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Thursday, November 11
War Room: Panthers at Rams


Carolina offense vs. St. Louis defense
PANTHERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 16
Pass 6
Tot. Yds. 7
Scoring 10
Int's allowed 10
Sacks allowed 28
   
RAMS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 1
vs. Pass 18
Total yds. allowed 9
# of Ints. 11
# of Sacks 22
Turnover differential -10
Carolina's offense, much maligned over the last three weeks, came to life in a big way last weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles. QB Steve Beuerlein looked more sure of himself, finishing the game 21-34 for 281 yards and three touchdowns. The Carolina running game also got untracked -- the Panthers ran for 111 yards as a team and RB Fred Lane finished the game with 20 carries for 74 yards.

Buerlein had a particularly good day finding WR Muhsin Muhammad, who finished with eight catches for 88 yards and two touchdowns. Muhammad had been slowed by a sore hamstring, but came back strong against Philadelphia and was effective gaining yards after the catch.

This weekend, the Panthers face a Rams defense that has been solid defending the pass and run this season. Carolina will need to establish a medium range passing game early to loosen up the Rams front seven. If Beuerlein can find Muhammad, WR Patrick Jeffers and TE Wesley Walls with some success early, it should open up the running game for Lane and RB Tim Biakabutuka. Biakabutuka has been hobbled by a bad ankle over the last few weeks, and his healthy return would add a much needed big-play threat out of the backfield.

The Rams get LOLB Leonard Little back from an eight game suspension this week, but it is questionable whether Little will play against Carolina this weekend. If he does, Little will bring an outside speed rushing presence that should allow what is already a talented front seven to put even more pressure on opposing QBs. If Little doesn't play, the Carolina front four is perfectly capable of pressuring the passer without him. RDT Kevin Carter is Pro-Bowl bound, and had three sacks last week against the Lions, and RDE Grant Wistrom has also done his part pressuring the passer.

Getting to Buerlein will be key this week, as the Rams secondary has proven vulnerable in St. Louis' last two games. Carolina will look to pick-on undersized RDC Dexter McCleon by lining WR Muhammad opposite him as often as possible. Muhammad is a physical receiver who is good in traffic and has the size to go up and get the football, which could pose a problem against McCleon, whose confidence is shaken after his miserable performance against the Lions.

Last week, Carolina opened up its offense to give Beuerlein more options and he responded with his best game of the year. When Carolina comes out with four- and five-wide receiver sets, it will be up to the St. Louis front four to generate pressure. If the Rams have to resort to the blitz to put pressure on Beuerlein, it will expose their vulnerable secondary.

St. Louis offense vs. Carolina defense
RAMS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 7
Pass 3
Tot. Yds. 1
Scoring 1
Int's allowed 5
Sacks allowed 20
   
PANTHERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 29
vs. Pass 13
Total yds. allowed 24
# of Ints. 3
# of Sacks 21
Turnover differential -7
The Rams' high-octane attack, which feasted on opposing offenses over the first seven weeks of the season, has come back to earth over the last two weeks. Tennessee and Detroit did the obvious -- dropping six and sometimes seven players into the secondary, forcing QB Kurt Warner and his talented receivers to take the short stuff underneath.

Part of the problem for the Rams has been the team's inability to run the football. Last week against the Lions, RB Marshall Faulk carried the ball 11 times for 15 yards. This week, St. Louis needs to establish the run early to prevent the Panthers from showing constant nickel and dime packages, and therefore the Ram offensive line needs to raise its level of play. Carolina showed that it was susceptible to the ground attack, surrendering 7.3 yards per carry last Sunday to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Look for the Rams to disguise the run, as Carolina will undoubtedly be looking pass, so Faulk should get a healthy dose of draw plays and counters. Faulk will also be a force coming out of the backfield, as both of Carolina's OLB's have quick upfield moves, but struggle sideline to sideline and could be susceptible if forced to cover a guy with Faulk's athletic ability coming out of the backfield.

After a solid performance last Sunday against the offensively inept Eagles, Carolina's defense encounters the other end of the offensive spectrum this weekend against the Rams. Against Philly last weekend, the Panthers defense played a sound, but not entirely flawless game. Last week, LDC Doug Evans had an interception but was whistled for two pass interference calls. Evans will have his hands full this week regardless of whichever St. Louis WR (Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt or Az-zahir Hakim) he is on during the game. All have vertical speed as well as the ability to turn one broken tackle into a big play. Carolina will have to make a decision which receiver to roll coverage toward, and will probably play a lot of zone coverage in this game.

Another problem for the Panthers will be creating pressure on St. Louis QB Warner. If given ample time, Warner is capable of picking apart opposing offenses, so Carolina needs a big game from 37 year-old LOLB Kevin Greene. Greene had a fumble recovery and two sacks against the Eagles last week and will need to get to Warner if Carolina is to be competitive in this game. Greene can be a liability in coverage situations, so look for George Seifert to use Greene on a situational basis.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category CAR STL
Punt return avg. 30 3
Kickoff return avg. 5 1
Opp. punt return avg. 3 14
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 8 26
Time of possession 26 5
Az-zahir Hakim and Tony Horne (who returns this week from a four game drug suspension) are two of the best punt and kick return men in the league, respectively. They will face Carolina coverage units that are both ranked near the top of the league in punt and kick coverage, so this will be an interesting match-up. Carolina boasts its own game-breaking kick return man in Michael Bates, who has already gone to the house once this season. Carolina PR Eric Metcalf has been a huge disappointment and is averaging only 5.7 yards per return. The Rams lost P Rick Tuten indefinitely and it will be interesting to see whether his replacement has any impact on the outcome of the game.

Key matchups
  • Panthers WR Muhsin Muhammed vs. Rams DC Dexter McCleon
    Muhammed is a big play guy who can stretch any defense, and McCleon is really in a slump and had a disastrous game last week in the Rams' loss to Detroit. Carolina will test him early.

  • Rams RB Marshall Faulk vs. Panthers LB's Barrow and Green
    Not only is Faulk a running threat, but he's doubly dangerous out of the backfield as a receiver. Both Barrows and Green are up-field guys who like to put pressure on the quarterback, and if they are forced to cover Faulk in passing situations, it is a matchup that they will likely lose.

  • St. Louis LDE Kevin Carter vs. Carolina ROT Chris Terry
    Carter is a wily veteran who can either rush off the edge or use a spin move to come inside. Terry is an improving young rookie, but he may need help from his TE in this one, which would affect the Carolina blocking scheme. Carter may be too much of a load for this rookie.

    Carolina will win if...
  • They can put pressure on Rams QB Kurt Warner. If Warner has time to throw the football and let his receivers finish their routes, he will make big plays in the passing game. The only chance to beat the Rams on offense, is to get to Warner and force him to throw the football before the play develops.

  • They can run the football and dominate in time of possession. Carolina must keep the ball out of Kurt Warner's hands and limit the Rams' number of offensive possessions. If they can run the football and control the clock, it will make this game low-scoring and give them a chance to steal it at the end. If they have a lot of "3 and outs" or 3rd and longs, St. Louis will destroy them.

  • They can keep the game close early. St. Louis has made a living destroying their opponents by scoring early and taking the opposition out of their game plan by forcing them to play catch-up football. Carolina can't do that, but if they keep this thing close going into the fourth quarter, they have a chance to pull it out. They cannot get in an offensive shootout.

    St. Louis will win if...

  • They score early and force Carolina to play catch-up football. That has been the Rams "signature" for the entire season until the last two weeks. Scoring early allows their defense to "tee off" on opposing quarterbacks and forces the opposition to throw the football more than they would like, and it allows St. Louis to gamble and play wide-open football.

  • They play good red zone defense. They have not done a great job in the last couple of weeks of holding opponents in the red zone. They must force Carolina to get field goals rather than score touchdowns. If that happens, the Panthers will not be able to accumulate enough points to stay with the Rams.

  • QB Kurt Warner gets good protection by his OL. Warner has gotten more pressure in the last two weeks than he has the entire season, especially from the right side of his offensive line. He is a surgeon that can pick apart an opposing defense if he has time to throw the football, and the Rams must protect well enough to let the passing routes develop, which will allow Warner to find the matchup that he likes.

    The War Room edge
    Although a lot of people may think that the Rams are starting a downhill slide, they should be fine as they have a very easy schedule in the second half of the season. Even in their two back-to-back losses, they are still moving the football and scoring enough to win games, but their defense, especially their secondary, has taken a little bit of a dip. Carolina has some offensive talent and explosiveness, but they are inconsistent, and QB Kurt Warner should be able to pick their secondary apart if his offensive line gives him pass protection. George Seifert has done a nice job in his first year in Carolina, but the Rams have too many weapons on offense and will spread the field and make big plays. St. Louis gets back on track with another offensive outburst.

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