Prime-time Parlay: FPI predictions for the biggest games of NFL Week 1

Aaron Rodgers will attempt to extend his dominance against the Bears on Sunday night. Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY Sports

We did it. We created a parlay. It's all about the best games -- Thursday, Sunday and Monday's prime-time games, and the top 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. Sunday matchups. Straight up picks -- but you gotta hit all five (or in this week's case, all six). And then we calculated how much you'd earn for the parlay, utilizing Westgate's money lines.

Via ESPN's Football Power Index, Prime-time Parlay will tell you the analytics-based predictions for the meetings of greatest national import, offering the smart picks for the games you'll be watching each week. (All NFL point spreads and money lines can be found HERE).

Total payout for Week 1 Prime-time Parlay (selecting all FPI-projected winners in 6 games): $1759.70 (on $100 wager)

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)

Money line: Eagles -120
FPI projection: Eagles win by 5.1 points

Total QBR (and therefore FPI) sees Nick Foles as straight-up average. That's not necessarily a bad thing and maybe that's a shade higher than Vegas' opinion on last year's Super Bowl MVP. The Eagles won their Super Bowl on the foundation of more than a quarterback, and that is still true. -- Seth Walder

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)

Money line: Giants +142
FPI projection: Giants win by 0.4 points

Defense is less predictable than offense, so if there's any unit in this game ripe for regression it is Jacksonville's elite defense. Granted, the Giants' offense was poor last year and Eli Manning is still a below-average quarterback, but at least they get Odell Beckham Jr. back. -- Seth Walder

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX)

Money line: Panthers -150
FPI projection: Panthers win by 4.3 points

Two similar quality teams that are expected to hover in the above-average-but-short-of-greatness range. In this case, home-field advantage is essentially all that separates them. -- Seth Walder

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)

Line: Packers -360
FPI projection: Packers win by 9.6 points

Maybe Matt Nagy will invigorate a Mitchell Trubisky-led offense. Maybe Khalil Mack will team up with Leonard Floyd and make the Bears' defense elite. But FPI likes what it knows. And it knows Aaron Rodgers is a force to be reckoned with. -- Seth Walder

New York Jets at Detroit Lions (Monday, 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Line: Lions -300
FPI projection: Lions win by 8.3 points

FPI doesn't think of Sam Darnold as SAM DARNOLD just yet. In fact, it considers all rookie quarterbacks to be relatively poor, though it's willing to adjust fast if it learns otherwise. That might seem crazy, but there are too many first-round busts -- from EJ Manuel to Blaine Gabbert -- to annoint anyone before they've played. -- Seth Walder

Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders (Monday, 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Line: Rams -210
FPI projection: Rams win by 2.6 points

Even though FPI isn't completely sold on Jared Goff -- the model still holds his rookie season against him a little -- the Rams' collection of stars makes them rightful road favorites, even if FPI is a little less certain of that than Vegas. -- Seth Walder

Final Parlay: Eagles, Giants, Panthers, Packers, Lions, Rams

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