Darren Pang

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Tuesday, December 4
 
Statistics don't tell the story between the pipes

By Darren Pang
Special to ESPN.com

What's the best way to evaluate a goalie?

Patrick Roy
Among goalies with 20 games played, Colorado's Patrick Roy has the best GAA (1.85)...
The obvious choice would be wins. After all, if you win 6-5 or 2-1, who cares, right? A win is a win. But if you win 6-5 and give up three bad goals, you can still have a team that is looking behind them and worrying instead of playing up to their potential. If you lose and stand on your head just to keep it close, your team is more confident. Go figure.

In a Colorado game a few seasons ago, Patrick Roy was pulled and replaced with Craig Billington so a few of the Avs' top players could rest during the change. In the time Billington was in net, the Avs tallied a go-ahead goal and the score stood. He got the win, despite playing only one minute. What an effort! It wasn't such a good thing for Roy, who actually played the game and played well.

Let's go to goals-against average. How many goalies have you seen that have a minuscule regular-season GAA because they play on a team that is committed to great team defense (Ottawa last year is an example). The goalie faces few quality shots and is able to get on a roll. Then comes the playoffs when everything is magnified. If you give up an extra 1.5 goals per game and lose because A) the team can't score for you or B) you're facing situations you rarely saw during the regular season.

Last year, was Ottawa's Patrick Lalime a better goalie than Toronto's Curtis Joseph? In the regular season he was, based on GAA. But Lalime faced fewer quality chances against. If Cujo faces the same 25 shots against per game, I guarantee that Toronto gave up twice as many odd man breaks than Ottawa. Which saves are tougher -- a perimeter shot in an even-man situation or a one-timer from the slot on a two-on-one? We all know the answer.

Is save percentage the answer? The goalie that faces 30 shots from the perimeter because his team is so sound will likely have a better save percentage than a goalie that faces 18 shots, yet eight were on the power play and four other good ones were two-on-ones. Shots can be so overrated. A solution would be to break up the shots into categories: quality chances, scoring chances and just shots on goal. In the end the best goalie will be the one with the most confidence and presence in net.

Nikolai Khabibulin
...while Tampa Bay's Nikolai Khabibulin has the best save percentage (.933).
When Grant Fuhr was at his best, the Oilers would win 2-1 or 10-8. Every game was different. What separated Fuhr from the others was his rare ability to give up bad goals when he had a big lead. But if it was a one-goal game and the other team was pressuring, it was Fuhr who would make the save on a breakaway with a minute left and preserve the win. These are called big saves, momentum-stopping saves. He could put a bad goal so far in the back of his mind that it had no effect. He deleted the goal like it never happened. Not many goalies can do that. In a pressure situation, there is no goalie I admired more when I was growing up than Fuhr. He never won a Vezina (his stats were never good enough, go figure) nor did he win a Conn Smythe (how many games did he steal en route to four Cups?).

How about Patrick Roy? He wasn't even nominated for the Vezina last season. He won 40 games in one season for the first time, he broke Terry Sawchuk's record for most wins in a career and he had a minuscule GAA (2.21). But with his leadership, he may as well be the captain of his team. How do you measure that? You measure it in championships and tough games.

The Vezina Trophy goes to the best goalie judged by the league's general managers. The Jennings Trophy goes to the goaltending tandem on the team that has allowed the fewest goals. The Jennings is a team award, as far as I am concerned.

The best way to determine the best goalie in the league is to assemble a panel of former goalies that are close to the game (i.e. John Davidson, Greg Millen, Darryl Reaugh, Chico Resch, John Garrett and me, of course!). The goaltending fraternity is a unique one because you have to have been there to understand what it is all about. We understand. We also know that stats don't tell the entire story. Team chemistry includes the belief in one another in the toughest of times. There is also a very important intangible called heart. A goalie can't put his arms up in utter exasperation when he gives up a goal from the blue line through a screen and tell the world, "I never saw it!!!!!" He is blaming someone and it is NOT himself. In the end, the goalie has to be able to tell the team, "It was my fault. I'll get them back next game." The team feeds off that kind of character.

The bottom line is this: Stats don't mean much if you win the Stanley Cup. But you have to put yourself in a position to win it all, and that is where stats like GAA and save percentage come into play.

In the end, I'll take quality wins against the best teams -- regardless of the score -- and call it a day.

Darren Pang, a former goaltender with the Chicago Blackhawks, is a hockey analyst for ESPN.









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