The Week 4 NFL schedule is stacked with great matchups. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score picks.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a stat to know for each game and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN Fantasy's Kyle Soppe and ESPN Chalk's Dave Bearman hand out helpful nuggets as well. It's all here to help get you ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let's get into the full Week 4 slate.
Note: The Pittsburgh Steelers' Week 4 matchup at the Tennessee Titans has been postponed. Also, the New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs game that was scheduled for Sunday will now be played either Monday or Tuesday.
1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 57.9 | Spread: SEA -6 (54)
What to watch for: How will Miami choose to defend the Seahawks' vertical passing game? The way Russell Wilson is connecting with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett downfield is forcing opposing teams into tough decisions. If Miami allocates more resources downfield -- by mixing deep-zone looks or by adding a defensive back to the mix -- the Seahawks could try to counter with a run-heavy attack. Coach Brian Flores will need decisive play from his secondary to knock off Seattle. -- Jeremy Fowler
Bold prediction: Lockett and Metcalf will each go for at least 100 receiving yards for the second straight week. They're facing a Miami secondary whose top cornerback, Byron Jones, is banged up. Seattle's defense has been gashed through the air and is dealing with all sorts of injuries of its own. That means the Seahawks might need another huge day from Wilson and their passing game, especially if Chris Carson's injured knee makes their running game less viable. -- Brady Henderson
Stat to know: Per NFL Next Gen Stats data, Wilson's three TDs on passes traveling 50 yards of air distance are the most in the NFL. And his 76.7% completion percentage is an NFL-best 9.7 percentage points above expected (67.0%).
What to know for fantasy: Both Lockett and Metcalf are top-six options at the position this season. The last pair of teammates to do that for a full season: Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders with Denver in 2014. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: In the past three seasons, Seattle is 7-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in 1 p.m. ET games. Read more.
Henderson's pick: Seahawks 30, Dolphins 24
Fowler's pick: Seahawks 23, Dolphins 16
FPI prediction: SEA, 62.5% (by an average of 4.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Despite 3-0 start, Seahawks' defense more Big 12 than Legion of Boom ... Dolphins provide framework for diverse leadership on, off field ... Wilson bests Mahomes with record 14th TD in first three games
1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 54 | Spread: DAL -4.5 (56)
What to watch for: Can the Cowboys play with a lead? In three games, they have held the lead for 13 minutes, 27 seconds. The Cowboys are playing at a faster pace than any other team, running a play every 19.8 seconds, according to Football Outsiders research. Some of that is due to playing catch-up in multiscore deficits. Some of that is by design. But for the Cowboys to flow better, they need their offense to control tempo of the game and protect their defense. To do that, they need to capitalize early and establish a lead. -- Todd Archer
Bold prediction: With his former college QB in the house, Baker Mayfield, Dallas rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb breaks out with two TD grabs. He hasn't yet found the end zone, despite racking up 230 yards on 16 catches over three games. -- Jake Trotter
Stat to know: For Cleveland, running back Nick Chubb can become the first Browns player with 100 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in three straight games since Jim Brown did it in 1962-63. For Dallas, quarterback Dak Prescott can become the second NFL QB with three straight 400-plus-yard passing games after posting 450 or more in back-to-back games (Ryan Fitzpatrick is the other, doing so in September 2018).
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are off to their first 0-3 ATS start to a season since 1989 (finished 1-15 straight up and 6-10 ATS that season). Read more.
Trotter's pick: Cowboys 40, Browns 31
Archer's pick: Cowboys 33, Browns 26
FPI prediction: DAL, 66.9% (by an average of 6.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Despite obstacles, Browns' offense finding its stride in 2-1 start ... What's wrong with Cowboys' defense? 'It's more than one thing' ... Mayfield, Browns' passing attack looking for more ... Cowboys have to 'figure out a way and clean it up' in a hurry
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 52.7 | Spread: BAL -14 (45)
What to watch for: Washington's defense was made tentative by Arizona's dual-threat quarterback Kyler Murray, and now it must face an even more dangerous dual-threat player in Lamar Jackson. In his career, Jackson has completed just 55.1% of his throws versus six or more pass-rushers. Washington has blitzed well this season, especially with its inside linebackers, but it's a gamble -- Jackson has rushed for 1,388 yards in his career. Meanwhile, the Ravens have always had success facing young quarterbacks under coordinator Don Martindale, using a lot of zone blitzes. Second-year quarterback Dwayne Haskins Jr. will have to be sharp to avoid another three-interception game, as the Ravens have six takeaways this season. -- John Keim
Bold prediction: The Ravens have two players go over 100 yards rushing. Baltimore has heard the criticism about getting away from the run in Monday night's loss to the Chiefs. Washington has given up 142.8 yards rushing on average since the start of the 2019 season, the NFL's second-worst run defense over that span. The Ravens get their feared rushing attack back on track. -- Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: Haskins' 56.4% completion percentage is the lowest in the NFL among QBs to start all three games.
What to know for fantasy: Washington receiver Terry McLaurin has 241.1 fantasy points through 17 career games, more than Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper had at this point in their respective careers. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Baltimore is 36-0 outright as a double-digit favorite in the regular season, the only team never to lose such a game. Read more.
Hensley's pick: Ravens 41, Washington 10
Keim's pick: Ravens 33, Washington 16
FPI prediction: BAL, 80.5% (by an average of 11.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Ravens will be haunted by Chiefs loss all season ... Source: Washington loses DT Ioannidis for year ... Ravens must figure out Chiefs puzzle ... Rivera sticking with Haskins despite 3 picks
1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 51.4 | Spread: NO -4.5 (54)
What to watch for: In six career games against the Saints, Matthew Stafford has averaged 303.2 yards per game. And dating back to 2009, five of the seven matchups between these teams have seen the winner score 30-plus points. So figure a high-scoring game is coming once again. -- Michael Rothstein
Bold prediction: The Saints' stars will break out of their rut, starting with defensive end Cameron Jordan, who will get his first two sacks of the year. -- Mike Triplett
Stat to know: The Saints have been called for nine defensive pass interference penalties, which is already tied with the 2017 Bengals for the most DPI penalties through four games over past 20 seasons, despite not yet having played their fourth game.
Betting nugget: The Saints are an NFL-best 24-9 ATS on the road since the start of the 2016 season. They're 12-4 ATS as road favorites in that time. Read more.
Triplett's pick: Saints 30, Lions 22
Rothstein's pick: Saints 38, Lions 31
FPI prediction: NO, 66.0% (by an average of 5.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Saints' defense deserves its own scrutiny for 1-2 start ... Defense offers Lions a brief glimmer of hope ... Time to worry about Brees and the Saints? ... Making sense of Walker's usage ... Payton: Two straight losses 'bit of a gut check' for undisciplined Saints
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 50.5 | Spread: TB -6.5 (42.5)
What to watch for: Justin Herbert, 22, and 43-year-old Tom Brady face off in what will be the first game since at least 1950 in which two opposing quarterbacks have a 20-year age gap. But this is really about a Bucs pass rush that has 12 sacks through the first three games of the season -- its best mark since 2013 -- against a rookie quarterback who's handling the blitz remarkably well. How will Herbert fare with offensive linemen Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner both battling injuries? -- Jenna Laine
Bold prediction: Herbert will have the best day of his young career as an NFL quarterback, throwing for more than 400 yards. The Chargers will regroup and reload on defense, too, leading to a big victory on the road. -- Shelley Smith
Stat to know: Herbert is just the third player in NFL history to pass for 300-plus yards in each of his first two career games, joining Kyler Murray and Cam Newton. Brady, however, now has eight consecutive games with under 300 passing yards.
Betting nugget: Brady has won eight straight meetings against the Chargers, going 7-1 ATS in that span. Read more.
Smith's pick: Chargers 34, Buccaneers 27
Laine's pick: Buccaneers 28, Chargers 13
FPI prediction: TB, 78.4% (by an average of 10.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Keys to Chargers' turnaround? 'Eliminating the stupid and the turnovers' ... WR Godwin likely out vs. Chargers; Week 6 return possible ... What's going right for the Bucs' suddenly potent pass rush? ... Gronk on Brady: Hard to believe he's 43 years old
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 48.9 | Spread: IND -2.5 (43)
What to watch for: Bears quarterback Nick Foles and Colts head coach Frank Reich have a lot of history together. Foles, who takes over for Mitchell Trubisky on Sunday, credits Reich for "really being the one that figured me out as a player." Reich served as the Eagles' offensive coordinator in 2017 when Foles led Philadelphia to a victory in Super Bowl LII, a game in which Foles won MVP honors. Few coaches know Foles better than Reich, and it will be interesting to see how the Colts defend the new Chicago starting quarterback. -- Jeff Dickerson
Bold prediction: The Colts will run for more than 130 yards. What better way to keep Khalil Mack and the rest of the Bears from putting pressure on Colts quarterback Philip Rivers? Run the ball. The Colts have rushed for 119 and 151 yards in their past two games. It also doesn't help that they're banged up at receiver, as Parris Campbell (knee) and Michael Pittman Jr. (calf) are both out. The Bears gave up 144 yards rushing to Atlanta in Week 2. -- Mike Wells
Stat to know: The Bears have an NFL-best plus-31 score differential in the fourth quarter (but are minus-19 in first three quarters).
Betting nugget: Foles is 4-12 ATS as a starting quarterback with teams other than the Eagles. Read more.
Wells' pick: Bears 24, Colts 20
Dickerson's pick: Colts 28, Bears 27
FPI prediction: IND, 56.3% (by an average of 2.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Colts have NFL's best defense in several categories ... It's Foles' show as Bears hand him the keys ... Rookie WR Pittman Jr. out indefinitely after leg surgery ... Meet Quinn, Bears new pass rush bookend
1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 43.1 | Spread: HOU -3.5 (53.5)
What to watch for: Vikings running back Dalvin Cook is coming off a career-high 181 rushing yards in Week 3, and he's facing a Texans defense that has struggled against the run, especially in the fourth quarter. Through three weeks, Houston has allowed an average of 188.3 rushing yards per game, which is by far the worst in the NFL. The last Vikings player with consecutive 150-yard rushing games was Adrian Peterson in 2013. -- Sarah Barshop
Bold prediction: To that end, the Vikings' star running back will total 20 carries for 160 yards and two touchdowns. Not a lot has gone right for Minnesota, but the Vikings do average a league-best 6.0 yards per carry. The Texans, on the other hand, have allowed two 100-yard rushers in the first three weeks and are allowing an average of 5.2 yards per rush. Cook won't top his career rushing performance from Week 3, but he'll come close. -- Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson has been sacked 13 times this season, the second most in the NFL behind Joe Burrow (14). And since the start of the 2018 season, Watson has been sacked 119 times, the most in the NFL over that span.
What to know for fantasy: Watson was a top-10 QB in the majority of his starts last season, but in his first three games in the post-DeAndre Hopkins era, he has posted finishes of 12th, 21st and 18th at the position. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Vikings are an NFL-best 27-10-1 ATS after a loss in the Mike Zimmer era (since 2014). Read more.
Cronin's pick: Vikings 28, Texans 27
Barshop's pick: Texans 24, Vikings 21
FPI prediction: MIN, 52.7% (by an average of 1 points)
Matchup must-reads: The 0-3 Vikings are living and dying with the chaos they created ... At 0-3, history shows Texans need 'urgency more so than panic' ... Texans meet with safety Thomas, but don't sign him ... Watt loses bragging rights on brothers ... Jefferson's breakout game is a sign of more to come with Vikings
1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 37.6 | Spread: ARI -3 (51)
What to watch for: Will Carolina create pressure on Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray, who was forced into three interceptions this past week by Detroit? The Panthers finally found a pass rush against the Chargers, and it was, as coach Matt Rhule said afterward, what gave them a chance to win. Now they could have Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kawann Short back beside first-round pick Derrick Brown, who is starting to come into his own. Keep an eye on their pressure up the middle and see whether Carolina can pressure Murray like it did last year, when it had eight sacks against him. -- David Newton
Bold prediction: Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will throw for 350 yards against a Cardinals secondary that is thin and limited. Arizona will start Deionte Thompson and Curtis Riley at safety this week as starters Budda Baker and Chris Banjo are sidelined with injuries. That will allow Bridgewater to attack the biggest weakness in the Cardinals' defense -- the middle of the secondary -- on a regular basis until the Cardinals figure out a way to slow it down, which might end up happening with rookie Isaiah Simmons. -- Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: The Panthers are averaging 99 rushing yards per game, the seventh fewest in the NFL. They have been under 100 rushing yards in their past two games, and they haven't gone three straight games in that department since Weeks 9-11 of the 2016 season.
What to know for fantasy: Cardinals receiver DeAndre Hopkins has 73.6 fantasy points, his most through three games of any season of his career. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: This marks the first time since Week 9 of 2017 that Arizona has been a road favorite. Read more.
Weinfuss' pick: Cardinals 24, Panthers 21
Newton's pick: Cardinals 30, Panthers 27
FPI prediction: ARI, 50.0% (by an average of 0.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Hot start for Cardinals' Hopkins coincides with decline for Fitzgerald ... Brother's mistake and father's love drive Panthers RB Davis ... Ward, out of NFL since 2017, signs with Arizona ... Panthers prepare for fans with 'germ-zapping robot' ... Panthers finally get to know one another, then get first win
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 16.5 | Spread: CIN -3 (49)
What to watch for: Cincinnati and Jacksonville are in various stages of rebuilding, with the Jaguars evaluating Gardner Minshew II as their potential QB of the future and the Bengals looking for their first win in the Joe Burrow era. Jacksonville is making the best of things after offloading key talent this offseason, while Cincinnati is enjoying a nice start from its pick at No. 1 this past April. Burrow has the most completions (91) by any player in his first three career games in NFL history, per ESPN Stats & Information research. -- Ben Baby
Bold prediction: Jacksonville and Cincinnati will combine for double-digit sacks. Neither team's defense has had a lot of success rushing the passer, but this will be a breakout week for both. Burrow and Minshew have been sacked a combined 24 times, and both defenses will finally be able to get after the quarterback. If not this week, then when? -- Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: Bengals running back Joe Mixon has 164 rushing yards total in three games this season. He had 162 in his 2019 season finale alone.
Betting nugget: The Jaguars are an NFL-best 14-6-1 ATS in games with more than six days of rest since 2011. Read more.
DiRocco's pick: Bengals 33, Jaguars 30
Baby's pick: Jaguars 24, Bengals 17
FPI prediction: CIN, 61.2% (by an average of 4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Tight ends finally a target in Jaguars' offense ... Bengals want balance for Burrow between 'being smart' and getting hit ... Hauschka will be latest to fill in as Jaguars kicker ... First-half defensive problems giving Jaguars little chance to win ... 'Three points ain't going to win it': What continues to plague Bengals
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 47.3 | Spread: LAR -13 (48)
What to watch for: The Giants are really struggling amid an 0-3 start, scoring an average of only 12.3 points per game. The Rams' offense, however, is finding its stride behind quarterback Jared Goff and is unlikely to slow against a defense that's allowing 26.3 points per game. Watch for the Rams' running game to get moving behind Darrell Henderson Jr. and for Goff to establish early connections with a plethora of targets as Giants defensive back Jabrill Peppers is unlikely to play because of an ankle injury. -- Lindsey Thiry
Bold prediction: Aaron Donald produces double-digit QB pressures. He has done it before (Week 1 against the Cowboys), so why not again against this Giants offensive line that allowed seven to Bud Dupree in Week 1 and seven to Khalil Mack in Week 2? Donald versus Nick Gates, who was moved to center this season, is a massive mismatch. -- Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: The Giants have an NFL-worst 170 rushing yards this season, the fifth-lowest total though three games in franchise history. On the other side of the field, the Rams' Henderson is coming off a career-high 114 rushing yards last week, and Los Angeles has six TDs on the ground this season (only the Patriots have more, with seven).
What to know for fantasy: Henderson is averaging 6.1 yards per carry over the past two weeks and had a rushing score in both of those games. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Three of the past four times New York has been a double-digit underdog, it won the game outright, dating back to its Super Bowl XLII win over New England. Read more.
Raanan's pick: Rams 31, Giants 20
Thiry's pick: Rams 35, Giants 14
FPI prediction: LAR, 84.8% (by an average of 14.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Giants preach optimism, but they're not close to being a good team ... The Rams extended Ramsey, Kupp and Woods: Now what? ... Projected 2021 NFL draft order: Giants, Jets take over as favorites for No. 1 pick ... Rams decry costly pass interference call that led to Buffalo Bills' go-ahead TD
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 62.6 | Spread: BUF -3 (53)
What to watch for: The Raiders' secondary is beat up, with rookie cornerback Damon Arnette aggravating his broken right thumb and second-year safety Johnathan Abram dealing with shoulder and thumb injuries. And it faces Bills quarterback Josh Allen, the fourth player in NFL history with at least 1,000 passing yards (1,038), 10 passing TDs (10) and a passer rating of at least 120 (124.8) in his team's first three games of a season. With at least 300 passing yards and two touchdowns Sunday, Allen will join Steve Young and Peyton Manning as the only quarterbacks with at least those numbers in each of his first four games of a season. Yikes. -- Paul Gutierrez
Bold prediction: Buffalo running backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss both score as the Bills rack up 150-plus rushing yards. While predicting big numbers for Allen is no longer bold, the same can't be said for the Bills' run game. The Raiders rank 28th in rushing yards allowed, paving the way for a monster day for Buffalo's runners. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: The Raiders are allowing a 56 QBR in man coverage this season, the seventh lowest in the NFL. But Allen has thrown eight touchdowns and zero interceptions against man coverage this season for a 94.4 QBR, the fourth best in the NFL among qualified QBs.
What to know for fantasy: Las Vegas tight end Darren Waller ranks fifth in the NFL with a 29.5% target share. The highest target rate by a tight end over the past 15 seasons was Tony Gonzalez in 2008 (28.9%), a season in which he was TE1 by 59.9 points. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: The over is 3-0 in Bills games this season. The over was 18-29-1 in Sean McDermott's first three seasons as the Bills' head coach. Read more.
Louis-Jacques' pick: Bills 31, Raiders 21
Gutierrez's pick: Bills 32, Raiders 23
FPI prediction: BUF, 50.4% (by an average of 0.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: More proof Bills' Allen is an MVP candidate? Third-and-22 conversion ... Wounded, weary Raiders limping into home game vs. unbeaten Bills ... Raiders find a silver (and black?) lining in loss to Patriots with Bills up next
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating: 55.1 | Spread: SF -7 (46)
What to watch for: Can Carson Wentz bounce back against the 49ers' second-ranked pass defense? Wentz's early-season struggles have garnered a lot of attention, and coach Doug Pederson said this week that he needs to simplify things so Wentz can "unclutter" his mind. The Niners are allowing just 187.3 passing yards per game and would qualify as the best defense Wentz, who has thrown six interceptions and has just a 35.5 QBR, has faced so far this season. -- Nick Wagoner
Bold prediction: Niners tight end George Kittle will score two touchdowns. He has missed the past two games with a knee sprain but returns to a very favorable matchup. The Eagles have allowed four touchdowns to tight ends so far this season, including three by Tyler Higbee in a Week 2 loss to the Rams. Like Rams coach Sean McVay, Niners coach Kyle Shanahan will exploit the mismatches. If Kittle draws linebacker coverage, look out. -- Tim McManus
Stat to know: The Eagles have been outscored by 36 points in the second half this season, the second worst in the NFL ahead of only the Falcons (minus-41). They have outscored opponents by eight points in the first half, though.
What to know for fantasy: Since the beginning of last season, the Eagles are getting a league-high 14.2 fantasy points per week from the tight end position. But Dallas Goedert has an ankle fracture and will be inactive this weekend. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: San Francisco is 4-17-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2014, including 3-8-2 ATS with Kyle Shanahan as coach (regular season). Read more.
McManus' pick: 49ers 31, Eagles 20
Wagoner's pick: 49ers 34, Eagles 17
FPI prediction: SF, 78.8% (by an average of 11.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Eagles' Pederson must 'unclutter' Wentz's mind, and his own ... After 2017 'massacre' in Philadelphia, 49ers turned their franchise around ... Source: Eagles' Goedert has small ankle fracture ... Mullens keeping pylons and the 49ers standing ... How an Australian girl with autism forged a bond with the Eagles ... Kittle practices; Samuel cleared to return
What to watch for: Points, points and more points. The Packers are the first team in NFL history with 35-plus points and no turnovers in each of their first three games of a season. It's the 10th all-time meeting between Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan (including playoffs, and Ryan has a 5-4 advantage), a matchup that comes with a combined average of 57.4 points per game. There have been 66 instances of quarterbacks facing off 10 or more times in the Super Bowl era, and no pair has averaged more points per game than Rodgers and Ryan. -- Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: The Falcons won't blow a big fourth-quarter lead for the third consecutive week. Why? Because the Packers will drop 42 points at home. The Falcons have allowed 30-plus points in three straight games but haven't done so in four straight since 2007. -- Vaughn McClure
Stat to know: Atlanta receiver Julio Jones did not play in Week 3 (hamstring) but is potentially set to return Monday. Good timing. He has three consecutive games with 100-plus receiving yards against the Packers (including playoffs) and posted 259 receiving yards in the last matchup between these two teams on Monday Night Football (Dec. 8, 2014). That is the most receiving yards in a game against the Packers all time and the fourth-most receiving yards in Monday Night Football history.
What to know for fantasy: Rodgers is on a run of historical efficiency (60 touchdowns and six interceptions since the beginning of 2018), and he is averaging his most air yards per throw since 2009. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Atlanta has covered five straight road games dating back to last season. Read more.
McClure's pick: Packers 42, Falcons 28
Demovsky's pick: Packers 35, Falcons 27
FPI prediction: GB, 68.4% (by an average of 6.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Falcons' drones will clean stadium after games ... Packers' offense playing like 2011, but so is D (badly) ... Falcons locker room supports Quinn after historic blown leads ... Lazar can catch; defense can't tackle ... Falcons' secondary takes hit as Dennard hits IR
What to watch for: Can the Chiefs crack the code of Stephon Gilmore? The veteran Patriots cornerback has been a problem for the Chiefs in four games against them since he arrived in New England. Gilmore has allowed just five catches for 84 yards when targeted as the nearest defender in coverage in those games, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. He has not allowed a completion to Tyreek Hill in those four games in which he has been the nearest defender in coverage. -- Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: Patriots running back James White's return to the team provides a spark, and he will have a receiving TD, becoming the fastest RB in NFL history to reach the 25-TD reception mark (80th regular-season game). Brian Westbrook currently holds the record with 25 in 87 games. -- Mike Reiss
Stat to know: The Chiefs' Hill has two receiving touchdowns of 20-plus yards this season, tied for the second most in the NFL. And the Patriots have allowed three such scores this season, also tied for the second most.
What to know for fantasy: Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is coming off of a career-high 40-point performance. Since 2018, he has seven games with 370 passing yards and three passing scores. That's the same number of such games as Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan combined over that stretch. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Since 2006, New England is 20-6 ATS as an underdog. Read more.
Reiss' pick: Chiefs 31, Patriots 27
Teicher's pick: Chiefs 27, Patriots 22
FPI prediction: KC, 70.6% (by an average of 7.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Patriots 7-point underdogs for third time in the past 18 seasons ... Mahomes: Chiefs' Kelce won't be babysitting ... Chiefs added 'wrinkles' on Monday that impress Mahomes and Belichick ... Chiefs CB Sneed to IR with broken collarbone