ESPN.com - NFL - War Room: Ravens at Jaguars

COMMUNITY
	Letters to Editor Send a letter
BACKSTAGE
	The Magazine ESPN Radio


		ALSO SEE War Room: Week 10 previews

ESPN.com
NFL

Thursday, November 11
War Room: Ravens at Jaguars

The War Room

Baltimore offense vs. Jacksonville defense

RAVENS OFFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:
Run 11

Pass 30

Tot. Yds. 27

Scoring 21

Int's allowed 11

Sacks allowed 24

JAGUARS DEFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:

vs. Run 9

vs. Pass 2

Total yds. allowed 1

# of Ints. 13

# of Sacks 35

Turnover differential +10

The Raven offense had a breakout game last Sunday, although, unfortunately, it came against the Cleveland Browns and the worst overall defense in the NFL, so Baltimore's improvement on the offensive side of the ball is hard to gauge. RB Errict Rhett rushed for 117 yards and two touchdowns while the Ravens racked up over 200 yards on the ground as a team. QB Tony Banks, who wasn't asked to do much, had a respectable game going 14-for-25 and didn't throw any interceptions.

This week, the Ravens face a Jacksonville defense ranked number one in the NFL in total yards surrendered and number one in the NFL in scoring defense. The only possible chink in the Jacksonville defense has been the team's inability to stop the run.

Rhett is suffering from a thigh bruise but should be ready to go on Sunday. If he is not 100%, Baltimore will be in for a long day. Jacksonville's defense is athletic and pursues the football well, so if the Ravens are to have success running the football, they will have to run the ball right at the Jacksonville defense. Rhett is a cutback runner and is capable of breaking big plays against defenses that over pursue.

QB Banks will also need to play a great game if the Ravens are to win. Look for coach Brian Billick to game plan a lot of waggle and roll-out plays to protect Banks from the Jacksonville pass rush and give him time to make his reads.

Jacksonville's defense is having its best year ever and is on pace to set a record for fewest points allowed in a 16-game season. The Jags lead the league in sacks and are number one in overall defense. The addition of rookie RDC Fernando Bryant has proven integral to the team's success on the defensive side of the ball, as Bryant has proven that he can play on an island and has allowed defensive coordinator Dom Capers to be more aggressive in situations where the Jaguars need to pressure the passer.

Don't expect Jacksonville to gamble on the defensive side of the ball this week, as the Ravens have a paucity of offensive weapons. ROLB Kevin Hardy and RDE Tony Brackens, playing in Capers' zone blitz schemes, are perfectly capable of pressuring Banks without help from the safeties, so Jacksonville will not often put the secondary in a position where it can be burned for a big play.

Key for the Jacksonville defense this weekend will be to shut down Baltimore RB Rhett, who has had some big games so far this season. Rhett can be stopped by defensive players who stay in their lanes and string him out, sideline to sideline. Backside penetration also makes Rhett susceptible to being dragged down for a loss. Unless Jacksonville experiences some breakdowns in the secondary, the Jags should hold the Raven offense to less than two touchdowns.

Jacksonville offense vs. Baltimore defense

	JAGUARS OFFENSE
	Ranking in the NFL:
	Run	1
	Pass	20
	Tot. Yds.	9
	Scoring	4
	Int's allowed	4
	Sacks allowed	12

	RAVENS DEFENSE
	Ranking in the NFL:
	vs. Run	10
	vs. Pass	3
	Total yds. allowed	2
	# of Ints.	8
	# of Sacks	19
	Turnover differential	-4

Since RB Fred Taylor's return from a hamstring injury two weeks ago, the Jaguar offense has been running like a well-oiled machine -- averaging 37 points per game via ideal balance. Taylor has the strength and breakaway speed to force opponents to play seven and eight man fronts to neutralize him. In turn, things open up for the passing game.

On Sunday against Atlanta, QB Mark Brunell had one of his best games of the season, going 14-27 for 203 yards and three touchdowns. With WR's Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell facing more single coverage situations, Brunell has gotten on track and is starting to look like his old self after getting off to a slow start this year.

This week against Baltimore, the Jags face one of the more talented front sevens in the league. LOT Tony Boselli will have his work cut out for him against RDE Michael McCrary, who has a nice blend of strength and quickness. Even more pressure will be on ROT Leon Searcy. Searcy will be responsible for keeping LDE Rob Burnett at bay -- Burnett is in the midst of his best season as a pro.

Look for Jacksonville to run the ball right at Baltimore, with Taylor using his quicks to cutback and get loose for some big gainers. Head coach Tom Coughlin will try to run the ball until the Ravens begin to overplay the run, and then use play action to look up top for Smith and McCardell.

First and foremost, the Ravens need MLB Ray Lewis to be his usual, run-stuffing self. If Lewis has a solid game on the inside and can get off guard and center blocks quickly, Jacksonville will have a difficult time running the football.

The Ravens have a solid front seven, so don't expect to see Baltimore overplaying the run early in the game -- defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis will experiment to see how his troops fare without help against a talented Jacksonville offensive line. Better for the Ravens to give up rushing yards early than get burned deep, something to which the team's gambling secondary is often susceptible.

One way to stop Taylor, particularly when the Jags run him outside, is with backside pursuit from the offside DT or DE. The Ravens tackles, Tony Siragusa and Larry Webster are better at stuffing the run when the ball is coming right at them, and have trouble pursuing the ball from the backside.

Another Raven liability could be the play of LOLB Peter Boulware against the run. Boulware has not recovered from a shoulder injury, and while he has been effective rushing the passer, could be vulnerable to an explosive ball carrier like Taylor. Baltimore's defensive backs must also not take too many risks, as Jacksonville's Brunell will make them pay.

Special teams

NFL RANK
Category	BAL	JAC
Punt return avg.	23	22
Kickoff return avg.	21	30
Opp. punt return avg.	10	17
Opp. kickoff ret. avg.	10	28
Time of possession	2	21

Week in and week out, Baltimore fans are waiting for Raven PR Jermaine Lewis to break a big return like he has so many times in his career. The problem is, his return team is not giving him enough time to make his first move and explode up the field. If Baltimore can improve its punt return blocking schemes, Lewis should get loose for a TD at least once this season. Jacksonville is in the bottom half of the league in both punt and kick return coverage, so perhaps this is Lewis' week. Jacksonville P Bryan Barker and Baltimore's Kyle Richardson each rank in the top half of the league but Richardson is having a much better season dropping the ball inside the 20, as he has done a league-high 25 times.

Key matchups

Ravens QB Tony Banks vs. Jags defensive coordinator Dom Capers
Dom Capers can't wait to attack Tony Banks in this one, as his 34 zone blitz defense is starting to work to perfection. Banks is a quarterback who can become confused and will either fumble or put the football up for grabs if he is pressured. Jacksonville will pressure him and he will make mistakes this weekend.

Jacksonville LOT Tony Boselli vs. Baltimore RDE Michael McCrary
Although Boselli is not playing at 100% because of an injury, McCrary is suffering through a mediocre season so far in 1999. These are two of the best players at their position, and if McCrary can find his game, it could really help this Baltimore defense. Putting pressure on Jag QB Brunell is critical if the Ravens are to have any chance for a win.

Jacksonville DC Aaron Beasley vs. Baltimore WR Jermaine Lewis
Lewis is the forgotten man in the Baltimore offense, but he is their only legitimate big play threat. Beasley is a good cover corner, and if he can go deep with Lewis and not require help, it will give the Jags all the ammunition they need to blitz Banks and play very aggressively up-front.

Baltimore will win if...

QB Tony Banks doesn't turn the ball over and give Jacksonville a short field. Banks has not seen pressure this year like the pressure that he will face from Jacksonville's defense. He has been fumble and turnover-prone his entire career, and the Jags will come at him with every blitz that they have. If the Baltimore OL doesn't pass protect and give Banks some time, this game could be over in a hurry.

The Raven defense can slow down RB Fred Taylor. Jacksonville is difficult to game plan against, because of their versatility. If the Ravens sit back and cover Jags WRs McCardell and Smith, Taylor will have big run lanes, and if they put "eight in the box" to stop Taylor, the Jacksonville WRs get single coverage matchups, which they can exploit. The Ravens will likely try to mix it up with a variety of blitzes that are designed to guess properly and create some big hits on Taylor.

RB Errict Rhett has a big day and Ravens win time of possession statistic. The Best chance for Baltimore to stay competitive in this game is to run the clock and keep Mark Brunell & Co. on the sideline. They must get positive yardage on first and second down, and Rhett needs at least a 25-carry, 100-yard rushing day. If the Ravens have a lot of "3 and outs" on offense, Jacksonville will score early and force Baltimore to play catch-up football, which they are ill-prepared to do.

Jacksonville will win if...

They score early and make Baltimore play catch-up football. The Jaguars would love to force the Ravens out of their game plan by scoring early and making Baltimore abandon the run game. Tony Banks is not a quarterback who wants to throw on every down, and if that is what is necessary, the Jaguar defense will come after him from every direction.

They take away the Raven run game and make Tony Banks beat them. The Jaguars are dramatically improved in the secondary, and as a result, they will try to single cover the Raven WRs, which will allow them to commit eight defenders to the run to stop Baltimore RB Errict Rhett. They will force Tony Banks to make plays at QB and not allow him to be an offensive caretaker.

They convert in the red zone on offense. Although they have improved in the last few weeks in this area, Jacksonville is still kicking too many field goals and not scoring enough touchdowns from the red zone. It usually doesn't affect them because they are so explosive on offense, but they need to start coming away with seven, rather than three, and this would be a good week to do it.

The War Room edge
Although both of these teams are coming off nice wins last weekend, they are not close, in terms of talent. Jacksonville is the scariest team in the NFL right now because of their versatility on offense and their new attacking style of play on defense. They are impossible to game plan for, as they can beat you in a number of ways. They will make life miserable for Raven QB Tony Banks and RB Errict Rhett, and although the Ravens' defense, led by Ray Lewis, is certainly a good one, they can't stop this Jacksonville offense. The Ravens will come back to earth in Jacksonville.

The War Room Material from The War Room.
Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


		ESPN INSIDER Copyright 1995-99 ESPN/Starwave Partners d/b/a ESPN Internet Ventures. All rights reserved. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form. ESPN.com Privacy Policy. Use of this site signifies your agreement to the Terms of Service.