| | | Last week, I lost a dreaded "10 Percent" Game -- when the Panthers lost and failed to cover at home against the Packers -- and since it's such a frustrating experience, you'll just have to sit there and listen to me vent for a few paragraphs.
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Bill vs. Bailey |
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Seems like everybody thinks they can handicap NFL games, so Page 2 has decided to turn to its two experts in the field of prognostication. Predicting games isn't an exact science, so each week we'll have Page 2 columnist Bill Simmons, the Sports Guy, go head-to-head with Bailey the Sports Dog.
Simmons' credentials you probably know: He's a die-hard Boston sports nut who represents the common fan.
Bailey is a Samoyed husky-black Labrador cross with a nose for pigskin. He's lived in Colorado, Chicago and Seattle while loyally following college and pro football for the past 14 years.
Each week, Bill and Bailey will select their four best choices against the spread. We'll also keep a running score throughout the season.
Simmons will use his extensive football knowledge, the Internet and key newspapers to come up with his can't-miss picks. Bailey will choose between two dog treats representing teams in each matchup.
Of course, these are only predictions and not recommendations for wagering. Simmons and Bailey are just doing this for pride. OK, maybe a little kibble but that's all. |
What's a "10 Percent" Game? Let's say you wager on 10 football games every two weeks. Nine out of those 10 games will turn out the way they're supposed to -- the right team will win, the right circumstances will unfold, and if you're on the wrong end of things at the end of four quarters, you made a bad pick.
For instance, last Sunday I took Denver laying five to the Ravens at home. Horrible selection. The Ravens were coming off an embarrassing loss in Cincinnati and you knew the champs would be ticked that everybody was already writing them off. Quite simply, that game meant more to them than it meant to Denver.
Every time a situation like that happens, I always remember a moment in David Halberstam's book about the 1979-80 Trail Blazers -- "Breaks of the Game," my favorite sports book of all-time -- when he remembered the time the Blazers crushed the Sixers by something like 40 points during the season after they won the title. And after the game, one of the Blazers held up his championship ring and said defiantly, "We showed them that we didn't win these rings by no (bleeping) mistake!"
That's what the Ravens game was like last week. You could almost picture them in the locker room saying that to one another.
Anyway, I made a lousy bet by picking the Broncos. I accept that. Every two weeks, I have one goal: pick at least six winners out of the next 10 bets. If I can go 6-3, then the 10 Percent Game makes it 6-4 and that's still good enough to win money.
Once again, you ask ... what the heck is the 10 Percent Game?
The answer: when you gamble on football, you control your own destiny in nine of those 10 games. Make nine good picks and you're going 9-0. Make five good picks and you're going 5-4. And so on.
But there's that 10th game where you can't control your destiny, when weird things happen, when the right team doesn't win, when the rug gets yanked out from under you, when you find yourself hollering obscenities and firing the remote control around the room like a Frisbee, when your dog is running for cover, when you're looking up into the sky and screaming, "This isn't fair! This isn't fair!" And that happens about once every 10 games. And you just need to accept it.
That's the 10 Percent Game.
|  | | Bill Simmons scouts a Pats game. |
The Panthers lost 28-14 at home last week, and I'm telling you ... they were a beautiful pick. Everybody loved Green Bay. The line moved from "3" to "4" during the week. In my weekly Picks Pool, 14 of the 16 people took the Packers and six of them made the Packers their "Double Down" pick (the pick of the week). Since the Packers had rolled off impressive wins against Washington and Detroit and it looked like they finally complemented Brett Favre with a running game, they were getting a "Super Bowl Sleeper" buzz. And as an added bonus, they rolled off a big victory Monday night; everyone overrates a team that looks good on Monday night for the following week.
(Any time the forces line up on one side like that, you have to go the other way. I mean, you have to. If gambling was easy, there wouldn't be a Gamblers Anonymous and bookies wouldn't drive Lexuses with Christmas wreaths on them.)
As for the Panthers, they're pretty good. Not great ... pretty good. They're competent. They're capable. They can throw the ball, their defense isn't bad and they don't make many mistakes. At home, getting 4, they were a beautiful pick.
So what happened? They charged out to a 7-0 lead and stifled the Pack in the first quarter. Early in the second quarter, they forced a turnover and found themselves around the 35-yard line, where quarterback Chris Weinke connected with Muhsin Muhammad on a long touchdown pass to make the score 13-0. In the Sports Guy Mansion, I was high-fiving myself until I caught the yellow flag resting on the field. Holding. Ugh. And of course, the Panthers got knocked out of field position and ended up punting. They could have put the game away with that TD. Seriously.
By the end of the first half, the Pack had rallied back to 7-6; I was still feeling good though, especially because the Panthers were getting the ball to start the second half. So the Packers kick off to the electrifying rookie Steve Smith, who promptly coughs it up on his own 25. Uh-oh. You don't pull the ball on the ground in your own territory with Favre hanging around. Within about 2.3 seconds, it's 12-7 and the Packers are going for the two-point conversion ... which they get to make it 14-7. Not good ... but still manageable.
So the Packers kick off again to Smith ... and he promptly fumbles for the second time in about two minutes. Packers ball. Incredible. Now players on the Carolina sidelines are hanging their heads, and Smith has a towel over his head, and Favre's cutting up the Panthers defense again ... and suddenly it's 21-7. Game over.
It happens that fast.
That's a 10 Percent Game. You never know when it will rear its ugly head, but it always does, usually about once every 10 wagers. Know this, embrace this, accept this. That's why they call it gambling.
One more note: Some readers have questioned the validity of this contest between me and the Canine That Couldn't Lose, thinking that I'm increasing my odds by making one set of picks as myself and another as the dog. Actually, that's not true -- Bailey belongs to Page 2 editor Jim Wilkie. Every week, Jim picks four matchups and puts doggie treats in front of two slips of paper that have each team's name on it. Whichever treat Bailey picks becomes his "pick" in that game -- then Bailey and Jim come up with a one-sentence explanation for that pick.
I'm not involved at all. In fact, I make my picks without even knowing who Bailey selected. But if he keeps on whupping my butt week after week, I might have to send a rottweiler down to Seattle to rough him up.
On to this week's picks ...
Bill Simmons' Week 4 NFL predictions
Season record: 7-5; last week: 2-2
Minnesota at New Orleans
I watched that Vikings game last week -- Tampa should have put them away and let them off the hook (classic Tony Dungy game) ... the Vikes also had a lucky play on their game-winning drive -- Daunte Cullpepper throwing into triple coverage, two of the Buccaneers colliding going for the interception and the third defensive back attempting the worst tackle in history, enabling Byron Chamberlain to scamper down the sidelines for about 40 yards ... just awful ... anyway, I don't like the way the Vikes are playing at all ... and the Saints are better than they've shown (laying three at home doesn't seem like enough) ... if that's enough, we're long overdue for the Ricky Williams Breakout Week.
-- The pick: Saints 26, Vikings 17
New England at Miami
How many more Patriots victories before Ewing Theory creator Dave Cirilli starts doing the talk show circuit? ... and the Pats are getting 10 points? ... how can Vegas continue to underestimate The Most Powerful Force In Sports?
-- The pick: Patriots 20, Dolphins 19
Chicago at Atlanta
Three dead and 45 injured in the Fantasy stampede for Maurice Smith earlier this week ... and if you think the Falcons (3½-point favorites) lose that much with Smith instead of Jamal Anderson, you're crazy ... by the way, when will UPN create a sitcom called "Two Guys, A Girl and Five Cadaver Ligaments" where Anderson, Terrell Davis and Shea Ralph all live in an apartment together? Just the three of them sitting on the sofa with crutches strewn about everywhere. I would watch it.
-- The pick: Falcons 27, Bears 20
Carolina at San Francisco
Back to the well with the Panthers, getting 6½ in San Fran on Sunday night ... redeem yourself, Steve Smith.
-- The pick: Panthers 27, 49ers 24
Bailey's Week 4 NFL predictions
Season record: 10-2; last week: 3-1
|  | | Bailey |
(As told to Jim Wilkie, editor for Page 2.)
Bill, I was told there wouldn't be any math.
Rottweilers? Uh-oh.
Minnesota at New Orleans
This was a tough one, but the spicy foods in New Orleans just don't agree with me. Gotta take the Vikings plus 3½ points.
-- The pick: Vikings 24, Saints 22
Chicago at Atlanta
This reminds me of that old fake throwing the tennis ball trick. Hate that! I suffered through many years of disappointing Bears teams in Chicago, so I won't get fooled again. I like the Falcons minus 3½ points.
-- The pick: Falcons 17, Bears 7
Green Bay at Tampa Bay
I'm a creature of habit, and the Pack have been good to me all season. Throw in the 3 points and it's an easy choice.
-- The pick: Packers 20, Buccaneers 18
Carolina at San Francisco
San Francisco's no treat, so I'll take the Panthers and 6½ points.
-- Prediction: 49ers 29, Panthers 24 (Panthers cover)
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