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Wednesday, November 10
Updated: November 11, 6:05 PM ET
 
War Room: Dolphins at Bills

The War Room

Editor's note: This is a sneak peek at an in-depth NFL game preview from The War Room, an ESPN.com associate partner. The rest of the War Room previews are available to ESPN.com Insiders. Click here to sign up.

Miami offense vs. Buffalo defense
The Dolphins are in the top-third of the league in rushing attempts, but Miami is still only running for an average of 99.1 yards per game. Without Dan Marino behind center, posing a threat to throw the ball on every down, teams have been able to concentrate on stopping the Dolphins' running game.

DOLPHINS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 19
Pass 11
Tot. Yds. 13
Scoring 8
Int's allowed 7
Sacks allowed 21
BILLS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 7
vs. Pass 5
Total yds. allowed 6
# of Ints. 7
# of Sacks 16
Turnover differential -7

The Bills, who are allowing just 84.0 yards per game on the ground, have had a tough time the past couple of weeks defending the off-tackle run because their defensive ends and outside linebackers have not been able to hold up at the line of scrimmage.

Buffalo is going to play in a more run-oriented defensive scheme Sunday that will feature its aggressive safeties, Henry Jones and Kurt Schulz, playing closer to the line of scrimmage to take away the Dolphins' cutback lanes. This is going to put enormous pressure on Bills cornerbacks Thomas Smith and Ken Irvin on first and second downs in base formation as man-to-man cover corners.

Smith will likely get most of the help over the top off of play-action and early-down passing plays, which means that Irvin will be left on an island against wide receiver O.J. McDuffie. Irvin will play softer coverage than normal, even though McDuffie is a productive possession receiver who does a lot of damage underneath.

Irvin will work to stay outside of McDuffie, forcing him to the inside where he will have help on the quick slant and crossing routes from the linebacker dropping into coverage. The important thing for the Bills is for Irvin to not get beat deep, because he will not have any help from the safeties on first and second downs.

Quarterback Damon Huard continues to mature as the Dolphins' starter, but he is still not capable of winning a game on his own. What Huard does best is take care of the ball and limit the offense's mistakes and turnovers. Huard has taken 13 sacks in his three starts, which is not necessarily a bad statistic for Miami. Huard has been instructed by Jimmy Johnson not to force the ball into coverage and not to try to make too many things happen on offense.

Miami is a team that is centered around a dominant defense, and Johnson knows that if the offense is conducive to the field-position game and limits the turnovers, that the defense will put the team in position to win.

Buffalo offense vs. Miami defense
The Bills have been able to establish a decent running game for most of the season when they dedicate themselves to doing so, but this team has been schizophrenic in its play-calling for most of the season. When looking back at their first meeting with the Dolphins on a Monday night, the Bills made some clear adjustments at halftime to completely abandon the running game. The Dolphins' scheme against Buffalo in that contest was extremely aggressive, challenging the Bills to beat them in the air.

BILLS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 3
Pass 15
Tot. Yds. 10
Scoring 14
Int's allowed 11
Sacks allowed 17
DOLPHINS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 2
vs. Pass 9
Total yds. allowed 3
# of Ints. 11
# of Sacks 22
Turnover differential -3

Miami has held opponents to 80.0 yards on the ground this season, stifling teams with great overall speed and a scheme that gives the Dolphins numbers up front. Miami, on just about every down against a pro-formation with less than four receivers, walks strong safety Shawn Wooden or Calvin Jackson up close to the line of scrimmage. There, Wooden or Jackson key on the tight end and respond to their movement. If the tight end stays in to block, Miami has a "4-4" look on defense to stop the run. If the tight end releases, the strong safety is responsible for covering him in man-to-man coverage.

A couple of times in the last game, tight end Jay Riemersma broke loose for big catches because the strong safety failed to key on him and got caught peeking on the play-action pass.

The only time Buffalo had real success against the Dolphins defense in the last contest was when they emptied the backfield and ran five receivers out into routes. What this does is neutralize the speed on Miami's defense because the Dolphins are only allowed to rush four men. Likewise, this provides Buffalo with sufficient pass protection, blocking four down lineman with five offensive lineman. With just a four-man rush, Flutie is the recipient of wider passing lanes and more time to make his reads in the pocket.

Flutie has a strong arm and is an accurate passer if he has a window to throw the ball. He gets into trouble when teams get a good pass rush up the middle and force him to throw behind the massive bodies on the offensive line.

Expect to see a lot of nickel personnel on Sunday when the Bills are on offense. Miami will gamble at times, leaving receivers open off the line of scrimmage in order to get a pass rush, but for the most part, Buffalo will dictate the coverage when they use four- and five-receiver sets. Also, key on Riemersma, who will be put in motion before the snap of the ball in order to influence where Miami's strong safety lines up on the field and also to give Riemersma a better chance of breaking free off the line of scrimmage to get into his route.

Special teams
There is no better field goal kicker in the business right now than Olindo Mare. Mare had one blocked last Sunday night, but it was a breakdown in blocking up front, not a fault of his. The Dolphins kicker is 26-for-29 in field goals on the season with a long of 54 yards.

NFL RANK
Category MIA BUF
Punt return avg. 5 6
Kickoff return avg. 2 28
Opp. punt return avg. 27 4
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 2 28
Time of possession 1 8

The biggest concern for Miami's special teams unit is punter Tom Hutton, who is averaging just 41.8 yards per punt and has been extremely erratic this season. The return units have been brilliant, with Nate Jacquet leading the league with a 17.5-yard per punt return average, and Brock Marion averaging 27.3 yards per kickoff return.

Steve Christie is 16-for-20 on field-goal attempts, and this is the time of the year when he becomes more and more valuable because of his ability to handle the weather in Buffalo. Kevin Williams has done a fine job of handling the punt-return duties, averaging 11.1 yards per return without a fumble.

Key matchups

  • Bills OT John Fina vs. Dolphins DE Jason Taylor
    This should make for an interesting and crucial matchup on the end. Fina has been battling some nicks all season, but he has been playing with great consistency. He matches up well with Taylor because he is more of a finesse pass blocker and shows some crafty veteran moves. Taylor is going to play a critical part in the Dolphins' pass rush because he not only has to get upfield to break down the pocket, but he also needs to keep Flutie contained inside the pocket. This is a matchup of pure speed and quickness that should provide some fireworks before the contest is through.

  • Dolphins C Tim Ruddy vs. Bills NT Ted Washington
    Ruddy draws the unenviable task of lining head up with Washington on Sunday. The trouble for Ruddy is that he gives up almost an inch and 45 pounds to Washington. Washington is probably going to draw a lot of double teams because of the size differential, which will open up a lot of blitzing lanes for Buffalo's inside linebackers to exploit in pass rush as well as against the run.

  • Dolphins WR Tony Martin vs. Bills CB Thomas Smith
    Martin has not been as productive statistically as originally hoped for, but his mere presence has given the Dolphins offense a lot more options. He has done an excellent job of stretching the field and drawing double teams, which opens up room underneath for the rest of Miami's receivers to work. Smith is going to get some help behind him from the safety position, but he needs to take Martin out of the play on the line of scrimmage if the Bills are going to be able to utilize their full personnel in coverage.

    The Dolphins will win if ...

  • Defensive tackles Daryl Gardener and Tim Bowens create blitzing lanes for middle linebacker Zach Thomas in the middle of the line. The Dolphins are going to work to establish a pass rush in the middle of the line. Flutie has had severe trouble this season because teams have been rushing him up the middle and taking away his throwing lanes and vision. The Dolphins defensive tackles do an excellent job of taking up space in the middle of the line of scrimmage, giving Thomas a clear lane to attack the quarterback. If Thomas breaks free, he will not only hurry Flutie's throw, but he will interrupt his vision and likely force Flutie into some errant throws.

  • They run the ball right at Bills defensive ends Phil Hansen and Bruce Smith. Smith and Hansen have been exposed the past few weeks when teams run at them. They have not been stacking well at the line of scrimmage, and teams have been wearing down the veteran defensive ends. By running at them and wearing them down on first and second downs, the Dolphins will create more time on third down for Huard to sit in the pocket and make his reads.

  • Tight end Troy Drayton gets more involved in the offense. Drayton has shown an excellent ability to get off the line of scrimmage and find seams. The Dolphins have been concentrating almost solely on their wideouts in the passing game, and have been ignoring some of the production that could be taken advantage of in the middle. As the Bills look to blitz the inexperienced quarterback with frequency, room should open up underneath for Drayton to find a crease and get good position as a receiver underneath.

    The Bills will win if...

  • They wear down Miami's ferocious front seven by pounding the ball inside the tackles. Buffalo is going to have some trouble up front against the speed of Miami's front seven. The best way to neutralize speed is to wear the defense down running the football. The Bills' running game has shown some life the past couple of weeks, and will need to be more productive with more consistency if the Bills are able to move the ball offensively.

  • They take advantage of room in the deep middle of Miami's defense. The Dolphins put pressure on the corners to guard the entire outside of the field. Cornerbacks Sam Madison and Terrell Buckley play man-to-man coverage and get little help on the outside. By playing so aggressively up front, the Dolphins leave a lot of room open in the middle in the deep third of the field. With Moulds back healthy in the lineup, Buffalo is going to have to open up the offense and spread the field vertically to take advantage of the room up top.

  • The defense gets better help from outside linebackers Gabe Northern and Sam Rogers against the run. Teams have been able to run off-tackle against the Bills with little difficulty the past three weeks. Northern and Rogers have done a poor job of stacking at the point of attack, which has allowed teams to run downhill with great success. Northern and Rogers need to come up harder against the run and play with better leverage if the Bills are going to stop the Dolphins from sustaining drives by running the football.

    The War Room edge
    This AFC East clash is a must win for the Bills. Miami is 7-1, while the Bills are 6-3, meaning Buffalo cannot afford to lose another game at home if it's going to compete for at least a wild-card berth in the AFC. The Bills pulled off a huge upset last week in Washington, where they outscored the Redskins with an unexpected and explosive offensive performance.

    The Dolphins, however, are playing some of the best defense in the NFL, coming off a 17-0 shutout of the Titans last Sunday night. This is going to be a physical game between two teams with bad blood. The Dolphins have enough offensive firepower to put some points up early, but the Bills have the "Flutie factor." Miami has the better football team at this point in the season, but the Bills pull this one out at Orchard Park, N.Y., because of solid veteran play and a relentless crowd as the 12th man.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com




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