Parity makes it harder to designate sleepers.
Last season, 15 teams won between seven and nine games. Four more won 10, and two won six. That leaves only 11 teams on the extremes -- five that won 11 or more and six who won five or fewer.
With so many teams within one or two plays of being 8-8, the dramatic rises of a franchise are so much more difficult. Go back to a year ago, only four teams improved by four games or more. Two of the four, Buffalo and Carolina, made five- and six-game improvements, respectively.
Now, worst to first or first to worst might only be a two-game swing. The Jets, for example, won the AFC East with a 9-7 record, but two other teams were 9-7 and the fourth place team was 8-8.
The challenge of forecasting this season is trying to find those teams in the middle of the pack with the ability to jump four games. The Titans and Colts were last year's four-game movers, and they share a common achievement. They improved bad defenses. The Titans improved the league's worst pass defense and trimmed their points against by five per game. The Colts shaved 12 points a game off the league's worst defense in 2001 and won 10 games.
So, who are this year's surprise teams?
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| Holmes and the offense are counting on more production from the defense this year. |
Calling the St. Louis Rams a surprise team would be inaccurate. They went to the Super Bowl two years ago and injuries at the quarterback position killed their offense in the first half of last season. With one of the league's easiest schedules, the Rams should improve by four to six games over their 7-9 season as long as they keep Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger healthy. But that's no surprise.
Forget about four-game improvements from the Lions, Texans, Cowboys and Cardinals from the lower echelon of the league. The Lions will be better under Steve Mariucci and they aren't in the toughest division. Still, the Lions' best chance is to improve by three games. What hurts the Texans and Cardinals is they are in divisions in which two or three teams are significantly better although the Texans have a chance to pass Jacksonville for third place.
The Bears aren't as bad as their 4-12 record indicated last year, but they may struggle to get to eight wins because of problems on their offense.
The Kansas City Chiefs are the team to watch. They have all the signs of a team ready to make the next jump. Dick Vermeil is in the third year of his three-year rebuilding project. In Vermeil's third year with the Rams, his squad jumped from four to 13 wins and won a Super Bowl. Like the Colts and Titans, the Chiefs have the chance to significantly improve their defense. Even though their cornerbacks have been struggling in coverage during the preseason, the Chiefs front seven is much better. Their defensive line is now formidable.
Eric Hicks and Vonnie Holliday are dangerous rushing from defensive end. Ryan Sims, in his second season, should be a presence in the middle of the defense. By signing outside linebacker Shawn Barber, the Chiefs added one of the league's best underneath coverage specialists along with getting a playmaker.
And the Chiefs can score points.
They averaged a league high 29.1 points a game and every one of the skilled players are returning. Trent Green is dishing off completions like an NBA all-star point guard. He has plenty of options with tight end Tony Gonzalez and four interesting wide receivers -- Eddie Kennison, Johnnie Morton, Marc Boerigter and Dante Hall. Priest Holmes is back at full strength. Tony Richardson is still a Pro Bowl caliber fullback. And Green plays behind the best offensive line in football from last season. All the Chiefs have to do is cut five or six points a game off their defensive stats. They gave up 24.9 points a game. If they get into the 19-point range, they could vault from eight wins to 11 or so.
Here are a few other teams to watch:
Buffalo Bills: Except for the Patriots, who added former Bears Ted Washington and Rosevelt Colvin, the Bills did the best job this offseason of improving a front defensive seven. Putting Sam Adams next to Pat Williams makes the Bills a tough team to run against. Last year they ranked 29th, giving up 132.6 yards a game. Giving London Fletcher two outside linebackers as good as Takeo Spikes and Jeff Posey should improve the team's ability to make big stops and force turnovers. The problem facing the Bills is how much more they can improve. They jumped five games last year by bringing in Drew Bledsoe to run the offense. To get into the 9-11 win area, the Bills have to step over teams such as Miami and New England and improve their 2-4 division record. Defensively, the Bills should improve. Offensively, they won't be as explosive because they couldn't afford to fix the defense and keep wide receiver Peerless Price. They will have to make up the difference for Price with two possession receivers -- Bobby Shaw and Josh Reed.
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| Hasselbeck |
Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks averaged 35 points a game during the final six weeks of the season, and Matt Hasselbeck came to camp with a swagger. He should. When you have a three-receiver set of Koren Robinson, Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram and a potential 100-yard a game rusher in Shaun Alexander, you should walk with confidence. Once Walter Jones ends his holdout -- it better end next week -- Hasselbeck will be playing behind the best offensive line in franchise history. Jones is a Pro Bowler at left tackle, and Chris Terry has sealed off the right side after being claimed off waivers from the Carolina Panthers. Steve Hutchison is back from injury and could be a potential Pro Bowl left guard. What also helps the Seahawks is an easy schedule. They play 10 games against teams with losing records. The good news on defense is that they have the best trio of cornerbacks in the NFC West -- Shawn Springs, Ken Lucas and rookie Marcus Trufant. Their downfall again could be their run defense. They lost their best run-stopper this week when defensive tackle Chad Eaton went on injured reserve. They must rely on John Randle and Norman Hand to hold down the middle of their defense.
Minnesota Vikings: Somebody from the bottom of the worst division should make a jump. The Vikings have a better chance than the Bears because of their offense. Quarterback Daunte Culpepper is on a mission not to throw interceptions after throwing 23 picks last season. Randy Moss added 10 pounds of muscle and is still the game's most dangerous deep threat. But the Vikings biggest improvement is at the line of scrimmage. The offensive line is now solid with Bryant McKinnie and Mike Rosenthal at tackle and Matt Birk at center. They have enough options at running back to get by. It can be argued that the Vikings now have perhaps the best defensive lines in the division. Chris Hovan should get Pro Bowl raves at defensive tackle, and Fred Robbins takes from pressure off of him at nose tackle. Kevin Williams and Kenny Mixon are dangerous defensive ends. Greg Biekert is a smart middle linebacker and Chris Claiborne is a playmaker at outside linebacker. The Vikings won six games last year and went 4-2 in the NFC North. They need to split their games against the Packers and maybe sweep the Bears and Lions to make that jump, but they have a chance.
Cincinnati Bengals: No, Marvin Lewis isn't taking the Bengals to the playoffs. But he has an interesting opportunity. The Browns may be a little down from their 9-7 mark last season because of their defense. The Ravens have a formidable defense, but it will take the season to improve their offense while they sort out the quarterback decision. But the Bengals aren't a two-win team. They have good receivers, Chad Johnson, Peter Warrick and Kelley Washington. They have one of the game's best running backs, Corey Dillon. And Lewis has done everything right this season. He talked free agents into signing with the Bengals. He drafted well. Like the Panthers a year ago, the Bengals have the best chance from the league's worst to jump four-to-six games.
John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.
