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| Wednesday, November 10 Updated: November 11, 6:05 PM ET War Room: Dolphins at Bills The War Room |
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Editor's note: This is a sneak peek at an in-depth NFL game preview from The War Room, an ESPN.com associate partner. The rest of the War Room previews are available to ESPN.com Insiders. Click here to sign up.
Miami offense vs. Buffalo defense
The Bills, who are allowing just 84.0 yards per game on the ground, have had a tough time the past couple of weeks defending the off-tackle run because their defensive ends and outside linebackers have not been able to hold up at the line of scrimmage. Buffalo is going to play in a more run-oriented defensive scheme Sunday that will feature its aggressive safeties, Henry Jones and Kurt Schulz, playing closer to the line of scrimmage to take away the Dolphins' cutback lanes. This is going to put enormous pressure on Bills cornerbacks Thomas Smith and Ken Irvin on first and second downs in base formation as man-to-man cover corners. Smith will likely get most of the help over the top off of play-action and early-down passing plays, which means that Irvin will be left on an island against wide receiver O.J. McDuffie. Irvin will play softer coverage than normal, even though McDuffie is a productive possession receiver who does a lot of damage underneath. Irvin will work to stay outside of McDuffie, forcing him to the inside where he will have help on the quick slant and crossing routes from the linebacker dropping into coverage. The important thing for the Bills is for Irvin to not get beat deep, because he will not have any help from the safeties on first and second downs. Quarterback Damon Huard continues to mature as the Dolphins' starter, but he is still not capable of winning a game on his own. What Huard does best is take care of the ball and limit the offense's mistakes and turnovers. Huard has taken 13 sacks in his three starts, which is not necessarily a bad statistic for Miami. Huard has been instructed by Jimmy Johnson not to force the ball into coverage and not to try to make too many things happen on offense. Miami is a team that is centered around a dominant defense, and Johnson knows that if the offense is conducive to the field-position game and limits the turnovers, that the defense will put the team in position to win.
Buffalo offense vs. Miami defense
Miami has held opponents to 80.0 yards on the ground this season, stifling teams with great overall speed and a scheme that gives the Dolphins numbers up front. Miami, on just about every down against a pro-formation with less than four receivers, walks strong safety Shawn Wooden or Calvin Jackson up close to the line of scrimmage. There, Wooden or Jackson key on the tight end and respond to their movement. If the tight end stays in to block, Miami has a "4-4" look on defense to stop the run. If the tight end releases, the strong safety is responsible for covering him in man-to-man coverage. A couple of times in the last game, tight end Jay Riemersma broke loose for big catches because the strong safety failed to key on him and got caught peeking on the play-action pass. The only time Buffalo had real success against the Dolphins defense in the last contest was when they emptied the backfield and ran five receivers out into routes. What this does is neutralize the speed on Miami's defense because the Dolphins are only allowed to rush four men. Likewise, this provides Buffalo with sufficient pass protection, blocking four down lineman with five offensive lineman. With just a four-man rush, Flutie is the recipient of wider passing lanes and more time to make his reads in the pocket. Flutie has a strong arm and is an accurate passer if he has a window to throw the ball. He gets into trouble when teams get a good pass rush up the middle and force him to throw behind the massive bodies on the offensive line. Expect to see a lot of nickel personnel on Sunday when the Bills are on offense. Miami will gamble at times, leaving receivers open off the line of scrimmage in order to get a pass rush, but for the most part, Buffalo will dictate the coverage when they use four- and five-receiver sets. Also, key on Riemersma, who will be put in motion before the snap of the ball in order to influence where Miami's strong safety lines up on the field and also to give Riemersma a better chance of breaking free off the line of scrimmage to get into his route.
Special teams
The biggest concern for Miami's special teams unit is punter Tom Hutton, who is averaging just 41.8 yards per punt and has been extremely erratic this season. The return units have been brilliant, with Nate Jacquet leading the league with a 17.5-yard per punt return average, and Brock Marion averaging 27.3 yards per kickoff return. Steve Christie is 16-for-20 on field-goal attempts, and this is the time of the year when he becomes more and more valuable because of his ability to handle the weather in Buffalo. Kevin Williams has done a fine job of handling the punt-return duties, averaging 11.1 yards per return without a fumble.
Key matchups
This should make for an interesting and crucial matchup on the end. Fina has been battling some nicks all season, but he has been playing with great consistency. He matches up well with Taylor because he is more of a finesse pass blocker and shows some crafty veteran moves. Taylor is going to play a critical part in the Dolphins' pass rush because he not only has to get upfield to break down the pocket, but he also needs to keep Flutie contained inside the pocket. This is a matchup of pure speed and quickness that should provide some fireworks before the contest is through.
Ruddy draws the unenviable task of lining head up with Washington on Sunday. The trouble for Ruddy is that he gives up almost an inch and 45 pounds to Washington. Washington is probably going to draw a lot of double teams because of the size differential, which will open up a lot of blitzing lanes for Buffalo's inside linebackers to exploit in pass rush as well as against the run.
Martin has not been as productive statistically as originally hoped for, but his mere presence has given the Dolphins offense a lot more options. He has done an excellent job of stretching the field and drawing double teams, which opens up room underneath for the rest of Miami's receivers to work. Smith is going to get some help behind him from the safety position, but he needs to take Martin out of the play on the line of scrimmage if the Bills are going to be able to utilize their full personnel in coverage.
The Dolphins will win if ...
The Bills will win if...
The War Room edge
The Dolphins, however, are playing some of the best defense in the NFL, coming off a 17-0 shutout of the Titans last Sunday night. This is going to be a physical game between two teams with bad blood. The Dolphins have enough offensive firepower to put some points up early, but the Bills have the "Flutie factor." Miami has the better football team at this point in the season, but the Bills pull this one out at Orchard Park, N.Y., because of solid veteran play and a relentless crowd as the 12th man.
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