Week 10 NFL score predictions: A guide to best games, fantasy help, more

We're previewing the Week 10 NFL slate with score predictions for each game from our Nation reporters, what to watch for in fantasy, Football Power Index projections from ESPN Stats & Information and much more.

Thursday Night Football result: PIT 52, CAR 21
Teams with byes in Week 10: DEN, MIN, BAL, HOU

Jump to a matchup:


Patriots (7-2) at Titans (4-4): 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Point spread: NE -6.5 | Matchup quality: 67.2 (of 100)

Mike Reiss' pick: The Patriots have 22 touchdowns in 34 red zone trips this season, with their 64.7 TD percentage ranking them 11th in the NFL. And the Titans' D has allowed just seven touchdowns in 22 opponent red zone trips, a 31.8 percentage that ranks the unit as the best in the NFL. So there's a good chance this game will come down to the red zone, and New England coordinator Josh McDaniels, Tom Brady & Co. will be at their creative best. Patriots 27, Titans 17

Turron Davenport's pick: The Titans' offense showed signs of life Monday by scoring 28 points, a season high. The Patriots' defense is giving up 22.4 points per game, and most of the points against (13.3) are coming when the game is out of reach in the second half. If the Titans can reach the end zone early and keep the game close, they'll have a chance. Brady and the Patriots are scoring an average of 30 points per game, while the Tennessee defense is allowing an NFL-best 17.6. Something has to give. Patriots 28, Titans 24

FPI win projection: NE, 62.4 percent. The Titans are the No. 1 scoring defense this season, but do not rank in the top 10 in opponent Total QBR (11th) or defensive efficiency (13th). The Patriots' seventh-ranked offense and fifth-ranked defense, according to FPI, make them a favorite on the road.

What to watch for in fantasy: The Titans have been very good against running backs this season, but the way James White is being utilized by the Patriots still makes him a very interesting case. Read more.

In case you missed it: Patriots CB group has come together in post-Butler era ... Titans' ex-Pats: Beating mystique first priority vs. Brady

Saints (7-1) at Bengals (5-3): 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Point spread: NO -5.5 | Matchup quality: 65.1 (of 100)

Mike Triplett's pick: This has all the makings of a "trap game" or an emotional letdown for the Saints after three consecutive intense matchups. This will actually be the first 1 p.m. Sunday game for New Orleans since Week 3, and it's outdoors in chilly weather against an unfamiliar opponent that can put up points. Nevertheless, it's impossible to pick against the Saints right now with that offense so locked in and Drew Brees, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara putting up a "triplets" season for the ages. According to ESPN Stats & Information data, the Saints have scored on 58 percent of their drives this season, which would be the highest rate for a team in 15 years. Saints 29, Bengals 24

Katherine Terrell's pick: This is not a good matchup for the Bengals, who will be without Vontaze Burfict, A.J. Green, Darqueze Dennard and Nick Vigil. Having two starting linebackers out doesn't bode well for a defense that has badly struggled the past few games, especially when it comes to stopping the run. Now the unit has to stop Kamara and Brees. The Bengals need their offense to keep pace with the Saints, who have no problem scoring quickly. While the New Orleans secondary is exploitable, it's going to be tough to do that without Green. It's possible the Saints have a letdown after a big game against the Rams, but it's hard to imagine their offense won't be able to score at will against the Bengals. Saints 38, Bengals 24

FPI win projection: NO, 52.8 percent. Brees enters the week with an 84.5 Total QBR, second in the league behind Patrick Mahomes (85.1). Against a Bengals defense ranked fifth-worst in opponent Total QBR (63.5) this season, he could very well improve upon that.

What to watch for in fantasy: Arguably one of the fastest players in the league, John Ross could return value as a WR3 option on a single deep pass. Per the matchup metrics, the Saints have allowed 14.4 percent more fantasy points per game to receivers than any other team. Read more.

In case you missed it: With Super Bowl in sights, Saints see Bryant as risk worth taking ... Who will step up for Bengals with Green out? ... Thomas, Kamara are Saints' most dynamic playmakers yet

Cardinals (2-6) at Chiefs (8-1): 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Point spread: KC -16.5 | Matchup quality: 49.8 (of 100)

Josh Weinfuss' pick: This isn't a matter of whether the Cardinals will win or lose. It's simply a matter of how much they will lose by. The Cardinals give up an average of 24.9 points per game, while the Chiefs score an average of 36.3. That's the recipe for a high-scoring game for Kansas City, although Arizona could still put up significant points and yards since the Chiefs have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They're ranked 31st in total yards allowed and 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game. The Cardinals could turn in their best offensive performance of the season and still get blown out. Chiefs 38, Cardinals 24

Adam Teicher's pick: The Chiefs are quietly playing good defense at Arrowhead Stadium. They're allowing 18.5 points per game in their four Arrowhead appearances, which is fifth-best in the league for home teams. It's a stretch to think the offensively challenged Cardinals, who are last in the league in yards and have topped 18 points just once this season, can keep up with the high-scoring Chiefs, and that's particularly true when it's played in Kansas City. Chiefs 34, Cardinals 16

FPI win projection: KC, 93.8 percent. The Chiefs are 94 percent favorites according to FPI, the biggest favorite in any game this season. The last time a team was favored by this much, according to FPI, was the Broncos over the Jaguars in Week 6 of 2013.

What to watch for in fantasy: Could it be a big second half for Larry Fitzgerald? Well, the matchup is good in Week 10. Read more.

In case you missed it: Mahomes making all 34 former Chiefs starting QBs look bad ... How Rosen found his confidence ... Peyton Manning's takeaways on Mahomes film

Jaguars (3-5) at Colts (3-5): 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Point spread: IND -3 | Matchup quality: 49.3 (of 100)

Mike DiRocco's pick: Expect a heavy dose of Leonard Fournette as the Jaguars try to return to the power-run offense they couldn't produce without him. That likely means 20-plus touches for Fournette, which will slow the game down and (theoretically) open things up a bit for Blake Bortles. The Jaguars have rushed for at least 136 yards in five of the past six games against the Colts, including 188 in Indianapolis without Fournette last season. The biggest matchup, though, is the Jaguars' pass rush against a Colts offensive line that hasn't given up a sack since Oct. 4. Per ESPN Stats & Information research, the Jaguars lead the league in QB pressures but have only 19 sacks to show for it. They have to get home against Andrew Luck or they'll lose their fifth in a row. Colts 17, Jaguars 14

Mike Wells' pick: The Colts enter on a two-game winning streak, and the Jaguars are riding a four-game skid. The Jaguars have won four of the past five meetings with their AFC South counterparts. Bortles, who was benched during their Week 7 loss to Houston, is 88-of-133 (66 percent) for 1,147 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions in the past four meetings against the Colts. The last thing the Colts can afford to do is fall behind early against the Jaguars because that will set things up for Jacksonville's pass rush, which had 10 sacks in its previous trip to Indianapolis in October 2017. Jaguars 27, Colts 20

FPI win projection: IND, 67.8 percent. The Jacksonville defense has taken a step down from last season, especially as of late. Over their past four games (since Week 5), the Jaguars have allowed a 79.9 Total QBR, the highest in the league in that span. Over that same span, Luck is seventh in the league with a 76.5 Total QBR.

What to watch for in fantasy: Jalen Ramsey is likely to shadow T.Y. Hilton throughout their Week 10 contest. The Jaguars have a league-low minus-2.5 Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed to opposing WR1s. Read more.

In case you missed it: In a must-win game, Jags have to solve nemesis Luck ... Pushed around for years, Colts' O-line is the bully now ... Marrone: Offensive line must earn trust again

Lions (3-5) at Bears (5-3): 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Point spread: CHI -6.5 | Matchup quality: 48.0 (of 100)

Michael Rothstein's pick: The Lions' offensive line gave up 10 sacks in Week 9 and allowed 17 quarterback hits. The Bears' defense might be just as good in the front seven as Minnesota, and coordinator Vic Fangio has figured out how to create mismatches and force some big problems. Then Chicago's offense, which relies on the diverse running styles of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, aligns with what has caused the Lions problems all season long. This doesn't look like a good matchup for Detroit on paper, and it won't be one on the field, either. Bears 28, Lions 21

Jeff Dickerson's pick: Chicago ranks near the top of most defensive statistical categories, including takeaways (21, second-most). The Bears' offense can be contained, but the defense is likely to cause Detroit all sorts of problems, especially with Khalil Mack expected to return. Bears 24, Lions 16

FPI win projection: CHI, 75.6 percent. The Bears enter Week 10 ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency by a large margin, according to FPI. They are at 75.2 (on a 0-to-100 scale) -- no other team is even at 70. The Bears also lead the league in opponent Total QBR at 46.3, with the next-closest team the Broncos at 52.0.

What to watch for in fantasy: Kerryon Johnson is a speedy running back who can exploit defenses by rushing outside the tackles, but Chicago isn't a defense that struggles in that regard. Read more.

In case you missed it: Blocking out 'negativity' of social media has helped Trubisky ... Johnson's low-key style helped him adapt to Lions

Falcons (4-4) at Browns (2-6-1): 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Point spread: ATL -4 | Matchup quality: 30.3 (of 100)

Vaughn McClure's pick: The Falcons are rolling at the right time with three consecutive victories, and Matt Ryan, who has 19 touchdowns and just three interceptions, is playing at an MVP level. As long as the Falcons don't fall victim to the Browns' tendency to create turnovers (league-high 23 takeaways), they should score often. The Falcons have converted 69.2 percent of their opportunities in the red zone, which ranks seventh-best in the league. Falcons 35, Browns 17

Pat McManamon's pick: The Browns go from a potent Kansas City offense to a potent Falcons offense that has more weapons than the Chiefs, at least according to safety Damarious Randall. Consider this game within the teams' current situations. The Browns are playing out a season and developing a quarterback, and they have injuries on defense. The Falcons, meanwhile, simply cannot afford to lose a game like this if they want to go to the playoffs. Falcons 31, Browns 20

FPI win projection: ATL, 68.1 percent. Since taking over as the starter in Week 4, Baker Mayfield has posted a 32.6 Total QBR, ahead of only Eli Manning and Sam Darnold in that span. He'll look to improve that against a Falcons defense that ranks fourth-worst in defensive efficiency, according to FPI.

What to watch for in fantasy: The Falcons' weaknesses on defense play right into what Cleveland does offensively, a good sign for Mayfield in Week 10. Read more.

In case you missed it: Kinder, gentler Gregg Williams is running Browns ... Return of the Mack: Cleveland helped Falcons center become great ... GM Dorsey in charge of Browns' head-coaching search ... Bruce Irvin comes home to Atlanta to help boost pass rush

Redskins (5-3) at Buccaneers (3-5): 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Point spread: TB -3 | Matchup quality: 20.9 (of 100)

John Keim's pick: This might be one of the Redskins' hardest games to predict because no one knows how the offensive line will fare with three starters missing. What's the impact on Adrian Peterson? The Redskins can run a variety of ways so they can tailor their attack to what the new linemen do well. But the key is simple for Washington: Get ahead early. The Redskins have not trailed in their wins; they have not led in their losses. Tampa ranks 19th in yards per carry allowed, but is 23rd in that area on first down, so that's where Washington must take advantage. The Redskins have this knack for responding when it looks bleak, and it looks bleak. Redskins 24, Buccaneers 23

Jenna Laine's pick: For the past four weeks, Bucs players have been calling these games "must-win," but they're really in crunch time now at 3-5. Their defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, and they've gone five games now without generating a single interception (the worst in the league in that department). Alex Smith is certainly not going to just give those out. So this is really on the shoulders of an offense that is averaging 27.75 points a game, and Tampa Bay can't afford another slow start in Week 10. Redskins 24, Buccaneers 21

FPI win projection: TB, 54.3 percent. Smith enters this game with a 50.7 Total QBR on the season, including a 45.1 since the Redskins' bye, sixth-worst in the league in that span. The Buccaneers' defense should be the remedy for that, as it has allowed a league-leading 73.6 Total QBR this season, including marks of 70-plus in six of eight games this season.

What to watch for in fantasy: This Redskins defense has allowed 300-plus passing yards to three of its past five opponents (and an average of 22.4 QB fantasy points in those five games). There's a lot of reason to think Ryan Fitzpatrick can enjoy another 20-point day in Week 10. Read more.

In case you missed it: Should the Bucs re-sign Winston or move on? ... After strong start, injuries could derail Redskins' playoff hopes ... Evans expects trash talk, physical play vs. Norman

Bills (2-7) at Jets (3-6): 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Point spread: NYJ -7 | Matchup quality: 13.5 (of 100)

Mike Rodak's pick: The last time Josh McCown started against the Bills at MetLife Stadium, a 34-21 Jets victory last November, his Total QBR (85.5) was the fifth-highest of his 95-game career. McCown did not throw a pick-six all of last season, whereas Bills quarterbacks have thrown as many this season (three) as they have touchdown passes. Jets 20, Bills 13

Rich Cimini's pick: The Jets go from Brock Osweiler to Nathan Peterman (maybe), who produces more turnovers than Pillsbury. If the defense can't end its three-game takeaway drought, something is seriously wrong. McCown hasn't played a regular-season game in 337 days, but his mind and savviness will overcome the rust and carry the Jets to an ugly win as they head into their bye week. Jets 12, Bills 6

FPI win projection: NYJ, 71.8 percent. Regardless of which quarterback plays for either team, the Jets will be a heavy favorite thanks to their defense. New York ranks third in defensive efficiency this season, while the Bills have the worst offense in FPI's data set by efficiency (since the start of 2008 season).

What to watch for in fantasy: In the rare game where both defensive units stand out as strong streaming candidates, both offenses feature largely inept quarterback play this season. Read more.

In case you missed it: Injured Darnold could benefit from role reversal ... Stat by stat, Bills' offense inching toward NFL infamy

Chargers (6-2) at Raiders (1-7): 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox

Point spread: LAC -10 | Matchup quality: 39.4 (of 100)

Eric D. Williams' pick: The Chargers have to guard against complacency, facing their AFC West rivals as double-digit favorites on the road. With the Raiders allowing a league-worst 144.5 rushing yards per contest, expect to see a lot of Melvin Gordon in this one as the Chargers try to secure their sixth straight win. Chargers 30, Raiders 23

Paul Gutierrez's pick: In his past three meetings with the Raiders, Chargers QB Philip Rivers has thrown for a combined 994 yards and six touchdowns without an interception while completing 83.3 percent of his passes. Oakland's defense is allowing an NFL-worst 6.8 yards per play and is closer to being an expansion team than a contender. Chargers 34, Raiders 13

FPI win projection: LAC, 75.4 percent. The Chargers are a heavy favorite on the road, projected to win 75 percent of the time by FPI. The last time the Chargers were this big of an FPI favorite on the road came in Week 6 of 2014, which was also against the Raiders.

What to watch for in fantasy: Week 9 wasn't the best outing for the Chargers' stars from a fantasy standpoint, but their ceilings should be a lot higher Sunday in a matchup against a Raiders defense that is a sieve in nearly every aspect. Read more.

In case you missed it: Raiders' offensive line leaves Carr under constant duress ... Barksdale uses guitar as therapy in battle with depression ... With Irvin now gone, who steps up on the Raiders' D-line?

Seahawks (4-4) at Rams (8-1): 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Point spread: LAR -10 | Matchup quality: 67.9 (of 100)

Brady Henderson's pick: The Seahawks nearly knocked off the Rams in Week 5 by rushing for a season-high 190 yards and winning the turnover battle 2-0. That winning formula will be difficult to replicate in the rematch now that running back Chris Carson is looking iffy with a sore hip and right guard D.J. Fluker is dealing with a calf injury. They're arguably the two most important members of a running game that is the best shot at upsetting the Rams. Rams 31, Seahawks 24

Lindsey Thiry's pick: The Rams are coming off their first loss of the season, have a clean bill of health and will be plenty motivated to shut down the Seahawks after allowing Seattle to run all over them five weeks ago. The Rams' offense continues to fire on all cylinders behind Todd Gurley, who leads the league in rushing and touchdowns. Rams 34, Seahawks 24

FPI win projection: LAR, 76.9 percent. While the Rams are essentially a lock to make the playoffs, according to FPI, a lot hangs in the balance for the Seahawks in Week 10. Seattle would have a 50 percent chance to make the playoffs with a win and a 24 percent chance with a loss. Only the NFC East teams facing off on Sunday night will see their playoff chances affected more this weekend.

What to watch for in fantasy: Cooper Kupp technically has a tough matchup against Justin Coleman, but he wasn't slowed in the first meeting, when Kupp caught six of eight targets for 90 yards and a touchdown on only 23 routes. Read more.

In case you missed it: Rams' Super Bowl-or-bust season rests with defense ... Why Wright has all sorts of incentive for a strong finish to 2018

Dolphins (5-4) at Packers (3-4-1): 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Point spread: GB -10 | Matchup quality: 45.9 (of 100)

Cameron Wolfe's pick: It's not often that a team with a winning record is a double-digit underdog against a team with a losing record, but that's the case here as Miami has done little to prove it can keep up when facing elite quarterbacks. The Dolphins lead the NFL with 15 interceptions, but as Adam Gase said, "Aaron Rodgers is a little different than Sam Darnold." Miami simply doesn't have the offense to keep up with a desperate Green Bay team at home. Packers 31, Dolphins 16

Rob Demovsky's pick: The Packers should bounce back after consecutive road losses at the Rams and Patriots, but it only means something if they put together a consistent performance. They haven't in ages, and if they're to have any chance the next two games, at Seattle on a short week and at Minnesota, they have to build momentum Sunday. Packers 23, Dolphins 13

FPI win projection: GB, 82.0 percent. Rodgers enters this game ranked 19th in the NFL in Total QBR (58.0) and has not even reached a 65 Total QBR in a game this season. Since Rodgers took over as the starter in 2008, he has posted at least a 60 Total QBR in every season.

What to watch for in fantasy: We can expect Xavien Howard to travel with Davante Adams on Sunday. Howard is a decent young corner, but far from a dominant presence. Read more.

In case you missed it: Packers' struggle 'feels different' than in past ... More of rookie WR could help Packers

Cowboys (3-5) at Eagles (4-4): 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

Point spread: PHI -7 | Matchup quality: 56.4 (of 100)

Todd Archer's pick: The last two times these teams have met in Philadelphia there was nothing on the line with the Cowboys (2016) and Eagles (2017) having already clinched home-field advantage in the playoffs. But now Dallas' season could very well be on the line. The key will be its offensive line. It must get Ezekiel Elliott going. In five of eight games, Elliott has not reached 80 yards running. He had just two games with less than 80 yards rushing in his first two seasons. Philadelphia has the second-ranked run defense, and the Cowboys will be operating with a different left guard for the first time this season. Eagles 27, Cowboys 17

Tim McManus' pick: The bye week did not rid the Eagles of their injury problems. Cornerbacks Sidney Jones and Jalen Mills likely won't play, running back Darren Sproles re-aggravated his hamstring and will remain sidelined, and right tackle Lane Johnson is planning to gut through a Grade 2 MCL sprain. What they do have going for them is rest, and an extra week's worth of preparation by the coaching staff for a Dallas team that played Monday night. That should be enough to power past the Cowboys, who appear a bit disjointed at the moment. Eagles 28, Cowboys 20

FPI win projection: PHI, 73.6 percent. No game will have a bigger impact on playoff chances this weekend than Cowboys-Eagles, according to FPI. The Eagles could see their chances swing by 35 percentage points (70 percent with win, 35 percent with loss), and the Cowboys by 28 (34 percent with win, 6 percent with loss). Those are the two highest potential swings in Week 10.

What to watch for in fantasy: Amari Cooper found the end zone in his Dallas debut and is set up nicely for a big follow-up in Week 10. Philadelphia's perimeter corners have struggled all season. Read more.

In case you missed it: New WR Tate can deliver knockout blow to Cowboys ... Cowboys facing 'must-win' game with 13.1 percent playoff chance ... Torn toes? Eagles share worst injuries they've played through ... With 'backs against the wall,' Cowboys try to focus on positives


Giants (1-7) at 49ers (2-7): 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/WatchESPN

Point spread: SF -3 | Matchup quality: 25.2 (of 100)

Jordan Raanan's pick: The Giants are coming off a bye week, so that should work to their advantage. Coach Pat Shurmur's offense in Minnesota scored 38 points on the road in Washington last season off the bye, gaining over 400 total yards. This is Eli Manning's last stand with the Giants. He had multiple conversations over the weekend with Shurmur, who would only declare him the starter for Week 10. Manning gets enough done against a mediocre 49ers defense allowing 248.9 yards per game through the air. Giants 28, 49ers 24

Nick Wagoner's pick: Last week, Niners quarterback Nick Mullens lit up the Raiders in large part because their anemic pass rush allowed him to stand in the pocket and deliver. What can he do for an encore? Well, the Giants aren't much better at getting to quarterbacks (31st in the NFL in sacks and 25th in pressure percentage), which means Mullens should have time to make enough plays to deliver the Niners their first winning streak of the season and their sixth consecutive home victory on Monday Night Football. 49ers 24, Giants 20

FPI win projection: SF, 55.9 percent. The Giants (11 percent) and 49ers (9 percent) enter Monday night's game with the third- and fourth-best chances to get the No. 1 overall pick, according to FPI. Whichever team wins would see its chances drop to under 5 percent, while the loser's chances would jump north of 15 percent.

What to watch for in fantasy: Both Mullens and Manning appear to be worthy streamers in Week 10. The 49ers have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to QBs (19.4), while the Giants have yielded 17.1 to opposing passers. Read more.

In case you missed it: Lauletta's debut remains on hold, but for how long? ... 49ers' playoff hopes evaporated with knee injury to Garoppolo ... OBJ turns 26: Stats stack up favorably to all-time greats at same age