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Wednesday, November 21
 
Sometimes, plus/minus equals confusion

By Brian Engblom
Special to ESPN.com

The plus/minus rating is a useful statistic, but it is often overrated. A number of factors -- many of them out of a player's control -- affect a player's rating, which is why you can't take the numbers too literally.

Patrice Brisebois
Montreal's Patrice Brisebois started last season a career plus-29. He ended it a minus-2.
Coaches use the plus/minus stat to look for trends. Over a block of time, whether it is 10 games or half a season, coaches will look at the stat and figure out what is going either right or wrong. For forwards, they may use the plus/minus rating to see how effective a player may have been with certain line combinations.

Sometimes, the plus/minus can be just plain complicated. Jon Klemm, who is at plus-nine, has had an excellent season in Chicago, playing against the top lines. But he was recently a minus-three in a 7-1 loss to Edmonton. While it may indicate that he had a lousy night, it may also be misleading. Perhaps none of the goals scored during Klemm's shift came on his side, or perhaps all of them did.

Look at Washington's 11-5 loss to Ottawa recently; the Capitals' Rob Zettler was amazingly a plus-three in the game. Coach Ron Wilson brought up a good point to me about the plus/minus, using Andrei Nikolishin as an example. Although Wilson had been yelling at the Capitals about their lack of defensive responsibility, Nikolishin was playing great and had been a plus in all 17 games. But in the Senators' loss, Nikolishin was a minus-three, and then was a minus-two in their next game against Philadelphia. Go figure.

Although plus/minus doesn't always indicate how well or poorly a player is playing, there is one thing certain: Playing on a good team or a bad team impacts a player's plus/minus rating in a big way. I don't care if you are a Hall of Fame player: the best players on a bad team will really get hurt.

Calculating plus/minus
A skater gets a +1 if he is on the ice when his team scores an even-strength or shorthanded goal. He gets a -1 if he is on the ice when his team allows an even-strength or shorthanded goal. The same guidlines apply if one team pulls its goaltender, as both sides are still considered to be at even-strength.
During the 1997-98 season, Brian Leetch was a contender for the Norris Trophy, as he is every year. However, playing for the New York Rangers, he was a minus-36. In fact, he has been a minus the past four seasons, all seasons in which the Rangers missed the playoffs. His minus rating was not a reflection of his play as much as it was a reflection of the team's overall offensive and defensive woes while he was still playing 30 minutes a night.

On the flip side, the plus/minus leaders have one thing in common -- playing on a good teams. Look at the top six players: Chris Chelios (Detroit), Jarome Iginla (Calgary), Brendan Shanahan (Detroit), Daniel Alfredsson (Ottawa), Theo Fleury (NY Rangers) and Todd White (Ottawa) -- all players on good teams. And so far this season Leetch is at plus-12 because the Rangers are a far better team.

It also helps a plus/minus rating to be a huge scoring threat. Last year Joe Sakic and Patrik Elias, who were No. 2 and No. 3 in scoring respectively, tied for the league lead in plus/minus with a plus-45. It helped that they played on lines that were great in terms of puck control and two-way responsibilities. If you have the puck all the time, that means the other team doesn't. There is no better defense than having the puck.

To the best of anyone's knowledge, Bobby Orr has the plus/minus record with a plus-124 during the 1970-71 season. People used to say Orr was excellent with the puck and a great skater while not being the best defensive defenseman. But legends like Gordie Howe and Bobby Hull would say that criticism is crazy. Orr had the puck all the time; there is no better defense than that. Puck possession is everything. During a game Hull once told the referee, "Can you put another puck out here? Let Bobby have that one and let the rest of us play with the other one."

Two of today's best offensive defensemen, Al MacInnis and Scott Stevens, have never been minus. Although MacInnis had three straight zeroes at the beginning of his career (playing in only 67 games combined), he has had 17 straight years of being a plus. While Stevens is no longer much of a scoring threat, he has been plus for 15 straight seasons and had a league-leading plus-53 in 1993-94. Like Sakic and Elias on the front end, MacInnis and Stevens are examples of defensemen who have been excellent two-way players.

Other players helped in the plus/minus department are the No. 5 or No. 6 defensemen on a really good team. For example, Greg de Vries was a plus-23 in Colorado last season. No disrespect to de Vries, who had a great season. But his job was to protect his own end, which he did while the Avalanche were scoring a ton of goals. That's how he ended up with a big plus number.

My situation was much like de Vries. Playing in Montreal, at first was job was to stay back. I was told, "Pass the puck up to Guy Lafleur, Steve Shutt, Yvan Cournoyer and Jacques Lemaire, and they will score." And they did. We had a strong team, and I led the league in 1980-81 with a plus-63, followed by a plus-78 the following year. I was always the beneficiary of a team possessed the puck and scored goals.

As a defensive role player, the plus/minus can be frustrating. Ken Daneyko, a player with little offense to his game, was a minus for seven of his 18 seasons in New Jersey. He has been a stay-at-home defenseman who for several years has played against the tougher lines, either the No. 1 or the No. 2. Because his role never changed, his plus/minus fluctuated depending on the team he played with, whether they were strong or not.

Up front, Mike Keane, Mike Ricci and Shayne Corson are defense-first forwards whose biggest plus/minus numbers came when they were in their prime offensively. Their reputations are built on what they do defensively against the other team's top line, especially Keane.

The stars are the ones who generate points, score goals and get the attention. Role players, though, are conscious of their plus/minus rating, particularly when it's a negative number. But when the number is positive, the plus/minus is one statistic that can help them keep their heads up and encourage them about the jobs they are doing.

Brian Engblom is a hockey analyst for ESPN. He played 11 seasons in the NHL as a defenseman and won three Stanley Cups in six seasons with the Montreal Canadiens.








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