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Tom Brady guides Patriots against Titans in AFC wild-card game

(6) Tennessee Titans at (3) New England Patriots

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 74.8 | Spread: NE -5 (44)

What to watch for: The Patriots were plus-21 in turnover differential during the regular season, which led the NFL and is a point that Titans head coach Mike Vrabel has been stressing this week to his team. New England's defense and special teams haven't created a turnover in each of the past two games, and they are determined to reverse that trend. -- Mike Reiss

Bold prediction: Titans running back Derrick Henry will rush for more than 100 yards and score two touchdowns -- one of which will be on a big play via the screen game. The Patriots utilize a lot of blitzes, which set up perfectly for a well-timed screen pass. Henry will be a major factor in the second half as the Titans milk the clock to protect a late fourth-quarter lead. -- Turron Davenport

Stat to know: Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill averaged 9.6 yards per pass attempt this season, the fifth-highest rate in a season in NFL history (min. 250 attempts). According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Tannehill also had the highest completion percentage above expectation in the NFL. But the Patriots defense forced the lowest completion percentage below expectation in coverage in the NFL.

Key matchup: Henry vs. the Patriots' defensive front seven. This has to be a heavy-volume game for the NFL's rushing champ. Force the Patriots to defend zone schemes and clog cutback lanes versus a back who led the NFL with 2.3 yards after first contact. In short, make New England tackle Henry for four quarters, while setting up Tannehill in the play-action passing game. Read more.

Betting nugget: New England is 18-1 to win the Super Bowl and was as long as 20-1 earlier in the week. Those are the longest odds New England has had to win at any point this decade, and it is the longest odds entering the playoffs that Bill Belichick/Tom Brady have ever had. However, Belichick/Brady are 6-0 ATS at Gillette Stadium against Tannehill, winning each game by at least seven points. Read more.

Officiating nugget: Referee John Hussey's regular-season crew threw the second-fewest flags for defensive pass interference (14) but the third-most for offensive pass interference (11). Hussey's crew also called the second-fewest offensive holding penalties (38).

Davenport's pick: Titans 24, Patriots 20
Reiss' pick: Patriots 20, Titans 17
FPI prediction: NE, 73.0% (by an average of 8.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Titans' Mike Vrabel faces teacher-turned-competitor in playoff debut ... Inside Bill Belichick's resignation as the Jets' coach 20 years ago ... Ranking Tom Brady's top 10 playoff performances ... Patriots players quickly shift mindset with idea of 'Revenge Tour' ... Rare wild-card game a blow to Patriots' Super Bowl hopes