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It's not too early to call it: The QB draft class of 2013 is the worst of recent memory. EJ Manuel, the 16th overall pick, and Geno Smith, the second QB off the board at No. 39, have lost their starting gigs in Year 3, and there isn't anything close to a Russell Wilson type among the later picks. What happened? Here are all the gory details.
What We Thought
Give it up for stats: The numbers never liked these guys. EJ Manuel and Geno Smith combined for a 68.6 college QBR, the lowest among the past five classes of Round 1 and 2 QBs. NC State's Mike Glennon was the only other QB drafted before Round 4 -- turns out, the Jets and Bills were reaching into a very shallow talent pool.
College QBR of Round 1 and 2 QBs last five years
Buffalo bought into Manuel's FSU pro-style pedigree, but his 74.5 QBR as a senior (26th in the FBS) foretold an NFL letdown.
What We Saw
A draft class' true identity can't hide after three seasons, and the verdict is in a few months early for this group. No quarterback who entered the league in 2013 is currently starting, and Manuel and Smith have combined for a dismal 40.6 career QBR, well below the other classes since 2011. The Bills averaged 7.5 wins and the Jets six over the 2013 and '14 seasons before looking for new starters in 2015.
Round 1 and 2 QBs through three years in NFL
WVU's spread did not prep Smith for NFL defenses. Since he entered the league, he is the only QB to throw at least 30 picks on fewer than 1,000 attempts.
What We Learned
The Bills and Jets both overreached. Smith failed to handle pressure in the pocket and in the locker room, while Manuel was a below-average game manager (26.9 completion rate on throws 20 or more yards downfield, third lowest among QBs since '13). The best of the class, Glennon, was the third off the board -- and he ended up with Jameis Winston's clipboard.
QBs to start from 2013 class
Rather than reach, the Bucs waited until the third round for Glennon, whose 29-15 TD/INT ratio is No. 14 since '13, despite his facing a blitz on 38.9 percent of dropbacks (an NFL high).