first round.

KarmaPolice: How many potential "franchise" QB's do you envision in this draft? I know you like Couch and McNabb, but what about Smith and Culpepper?

KIPER'S FILE
Mel Kiper Jr. has served as expert analyst for ESPN's annual NFL draft coverage since 1984, providing in-depth information on the nation's most talented collegiate football players. His pre-draft predictions are frequently the most accurate in the business, often as much as 80 percent correct on first-round selections.

Kiper is also a frequent contributor to ESPN's award-winning SportsCenter during the NFL and college football seasons and provides occasional updates throughout the year.

Mel Kiper Jr.: Start with Tim Couch. Franchise is a stretch. You hope that he is that type of QB, but is it fair to put that much pressure on him? The key, particularly with Couch, is treating him differently than other juniors coming out, like Tommy Maddox as a third-year sophomore, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Heath Shuler and even Ryan Leaf last year. You have to handle him differently than a Peyton Manning last year. McNabb opted to come back for another season. He's coming in as a QB that has been in the college game for a long time. Chris Palmer, Carmen Policy and company will not force feed Couch. Smith has the strongest arm, pure passer, tight spiral, and has a chance to be a good NFL QB. I project him No. 7 to the Bears. Culpepper needs some work, including his vision on the field. I see him currently at No. 15 to the Bucs.

Ari: Does Miami have a shot to trade up and get Edgerrin James?

Mel Kiper Jr.: I think they'd have to go from No. 24 to No. 5, where I feel Washington would take him. To give up so much, that would be tough. I see them moving off 24, and looking at WR. Guys like David Boston, Torry Holt and Troy Edwards will likely be gone by then. To get an elite skill player, Jimmy Johnson would probably move up. Peerless Price could still be there, though Dallas could jump on him before the Dolphins get the shot. Johnson has always gone up to get the player he wants.

Steve: Kansas City typically goes after proven college players rather than on just future potential. With this in mind, and with the Chiefs with the No. 14 pick, which players do you think they could go after?

Mel Kiper Jr.: The need areas are DE, trying to go back to the standard 4-3 defense. Derrick Thomas will operate primarily at OLB on the weakside. They just signed Donnie Edwards in the MLB. OT is also a need again since Jeff Criswell could move on, Glenn Parker is getting up there in years. CB could be a concern since Dale Carter is a free agent. RB would be the fourth need area. I am projecting a guy who is a slight reach right now but he played well in the Senior Bowl with two sacks and a hurry, Nebraska's Mike Rucker.

Coach: Where do you think the Vikings will head with early round picks ?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Do they end up moving up to No. 10 from Baltimore in a Brad Johnson deal? They have No. 29 overall. CB is an area to think about. They have Hitchcock, Fuller whom they have to re-sign. Fred Vinson, CB, Vanderbilt could be the No. 29 pick. If they end up with the No. 10 pick, remember free agency could affect things. Brian Billick, now being in Baltimore, is why there are rumors of a Brad Johnson to the Ravens deal.

Steve: Did Boston College's Mike Cloud improve his draft day prospects with his Senior Bowl performance? Where do you see him going?

Mel Kiper Jr.: It's a weak running back crop. H hit the hole with authority and had productivity at BC. I think that he's so aggressive as a North-South runner, I see him going in rounds 3-4.

Matt: Do you really think that Sunday will be the last game John Elway ever plays in?

Mel Kiper Jr.: I do. If he ends up with two Super bowl rings and he will have played in the game so many times. In 1983, you had Marino and Elway still playing, with Kelly, Blackledge, O'Brien and Eason done already. You endure so much pain, work so hard to keep going in a long career. I think that a Super Bowl win would be a good ending.

Kiper's on: You left Cade McNown out of your top 50 again. Just thought I'd let you know.

Mel Kiper Jr.: He is actually No. 60 when I did a Top 100, so therefore, right now, he is not included on my Top 50. I have gone back and forth on him, when you look at him on film. It is better off to stay off of him. Some teams will look at the 6-0 1/2 and sidearm delivery. There are others who like his winning attitude as a fighter. There is tremendous debate on him, from second round to undrafted free agent. One team which has a high opinion of him is Cleveland. They would consider him in the second round if they decided Couch did not look good in workouts.

Mitch: Who do you believe are good wide receivers that may go unnoticed and can be picked up in the later rounds?

Mel Kiper Jr.: James Adderly of Bethune-Cookman, who looked good in the Florida-USA all-star game with three big-time catches. He could have been a quality performer in the Big Ten or SEC. Eugene Baker had a great effort in the East-West. He's only 161 pounds, tremendously productive at Kent and could surface as an overlooked guy in the draft who could make a roster. Sean Moray from Brown and Cory Hill of Colgate could be surprising kids in later rounds or unsigned free agent. Chris Berman would be happy to see Moray in the NFL...from Brown. Martay Jenkins of Nebraska-Omaha could be a late pick of note as well.

Mike: Now that Wannstedt is out in Chicago, it seems that Mark Hatley will be ultimately in charge of personnel decisions. What do you think about him as an evaluator of talent?

Mel Kiper Jr.: The jury is still out. They stayed in the first round to take Curtis Enis and I thought they should have traded down. Parish, Kreutz and Mayes were good picks. I put a lot more value in the picks in rounds 4-7 than some teams do, so the Bears could have traded down and stockpiled some.

Dango: Who do you like more: Cecil Collins or Kevin Faulk?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Collins has a little more upside potential. I rate them close, Collins 37, Faulk 49. Faulk has that outside burst of speed and can turn the corner, a home run hitter at times. He can bust it up aggressively. Can he be a full-time back or a situational back, or a good return man? I'd say second rounder and he could be very versatile. If Collins can put the off-the-field concerns behind him, he would be the third best RB. Those off-field concerns will determine how far down the draft board he falls.

Joe: With Peter Warrick staying in school, who do you feel is the best wide receiver in the draft?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Torry Holt is my top receiver, followed by Troy Edwards, David Boston, Peerless Price and D'Wayne Bates. For projection purposes, I have Holt going No. 10 to Baltimore if the Ravens don't trade for Brad Johnson. I have Edwards No. 12 to New Orleans, Boston to Seattle at No. 17 and Price to Dallas at No. 21.

Jon: Has there been any talk about the Redskins moving up to take Champ Bailey or Ricky Williams?

Mel Kiper Jr.: No. There is a chance they can luck out and see Bailey slide to No. 5. They would love to get a great versatile player. Right now I have Bailey going No. 3 to Cincinnati. If Bailey is not there, James at No. 5. I see them taking LJ Shelton at 11, the OT from Eastern Michigan. Remember, the Redskins have an extra first round pick from the Sean Gilbert trade, the No. 5 overall pick.

UNCFan: Any Division I-AA player's draft stock rising?

Mel Kiper Jr.: How about small college players moving up: Kevin Daft, QB, Cal Davis; Jerry Azumah, RB, New Hampshire; James Adderly, WR, Bethune-Cookman, Wes Terrell, TE, Cal Davis; Aaron Smith, DE, Northern Colorado; Robert Daniel, DE, Northwestern State (La.); Cletidus Hunt, DT, Kentucky State. How's that?

Eddie: What do you think of Montae Reagor?

Mel Kiper Jr.: I dropped him out of my Top 50. Did not look tremendously impressive at postseason all-star game, did not show the quickness he showed while at Texas Tech.

Vikinguy: Do you see the Vikings taking Jared DeVries with the No. 29 pick to give John Randle some pass rushing help?

Mel Kiper Jr.: DeVries was banged up this year and did not have a particularly great season. I see him as a second or third round pick at best.

HawkeyeFan: Rate your defensive linemen?

Mel Kiper Jr.: 1. Anthony McFarland of LSU, 2. Ebenezer Ekuban of North Carolina, 3. Patrick Kerney, Virginia, 4. Larry Smith, Florida State, 5. Robert Daniel, Northwestern State (La.), 6. Lamar King, Saginaw Valley State, 7. Mike Rucker, Nebraska, 8. Jared DeVries, Iowa, 9. Antonio Cochran, Georgia, 10. Aaron Smith, Northern Colorado.

Tenpoint25: What veteran QB do you think the Browns will take in the expansion draft?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Glenn Foley perhaps.

Terry: Should Oklahoma running back Demond Parker have come out early?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Parker should have stayed in school. It would have been beneficial. The thing which will help him is that this is not a great year for RB. I only have four RB in my Top 60, so that helps a junior like that, or even Sedrick Irvin. He is considered about a fourth rounder right now.

Sergio: Who do you think the 49ers will get with their first pick?

Mel Kiper Jr.: I project Solomon Page, OT of West Virginia. They need help at CB but they took McQuarters last year. I don't think much in that position will be left because they don't have a second round pick and there is a dropoff after the first bunch of OT. They traded their second-round pick for Jamie Brown, the OT acquired from Denver.

Dave Rubinson: As great as the Super Bowl might be, don't you think that it would have been significantly better with a more exciting team than the Broncos? Like the Jets perhaps.

Mel Kiper Jr.: No. I think the two best teams are there. Minnesota, if it was the best team, would have been there. The Jets did not hold on to a 10-0 lead. Atlanta is not a fluke, beating the Vikings in Minnesota. The Falcons and Broncos are both 16-2. The intrigue of Elway, Reeves, Shanahan, and Denver trying to repeat, the Cinderella trying to upset the team trying to repeat, there are enough good storylines. I think more people are disappointed Minnesota is not there than the Jets.

Sweets: What's up with the Buckeyes, especially Dee Miller and Joe Montgomery? Also, why do you have Antoine Winfield's stock dropping? He only won the Thorpe Award as the nation's premier DB this past season!

Mel Kiper Jr.: Winfield drops because other juniors have moved up, and that affects where some players go. He's 5-8 1/2 and other players move up. I have him rated the No. 42 best player in the draft, and he's behind CB Fred Vinson of Vandy. Miller is underrated, a tremendous route runner who may drop into the third round. He's a clutch performer who could be a third-round steal the way Antonio Freeman was out of Virginia Tech for the Packers. Montgomery has moved up with his stellar performance in the East-West shrine, from 6-7 round to fourth round early.

Robby: Who do you feel the Lions will take with their first-round selection?

Mel Kiper Jr.: They can go two directions, DE or OLB. I am giving them both in Jevon Kearse and if you can creatively use him, you can maximize his ability. He's skilled and could play LB but his natural pass rush skills could make him a DE.

Monsterman: Rate the top safeties in this year's draft! Do you think Denver will opt for one of them with their first-round choice?

Mel Kiper Jr.: I do. I have the Broncos taking Clemson's Antawn Edwards. I know they are high on Eric Brown from last year's draft. A bonus with Edwards is he could be an option at CB. He did a great job against Holt before hurting his hamstring. After Edwards, I still have Poindexter as the No. 2 safety, followed Marquis Smith of California. An underrated safety is Parish Johnson, a 6-foot-2, 210-pounder from Miami-Ohio. Remember, Blaine Bishop of Ball State was a seventh round pick. Johnson can surprise a lot of people.

I think Couch will go number one and Williams number two.

TroyK: What is up with Dre' Bly? Has anyone suffered more for the decision to return to school last year than he has?

Mel Kiper Jr.: I have him going in rounds 2-3. Ken Swilling of Georgia Tech years ago was the kid who went from first round to seventh round by staying one year to long, probably the player who suffered the most.

Dango: Any underrated underclassmen we haven't heard about?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Damien Woody, C, Boston College; Brian Smith, LB, UAB; Leroy Collins, RB, Louisville; and because Demetrius Underwood of Michigan State figures to drop down because of injury, he could be a good third-round pick.

Brownsfan: How do you rate the TE's in this draft? Who will be the better pro, Tuman from Michigan or French from Ole Miss (or is there a dark horse out there that has caught your eye)?

Mel Kiper Jr.: French is the only TE I have in the Top 60. Right now I would go French, Larry Brown of Georgia, Jimmy Kleinsasser and then Jerame Tuman in that order.

NYG Fan: Any truth to the rumor that Detroit may be willing to trade Herman Moore? I'm sure the Giants would love to have him.

Mel Kiper Jr.: No, why would you want to trade your best offensive player? That's right, I think Herman Moore is the Lions' top offensive player, with Barry Sanders No. 2.

Jim: Are the Giants thinking QB? If so, who, when, and why? I think one may slide through to them. What do you think of Mike Cherry?

Mel Kiper Jr.: I have them projected to take Boston College OL Doug Brzezinski. They face the likes of Leon Lett, Eric Swann, Stubblefield, Wilkinson, etc. You need a solid guard and remember they considered taking Alan Faneca last year before taking Shaun Williams.

Aaron Martell: Do you think it was a big mistake for Andy Katzenmoyer to skip his final year of football? And who do you think is key for the Packers to pick up in the draft?

Mel Kiper Jr.: No, Katzenmoyer would have been in a similar situation next year in the mid-first round. I project him currently as the No. 16 pick to the Tennessee Titans.

TroyK: Ron Wolf, Mike Holmgren -- who will miss whom most?

Mel Kiper Jr.: They won't miss Wolf because he is still there. They will miss John Dorsey, a great evaluator who joined the Seahawks as Director of Player Personnel.

Eddie: Here's an interesting question. Now that teams realize how important special teams are, do you think there are some athletes out there that don't rank well at their respective positions, but have the talent to return kicks/punts and will make them more lucrative to the draft lords? Anyone in mind?

Mel Kiper Jr.: They are all interesting questions! I think a good example is LaDouphuyous McCalla, CB from Rice, who is 5-8, a proven playmaker in the secondary and a sure-handed punt returner and his special teams skills will help him big time. Another returner is Gerald Neasman of Kansas State. Remember how valuable Tim Dwight turned out to be. Travis McGriff of Florida can be helped by his punt return skills. Aaron Stecker, RB, Western Illinois and Georgia Tech WR Charlie Rogers could be helped, just to name a few.

Rex: What's your prediction for the Super Bowl?

Mel Kiper Jr.: In case you missed it earlier, Denver 27, Atlanta 24.

Travis: Who will the Colts draft?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Right now I project the Colts taking LB Chris Claiborne of USC, the Butkus Award winner. Opponents sliced through the Colts defense for too much real estate last season. Claiborne is a dynamic talent.

Mark: Some Bills info please!

Mel Kiper Jr.: I project the Bills to take Georgia OL Matt Stinchcomb with the No. 23 overall pick. It is hard to say he will last that long, but for the moment, that's who I have slotted there. He would certainly solidify a need area for Buffalo.

Charles: What direction do you see the Cowboys going in the draft? I think the Cowboys need a receiver the most.

Mel Kiper Jr.: Some people are critical for the Cowboys passing on Randy Moss. I believe they will look for another WR first, with my current projection of Peerless Price from Tennessee.

VanEarl: What about Akili Smith, how does he stack up to Tim Couch?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Smith has a tremendous arm and great athletic ability. I see him going in the Top 10, likely to the Bears at No. 7 overall. Chicago can use a fresh start at QB.

Skippy: I recently read that Cincinnati is considering taking a QB instead of corner back with their first pick. What do you think the chances are of Cincy ending up with Cade McNown (the best QB in the draft)?

Mel Kiper Jr.: I totally disagree with your assessment of McNown. If the Bengals were to take a QB at No. 3, it would be either McNabb or Smith. Right now, I project the Bengals taking Champ Bailey, the versatile star from Georgia.

Tenpoint25: What area do you feel the Browns will go to at the end of the first round?

Mel Kiper Jr.: I feel a lot depends on what they do in the expansion draft.

Todd1853: Heard anything else on the speculation of the Bucs picking up Jeff Blake from the Bengals?

Mel Kiper Jr.: I feel the Bucs will try to improve the position by taking Daunte Culpepper of Central Florida, a tremendous athlete who will need some work. He can get it as Trent Dilfer's backup for a year or two, much like Steve McNair learned with the Oilers before given the starting job.

Scirk: Do you have a opinion on Rob Konrad as a running back?

Mel Kiper Jr.: I currently rate Rob Konrad No. 43 on my draft board. The lack of a solid running back corps doesn't hurt him, even at FB. He can also catch the ball out of the backfield if called upon.

Jersey jim: Any info on Wayne McGarity?

Mel Kiper Jr.: He won't be the first Longhorn to go! The former RB battled back from serious injuries. At the Hula Bowl, he showcased good speed and sure hands. I am not sure if he will go late or try to make a team as an undrafted free agent. He has a shot to stick on someone's roster.

Bucky: Will the Packers take a CB in the first round? Who?

Mel Kiper Jr.: I have them taking UCLA OT Kris Farris if he slips down that far. Brett Favre could use some help with protection and the 6-8, 320-pound plus Farris is a top-flight pass blocker.

Greg: How about Jacoby Rhinehart?

Mel Kiper Jr.: He did help himself at the Senior Bowl by displaying excellent ball reaction.

John Bayne: Do you like anybody coming out of Texas A&M?

Mel Kiper Jr.: I do not have any Aggies currently ranked in my Top 60, though I give credit for R. C. Slocum doing a good job this season, especially against Kansas State.

Howie Long: How about the Raiders?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Hi Howie! I have the Raiders taking another DL, Ebenezer Ekuban of North Carolina. The Raiders can use a complete DE who can hold up effectively against the run.

Buchsbaum: Does Jax go defense this year?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Right now I think so. I have penned in Patrick Kerney of Virginia, an athletic linemen who used to play lacrosse at Virginia. Tom Coughlin loves smart, dedicated football players.

Big Red: Any good punters or kickers that might get drafted and how high?

Mel Kiper Jr.: I would say the top kicker is Martin Grammatica of Kansas State, probably a third-round pick.

Buzz: What are the Seahawks needs? Please rank them.

Mel Kiper Jr.: Based on my projections, I currently have the Seahawks leaning towards another Ohio State WR to go with Joey Galloway, namely David Boston. Mike Holmgren then could open up the offense more.

Stan: How about the three main PSU guys -- Scioli, Wedderburn, and the TE Brown?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Wedderburn is in my Top 40. I feel Brown is a good TE prospect but not among my top TE. Rufus French of Mississippi rates No. 1, and he is the only TE I have in the Top 50.

Scioli is a hustler who goes all out.

Jedstew: Who will the Saints pick in the first round?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Mike Ditka's offense can use a big shot in the arm, which is why I currently have them taking Louisiana Tech WR Troy Edwards, the nation's most productive receiver. Just ask Nebraska about him!

MegaHeel: How about L.C. Stevens? Did he move into the first round after the Senior Bowl?

Mel Kiper Jr.: Big wideouts are definitely in demand, and that's why a developing talent like Stevens could move up. Right now, no, I don't have him in the first two rounds.

Thank you for all of your questions. For the record, my typist told me there were over 2800 questions, which is why some people didn't get their questions posted. I tried to answer as many different questions about teams in the hour and a half. I plan on doing a post-combine chat on February 26th at 2 p.m. ET.

For more info on my books, call me at 1-800-696-4558. See you next time. And you can find my current Top 50 prospects on ESPN.com in the NFL area under other features. Thanks again and enjoy the game Sunday.


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