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| Thursday, August 31 Updated: September 1, 9:51 AM ET Take a run (not a pass) on rookie debuts By Russell S. Baxter Special to ESPN.com |
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As we kick off the NFL's 81st season, it's always fun to look at what rookies will make an impact. We've seen some great debut seasons in recent years, including WR Randy Moss (Vikings) and CB Charles Woodson (Raiders) in 1998, and RB Edgerrin James (Colts) and DE Jevon Kearse (Titans) in '99. All four went to the Pro Bowl as rookies, and Moss and Woodson repeated that feat last season.
But the focus here will be on the offensive side of the ball, especially at running back, where there were five backs taken in the first round of April's draft. Two of those performers -- Arizona's Thomas Jones and the Giants' Ron Dayne -- will start this Sunday, ironically against each other, while it may only be a matter of time before we see Baltimore's Jamal Lewis and Seattle's Shaun Alexander on an extended basis (St. Louis' Trung Canidate, the last player selected in the first round, is playing behind some guy named Marshall Faulk). True, a lot has been made of the influx of talent at wide receiver in the league, and we'll see our share of big plays from first-rounders such as Peter Warrick (Bengals) and Plaxico Burress (Steelers), as well as Travis Taylor (Ravens), Sylvester Morris (Chiefs) and R. Jay Soward (Jaguars). But over the course of league history, it's been rookie running backs that -- at least statistically -- have made the bigger impact than rookie wideouts. It's interesting to note that a total of 37 players have rushed for 1,000 or more yards during their rookie season, including the aforementioned James and Denver's Olandis Gary a year ago. Conversely, only a dozen rookies have totaled 1,000 or more yards receiving, and only once in NFL history (1986) has there been a pair of 1,000-yard rookie receivers in the same season.
Of course, there's already that ridiculous talk of the "Heisman jinx" when it comes to Dayne, who hopes to finally give Jim Fassel a legitimate workhorse runner. Contrary to some opinions, not all former Heisman Trophy winners have been NFL flops. In fact, running back has been one position where former honorees have thrived, especially in their first year out of the gate as seven former winners ran for at least 1,000 yards during their rookie campaigns.
Heisman winners have been pretty good for the long haul, as well, as six of the league's Top 20 rushers of all time (Sanders, Dorsett, Marcus Allen, O.J. Simpson, Campbell and Herschel Walker) were Heisman Trophy winners. Sure, there are many factors that come into play regarding runners and pass-catchers. Wide receivers are at the mercy of quarterbacks that have to be accurate enough to get them the football, and get it to them on a regular basis. That's why Moss' 1998 debut was so impressive. Running backs get so many more opportunities to touch the football. Still, it's interesting to note that in this era of throwing the ball downfield -- the NFL set records in '99 for 1,000-yard receivers (26) and 100-yard receiving games (187) -- that, more often than not, you can expect more of an immediate impact from rookie running backs than receivers.
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